LIB 10.0%
Incumbent MP
Gary Blackwood, since 2006.
Geography
Eastern Victoria. Narracan covers the Shire of Baw Baw and north-eastern parts of the Cardinia council area. Narracan covers the towns of Warragul, Narracan, and a number of smaller rural towns between Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley.
Redistribution
Narracan lost Moe to Morwell, and gained an unpopulated part of Gembrook. This change increased the Liberal margin from 7.3% to 10.0%.
History
Narracan was first created at the 1967 election. It has been held by the Liberal Party for most of that time, except for the period from 1999 to 2006.
Narracan was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Jim Balfour, who had previously held the seat of Morwell from 1955 to 1967. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government until 1977.
Narracan was won in 1982 by John Delzoppo of the Liberal Party. He served in a variety of Opposition frontbench positions during the 1980s, and when the Liberal Party won power in 1992, he was elected Speaker, serving in the role until his retirement in 1996.
In 1996, Narracan was won by Florian Andrighetto, also a Liberal. Andrighetto held the seat for one term, losing Narracan to the ALP’s Ian Maxfield in 1999.
Maxfield held the seat for two terms. He increased his margin to 6.8% in 2002, but a swing of over 9% in 2006 saw him lose to the Liberal Party’s Gary Blackwood.
Gary Blackwood has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Gary Blackwood is not running for re-election.
- Michael Abelman (Liberal Democrats)
- Tony Wolfe (Independent)
- Alyssa Weaver (Greens)
- Austin Cram (Animal Justice)
- Sophia De Witt (Democratic Labour)
- Casey Murphy (One Nation)
- Ian Honey (Independent)
- Brendan Clarke (Family First)
- Leonie Blackwell (Freedom Party)
- Wayne Farnham (Liberal)
- Annemarie McCabe (Independent)
Assessment
Narracan is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Blackwood | Liberal | 23,207 | 51.7 | -3.5 | 55.7 |
| Christine Maxfield | Labor | 15,946 | 35.5 | +6.1 | 31.9 |
| William Hornstra | Greens | 2,679 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 |
| Carlo Ierfone | Independent | 1,613 | 3.6 | +3.6 | 3.7 |
| Guss Lambden | Independent | 1,425 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 2.8 |
| Informal | 2,559 | 5.4 | +1.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Blackwood | Liberal | 25,724 | 57.3 | -4.0 | 60.0 |
| Christine Maxfield | Labor | 19,203 | 42.7 | +4.0 | 40.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Warragul, central, north and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.5% in Warragul to 62.8% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 58.3 | 10,398 | 26.6 |
| West | 58.6 | 3,601 | 9.2 |
| Warragul | 55.5 | 3,380 | 8.6 |
| North | 62.8 | 2,138 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 64.9 | 15,661 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 59.0 | 3,954 | 10.1 |
Election results in Narracan at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Labor held this seat before 2006, but it’s now safe for the Liberals and the margin barely had a dint in it in 2018. Is there something behind these results? Similar seats like this on the other side of Victoria (Macedon, Ripon, Eureka, Lara and the Bendigo’s) are all Labor seats and some are quite safe for Labor, are the demographics in this area very different?
Demographics out here are very different to the seats you mentioned. Lara, Eureka, Ripon and the Bendigos are part of major regional cities Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo; West Gippsland is much more rural and doesn’t compare. The biggest industry is probably farming out here whereas there is more diverse industry in the regional cities. This area is growing but nothing to the extent if becoming a city the size of Bendigo.
Macedon is in the mountains and has that progressive tree change demographic which does not exist here at all.
Also in the last time when Labor won it it included parts of the La Trobe valley such Moe/Newborough which used to be very strong for Labor often >70%. If these areas were not there then Labor would not have held it between 1999-2006. The Coal industry has been in decline for sometime and with it Labor’s vote in the La Trove valley has steadily decreased, while there has been no real change in voting patterns in Baw Baw Shire. Its unlikely this seat will be won by Labor in anytime soon.
