Mulgrave – Victoria 2022

You’re probably right Adda, I’ll soften my Andrews first-preference prediction to 49%.

Kevin Bonham’s thoughts on this #pollshapedobject are that the exit poll has, in this words, “more red flags than a resistance rally”. Following reasons:

– It’s “independent exit polling” by an unnamed entity, so probably not any kind of actual pollster.
– Sample size of “159”, so even if it were a perfect sample, a 57% result is well within margin of error.
– Prepoll skewed 3.4% against Andrews last time compared with the overall result.

So let’s wait and see…

I think it’s correct to say that Andrews vs Cook will be closer than Labor vs Libs, which is probably why there’s a narrative being pushed that Cook is a contender in 3AW and the Herald Sun. Andrews having a big swing against him personally would keep a narrative going.

But again, I think actually flipping the seat is a bridge too far. It wouldn’t be the first time that cookers have overhyped a psephologically laughable outcome. I remember many predictions Craig Kelly would be a contender in Hughes, with some cookers even positing he would be the next PM.

Even if Andrews gets a walloping and goes down to 40% primary, around 7% of the rest will come back from Greens (looking at federal booths they did quite well in the Hotham and Chisholm booths that overlap Mulgrave), and then leakage will take care of the rest.

Andrews will probably resign mid term (or even in 2023) and it will be a competitive byelection, especially if he resigns under a cloud, the Liberals have their shit together, or a credible independent runs.

Cook is not that credible independent. I am definitely not his target demographic but I don’t find Cook compelling at all, even compared to other right wing figures.

My projection for Mulgrave is:
– Andrews will win Mulgrave but at a reduced margin
– There will be a swing against Andrews in the ALP heartland South of the Monash Freeway but is partly made up for swings towards Andrews North of the Monash Freeway
– Much of the swings against Andrews will be competed by Cook, McLindon, and Piastrino
– There will be a swing against Labor in the Vietnamese, Eastern European, South Asian, Middle Eastern, and African voters but there will be a swing to Labor for the Chinese Voters
I feel the seat seems similar to the Federal seat of Parramatta in Sydney at a smaller scale with a mix of wealthy and poor areas in the same seat so their interest is different

@ Marh,
The Parramatta comparison is interesting. I feel that Wheelers Hill is similar to West Pennant Hills while Glen Waverley (neighbouring seat) is like Epping/Carlingford. I dont see Liberal voters in the wealthy parts of this seat voting tactically for Ian Cook etc. Areas such as Springvale/Noble Park are like Cabrammata/Yennora and Guildford highly disadvantaged areas. For this reason i dont see a single story in this seat unlike in Fowler where Liberal voters in affluent Abbotsbury were willing to vote tactically for Dai Le.

Makes me wonder how an independent in Parramatta (federal) may have performed given that the Labor candidate was parachuted from the Eastern Suburbs. Of course, Andrews is not a parachute.

Alp retain.
Andrew had the on the ground
Support of the local party
Who despite disliking him
Being imposed. Wanted a local alp mp.. he had the intelligence
To retain the support of the alp left in the area

Nicholas,
Dundas, in the eastern suburbs of Parramatta LGA, is in the federal electorate of Parramatta.

@watson watch

I’m not sure what you mean? Andrew Charlton is from Bellevue Hill.

Andrews hasn’t even been to Mulgrave, Mick.

Mark, I think Mick is referring to Andrew Charlton and the factors that enabled him to win in Parramatta federally.

Nicholas, whilst Andrew Charlton previously resided in Bellevue Hill, I also believe that he may have spent his childhood raised in Dundas so maybe Watson is referring to this fact.

Ah, I see. Fair enough. There was still a lot of disappointment over Charlton’s preselection, similar to Keneally. I guess the only point I’m making is that given the discussion of similarities between Mulgrave and Parramatta, it would have been interesting to see an independent run in Parramatta, although the circumstances (“parachute” versus Premier) may have made the comparison less useful.