There has been population growth in the towns of Drouin & Warragul with Cardinia part of this seat see population growth. In the short term Liberal will hold here but I think the electorate will shrink in future redistributions.
I will be curious of how much of a personal vote that Gary Blackwood has & weather the Liberals will suffer a swing against them, this literally the only seat where the Liberals can sustain a swing against them.
Again I try to compare like with like.. the corresponding federal seat is Monash which Mr Broadbent won by 2.8%.. he like Mr Blackwood has a personal vote but how high? Margin here for 7%
Apology 10% more to come
Took out the fed figures Drouin 52/58 lib and Warrigul 50/50 or 51/58 labors way
Here rough figures Drouin similar.. and Warrugul about 56/ 44 labors way. This is very rough .. but suggests alp swing given the personal vote of the retiring mp ..very close
Should be 56/44 liberal way
Ben Lucas has withdrawn his candidacy and endorsed Wayne Farnham.
Stunning that Labor committed to a hospital here for $600m+ but still don’t have a candidate with 11 days until prepolling? I know it is safe Liberal but are they just going to let Lib and Nat go head to head and hope that cuts the margin for next time?
Robbie the labor candidate for the seat of narracan is Justin Seddon
I don’t think the Labor have much of a chance winning here on these current boundaries, I suspect that this electorate is low priority.
The boundaries are indeed unfavourable for Labor esp with
The shifting of Moe to the adjoining seat. This area falls
In the Federal seat of Monash where the sitting mp Mr broadbent an honest and good
man only won by 2% I explain that result as due to demographics. The other fact is
That this seat tends to develop
Loyalty to mps of all political parties Mr Blackwood is now
To retire..this means his personal vote has gone.The liberals are favoured to win but
Given all circumstances a alp
upset win is possible
Mick,
This seat covers a fair part of La Trobe which improved for the LNP & for Monash there was a independent that received the vote at the expense of the LNP.
Yes agrees don’t know the percentage in Each seat of Monash and Latrobe .
But with demographic changes and the loss of
Mr Blackwoods personal
Vote I predict line ball
Leonie Blackwell the one to watch, she will pick up the personal vote.
The Nationals State Director has put out a press release that their candidate Shaun Gilchrist has sadly passed away.
Does anyone knows what happens now? Will the Election in the seat still go ahead?
Not sure think it causes a by-election
No. There would be a supplementary election, presumably in a few weeks (as in Frankston East in 1999, although probably with less at stake this time).
So existing election due 26/11
Cancelled no further prepoll
This makes the supplementary election interesting.. who can contest like us run off’s or candidates outside the just canc election
Condolences to Mr Gilchrist’s family.
Imagine if the election comes down to the difference of 1 seat, and we’re all kept waiting for a month…
@Mick I think it’s the same as a by-election, you pulp the votes and start again with freshly nominated (probably renominated for all except the Nats) candidates.
BUT – presumably the people of Narracan still need to vote for the LegCo this Saturday, right?
Some of the news reports say that the deceased candidate was facing sexual assault charges.
How did nobody notice until now? Surely this would be checked prior to pre-selection?
Yes, 2 or 3 counts of sexual assault and one of rape. Not proven yet, but was going to face court later in the month.
“Innocent until proven guilty” and all that, but surely you don’t want a candidate under a cloud… So far the Coalition don’t seem to have tried very hard with candidate vetting.
I don’t understand the LNP with their selection process, the candidates quality from those two parties has been below average this election.
Even labor’s candidate quality is terrible
This election really is a race to the bottom
People will still need to vote in the upper house, though.
No need to speculate on the candidate’s cause of death thank you very much!
Agree Ben, I read news reports and it seems that there is no sign of foul play involved.
Should this page be closed and move to a By-election page?
We can safely say this isn’t like Frankston East where the outcome of the seat was in doubt, Narracan will remain in the coalition’s hands regardless.
I’m tempted to just keep using this page, but no rush.
Very very sad on so many levels.
Family, victim and Shaun himself. I wish all the survivors all the best managing their personal emotions.
Separately, Nationals should change the webpage. Can’t imagine that they will run a candidate at the supplementary election.
Best
Pollster
Yes Ben, no need for a new page, just change the name of this one in due course.
After all the division of this campaign, a seat being delayed due to suicide is the last thing that was needed.
@Mick Quinlivan How much personal vote did the retiring incumbent have, doubt it would be 10%. What Labor has going for it in this area is the new developments in growing parts of the seat.
There are demographic changes look at Russell Broadbent ‘s vote in Monash.
Remember this seat was alp held by Ian maxfield..rough alp
Chance or not certain lib retain
@Mick Quinlivan, on federal figures from Monash i think Libs still hold this seat. Monash also contains Moe which Narracan doesn’t have.
Depends on candidates if Labor
Have a good candidate they can win..I am thinking a member
Of the Maxfield family. The Nats
Due to their POOR candidate selection are not credible here
I suspect the argument of having a voice in government , the loss of Mr Blackwood
‘S personal vote and ongoing demographic change make this seat very possible. For labor
Labor can win with a member of the Maxfield family just like the one who lost Morwell with a 10% swing…
Mick’s just taking the piss now…
Yes, agree Mark – Kate Maxfield suffered a swing against her in supposedly the safest of the Gippsland region seats. This area is trending away from Labor due to it being a mining/industrial area where the ALP has shown weakness in recent elections.
Mick
A good way to look at the mood in Narracan is the counted LC votes. So far in Narracan the LNP have 35.9% of the LC vote and Labor 22.7%. In Morwell the LNP have 27.0% (with no Moe vote in) and the ALP 25.3% – and of the Nats are standing at 55% in Morwell. In South Gippsland, the LNP are 37.8% and the ALP at 18.6% and the LNP are about 67%. So from that, it would seem there would have been a swing of a few % to the coalition if the election had gone ahead. Whey would there be a 13% swing to the ALP in a by election? And the ALP tried trotting out Kate Maxfield in Morwell – move her next door?
Further post has disappeared
But there are good reasons why
Labor could win here
Will Labor even bother to run here?
They will
Labor won’t win here but you would have to think the 10% margin will come down, maybe it will come down to 4-5%? Labor could get honeymoon period post-election, but this usually doesn’t last too long. I don’t think you can assume the government will face a usual by-election swing because it is simply too close to the recent election. Almost all by elections take place at least 6 months after the previous election. And ones that don’t (Bragg) see swings to the government.
Daniel, this isn’t a traditional by election because no candidate has resigned. It is more like a re-run election similar to the 2014 wa senate by election caused by lost/missing ballot papers.
As a result, I dont think there will be a big swing to labor, probably more status quo or even a slight swing to the coalition.
This could be a shocker. The loss of Moe to Morwell boosted
The lib 2pp vote by approx 3 %
But now the voters here have a choice of a voice in govt maybe for another 8 years or a voice in opposition. The choice of the Nat candidate left their vetting process to be sadly found wanting..in any case they will be no longer in the ballot. The sitting mp Mr Blackwood who won the seat from a Labor mp and was untroubled in holding the seat and his personal vote is gone. There are also demographic changes which showed up in The overlapping Federal seat Monash where Mr Broadbent a good and honourable man ..a rarity in the Morrison govt only won by 2.7%
Remember all politics is local. I
Would be happy to best on this seat if the vetting market is there. People have judged this seat as 10% liberal and safe. This is not the only metric to look at swings greater than 10% have often occurred
To bet
Mick, I’d be happy to bet with you on this result (depending on when it is). Would you take 10 to 1 odds?
Interesting Coalition dilemma here – the byelection has been caused by poor vetting in the Nats, but the state election overall showed that they were more effective campaigners than the Libs. Wonder if they might have a real go at winning in a byelection where they can focus all their resources in one area.