I don’t think Charlton has a link to Dundas. I had heard that story when he was first floated but he never mentioned any connection to the area which he surely would have if it was true. I believe he grew up in the rural areas in the north of the Hills.

I feel the old boundaries of Mulgrave were more like the federal seat of Parramatta. The new boundaries are much more working class than Parramatta. The federal seat of Parramatta would never have a 16% margin. The suburb of Mulgrave itself is very much a middle class suburb where ‘the two Melbournes meet’, exactly like Parramatta, a middle class suburb where ‘the two Sydneys meet’. The main difference of course being that Parramatta is a second CBD which compares to nowhere in Melbourne.

Dan Andrews has not visited his own seat during the election period, instead supporting other candidates throughout Victoria. Ian Cook is an independent candidate, whom through media has achieved a somewhat of a cult following due to “Slug Gate” and iCook Foods debacle. Ian is being referenced by all other parties in this electorate ahead of Dan Andrews. There’s been a strong Put Dan Last campaign throughout Mulgrave. Even Dan Andrews Labor signs throughout the electorate doesn’t bear his face. Ian’s Black Shirts at prepolls have shown immense pressure to voters, and his personal presence and emotional story has been telling to all involved. Is Ian’s popularity enough to unseat Dan Andrews? That’s the telling question. It is the seat where it’ll come down to two candidates of Labor and Independent Ian Cook. This seat may show a surprise result, and a definite swing against Labor, and potentially will come down to postals and pre polling. Why didn’t Dan show up in Mulgrave might be as he believes he is safe. I’m not so sure after attending the pre poll both.

I do not rate the “he hasn’t been in his electorate” line at all. He’s the premier, he has more important seats to be seen in than his 15% safe seat. Straw clutching by an increasingly desperate minority. Mulgrave has infrastructure being built at a state level right now. It has not been forgotten.

Yep – these lines about not campaigning or not having Andrews in the electorate or limited signage can be quite adequately explained by the fact that… Labor actually isn’t at risk at all. Why play into their opponent’s hands by wasting resources? The Herald Sun would be gleeful at achieving that outcome.

Andrews probably did show his face at pre-poll because the insane units there are a threat to his well being.

@Telling

Victorians have become significantly poorer under the Andrews government. It’s Dan that’s a threat to one’s wellbeing, not the other way around.

You’re in for a bad evening, Mark. Personally, I’m very thankful that it was Andrews and not Guy in charge during the pandemic, and I’m not alone. Andrews will easily retain his seat.

Personally, I think the voting elsewhere and early is incredibly arrogant. Is he afraid of some sort of unscripted moment or actually meeting a real constituent? He is not going to lose but even so – it diminishes him.

@Redustributed

Labor would’ve been far better off had they dumped Dan.

He’s an incredibly arrogant and polarising individual. Speaking for myself, I’ve never despised a politician as much as I despise Daniel Andrews.

It absolutely affected my vote, having voted for/preferenced Victorian Labor at the past two elections when the premier was more ‘invisible’ so to speak.

Hi all,
If I write here, does that mean I get an update on the results?
Kind regards
Steve

Gee,

that’s odd.

@redistributed

Vic Police recommended he vote early, due to certain “events” being planned in the usual telegram groups.

Dan Andrews said that he pre-polled so that his family could all go to the polling booth together.

I also think he did it for his own safety.

It’s not a good look for him to prepoll in a different electorate but he may have genuine safety concerns since the people who oppose Dan Andrews tend to oppose him very significantly. I believe Dan Andrews has had to wear bullet proof vests in the past.

Has had to wear a bullet proof vest all right, In fact id reckon a bloke like him would have to be very careful everyday.
There’s a fairly simple reason for that, Because he is a crook, Thug, Liar, Bully and corrupt as they come and if you don’t believe me ? You and everybody who voted for him should have watched The Peta Credlin documentary “The Cult of Dan Andrew’s” on SKY the other night.
Not quite sure how he complies with the Code Of Practice ???

I think it’s fair to dismiss any commentator who rated Ian Cook a chance here from any consideration in terms of forecasting elections.

I’ll fix my words – they should be dismissed from their jobs. The sheer disinformation on the state of this electorate was egregious.

I take it then that my comments did not pass scrutiny ?

I hope you are right Daniel I absolutely hate Dan Vic Labor needs new and better leadership other then having this arrogant prick

From what I can tell only 11 seats out of 88 were won on first preferences, including Dan Andrews here. Quite an achievement given the 14 candidates running here. Some others were the very safe Nats seats, and some Labor seats in the north (Thomastown, Mill Park, Kalkallo) as well as Dandenong in the southeast and Lara in Geelong.

Impressive indeed that Andrews was elected on first preferences.

I think most of us would also have been impressed by Ian Cook’s 20% here were it not for the ridiculous “polling” claims that raised our expectations.

Its now laughable the claim that an Exit poll showed Ian Cook winning the seat 62-38% TPP.

@Nimalan. The people who believed or spouted that exit poll last week probably laughed at you, me and everybody who disputed that exit poll.

They probably still believe that exit “poll” and think the result was rigged.

An “exit poll” of only 159 people, with no data given for who conducted it, nor how. For all anyone knows, Ian Cook may as well have sent one of his mates around to select people who were happy to talk to him.

But because Neil Mitchell and the Murdoch papers were desperate for some anti-Dan data, it was breathlessly reported as if it were a real poll by a pollster that actually knew what they were doing…

Changing topic to the huge number of independents – hopefully people realise now that it doesn’t make a lick of difference how many randos you get on the ballot, you have to get real momentum behind ONE of them. Cook did concentrate the anti-Dan protest vote, but the rest of them (notably Andrew King who wanted to sponsor “50 independents”) ended up just wasting people’s time, paper and pencils.

All this “more independents” will do is it will force the Victorian government with possibly the backing of both major parties, to reform the system to changing the number of signatures and making the requirements tougher to register as a candidate. They could also abolish CPV or limit the number of boxes you need to number, but Labor may be hurt by this change.

Preference count here is clearly incorrect. Ian Cook is on 18% to the Liberals 17% yet several websites such as Pollbludger have this vs LIB.

I refuse to believe minor parties put the Liberals over Ian Cook. I don’t believe it.

Looking at the booth results, Springvale and Wheelers Hill barely swung but there were huge double digit swings in Mulgrave and Noble Park North. Ian Cook’s worst booth were in Springvale.

Daniel T, the preference count ALP vs Lib is only indicative at this stage and was the one chosen on election night. The VEC has declined to redo the preference count even though Ian Cook is ahead. I think the full distribution of preferences will show whether Cook or Liberals reach second place.

Daniel Andrews has today announced he will resign as Premier and Member for Mulgrave.

Interesting how the by election will go. It’s possible there may not even be a swing because of the strong anti-Dan campaigning at the state election. But that being said, in the 2014-2018 boundaries, this seat would be winnable for the Libs in a by-election. Not so much on the current ones though.

I suspect a small swing against the ALP, its possible the LNP won’t bother contesting here.

I wonder if this might signal the so called ‘beginning of the end’ where Labor is weakened and at risk of either losing or falling into minority by the next election. This happened twice before when two long serving leaders stepped down (Joan Kirner who succeeded John Cain lost her first election, as did John Brumby when he succeeded Steve Bracks)

Yoh An,
I would usually agree with that statement but until the LNP stop infighting and get behind John I don’t see them making much ground.

the victorian liberals might actually have to campaign on a platform other than merely “dan andrews bad”.

I agree with Louis, the problem with the Liberals base is that they are obsessed with Andrews with him now out of the picture i predict that they will find it harder to stick together. The other issue is that Labor support will recover in NW Melbourne as the pandemic and Andrews become increasingly distant memories. The right of the party were seduced of the prospect that they may one day soon represent St Albans, Broadmeadows and not affluent seats. What i would say is even if Libs win 19 seats like they did in 1992 they would only win a small majority while if they win 12 of Labor like they did in 2013 they would still be 5 seats short of a majority with Greens-Labor together can form a government.

THE KING IS DEAD.