Mornington – Victoria 2022

Labor got big swings to it in Mount Eliza which is in Dunkley which would suggest that this electorate could be in play

@Bob Labor also got swings to and against it in different booths in Mount Martha and Mornington and the Mornington booths at the 2022 federal election were a lot better for the Libs than the 2018 state election, meaning the Libs probably had big swings gainst them in Mornington in 2018. The booths for Mount Eliza at fedral averaged 52.78% for Liberal and 56.12% in 2018 so if they replicated that and didn’t get swings against them anywhere it could be close. The only question is whether there’s a reason for that swing to occur. Is there a reason for Mount Eliza to swing against the Liberal at sate like there was at federal level.

A big independent contest is emerging here with, Dr Kate Lardner contesting this seat as an independent, she’s an emergency doctor at the Frankston Hospital. Redbridge also has a poll out that showed she could also win the seat or at least make the 2CP.

Could be a very interesting contest if this continues, Liberals can’t form majority government if they’re losing seats like Mornington…

They won’t lose this… Flinders is proof, that seat was no mans land for the Teals at the federal election and the Libs even surprisingly got a swing to them in these parts at the fed election. (Flinders)

Liberal hold.

Liberal hold with a swing away, possibly with a 2CP of LIB vs independent. Kate Lardner has great credentials and could put up a fight.

I am skeptical of whether teals can win in an outer metropolitan or semi-rural seat. They tried in Flinders in 2019 (if you count Julia Banks as a teal) and 2022 but to no avail. There were other teal and/or Climate 200-backed candidates all over Austalia at the federal election but all the winners were in affluent metropolitan or inner-city electorates.

@Votante how do you explain Mackellar, which is an outer suburban (affluent) seat?

@echt I wouldn’t classify Mackellar as an outer suburban seat even though the AEC does. Culturally it’s very similar to Warringah and the other inner city north shore seats.

The northern tip of Mornington is much, much further away from Melbourne’s CBD than Mackeller is from Sydney’s CBD. Mackeller is within metropolitan Sydney. Mackeller is definitely one of the most affluent seats in the country, despite its distance from the CBD. Compared to the other teal-won seats, it’s a bit of an exception.

Dan, i actually think there is comparisons with the Northern Beaches and the Mornington Peninsula although it is not a perfect analogy.
1. I would say Portsea/Sorrento is very similar to Palm Beach very Elite areas that are home to the rich and famous. It is a similar geography as well surrounded by water on both sides on the tip on their respective metros
3. Mount Eliza is actually an elite upper class area home to two Elite Private schools, Toorak College and Pensiula Grammar
4. Others parts of the Peninsula such as Flinders, Merricks could be to Church Point/Bayview etc. Also very wealthy area.
5. Also i am not sure that i would compare Mackellar to inner city North shore seats i feel the Northern Beaches (except Clontarf, Fairlight and Seaforth-which feel like Mosman) has it is own culture. Mackellar actually has a lower percentage of professionals than most other wealthy seats a lot of Cashed up Bogans tradies etc. This can be explained by its narrow rejection of the Republic in 1999.

In terms of the Differences.
1. There is a working class industrial area around Hastings not the case in any part of Northern Beaches
2. There are some low income retirement areas around Rosebud etc (low SEIFA scores etc). Not the case in the Nothern beaches.
3. Some agricultural areas in the more inland parts of the Mornington Penisula.
4. One more point which i pointed out on the Wentworth thread. I compared to Warringah to Goldstein although i pointed out this this would be excluding the Forest District which is not as affluent or was the best area for TA in 2019.

In comparing the Mornington Peninsula to the Upper Northern Beaches, how does one account for the failure of independents to have much success in the Division of Flinders? Is it just a matter of never having had the right candidate?

Flinders is more of a semi rural electorate, and due to that, I would compare it with Robinson and Hume.

With Greg Hunt’s retirement, there wasn’t a local MP factor in Flinders, and his replacement being a woman helped to nullify Morrison’s weakness with women, whereas Sophie Scamps was both a strong candidate and a local doctor against a sitting Liberal MP seen as a mouthpiece for the Morrison government.

@ Nicholas, as someone who has lived in both cities from a demographic perspective do you think Upper Northern Beaches and Mornington Peninsula are comparable or not.
@Pencil, Hume goes into Regional NSW such as Goulburn and sometimes even Yass. Central Coast is outside Sydney Metro and has a clear natural barrier boundary it also has a major rail/road interstate corridor running through the middle of it. While Mount Eliza (not in Flinders, but on Peninsula) is adjacent to Frankston etc

Nimalan, when I compare Flinders with Hume, I am thinking of the winery and horse studs you would see in parts of Hume, however, maybe the Hawkesbury part of Sydney could be a better comparison.

@ Pencil good point about winery and house studs the inland areas such as Red Hill fits that description so Southern Highlands, Hawkesbury fits that description. I often prefer to use Hawekesbury for the northern part of the Casey electorate around Coldstream etc where there are also wineries etc as I compare the Dandenongs to the Blue Mountains and then Macquarie and Casey can be compared

@Nimalan I largely agree with you on similarities between the Mornington Peninsula and the Upper Northern Beaches, with some additional caveats:

• Both the Mornington Peninsula and the Upper Northern Beaches feature acreages, but it is far more pronounced in the former than the latter. Mount Eliza, Portsea, pockets of other coastal areas, and areas further inland are covered in acreages. On the Upper Northern Beaches, this demographic exists, but it is much smaller, in the small suburbs of Bayview, Church Point, Ingleside, Terrey Hills, and Duffys Forest.
• The median age at the tip of the Mornington Peninsula is extremely high, much higher than the northernmost tip of the Northern Beaches.
• As I pointed out, Flinders and Mackellar seem to have distinct political complexions. There wasn’t much of a Teal vote in Flinders, nor even a general swing away from the Liberals.

I think the Mornington Peninsula is more like Cronulla and Sutherland than the Northern Beaches.

Kate Lardner, the teal candidate, is placed second on both Labor’s and the Green’s HTV cards.

Chris Crewther, the Liberal candidate, was a one-term federal member for Dunkley.

This will be an interesting race.

Re: the questions of why Flinders didn’t get much of a teal vote, it’s worth noting that the Climate 200 backed candidate was forced to suspend her campaign over not being eligible to sit in parliament. There wasn’t much suspense from that point.

Ian, in that case. Would you compare the seat of Nepean to the NSW seat of Miranda? Could a Barry Collier hold on or win seats like Nepean and/or Mornington?

My take this seat. The margin is
About 5% I expect the libs to retain most seats with this margin. For Labor I expect them to hold all seats with a 3% margin or better. The fight given the climate is similar to. 2018
Will be over the seats with margins of up to 2 % either way
Eg Polwarth..these seats will come down to local contests and the quality of the candidates. The demographics in country seats seems to be all
Labors way.. so they may have a chance in Naccaran despite its almost 10% margin due to the loss of the sitting mps personal vote

I guess the rough distribution of seats lib nat and independents about 15 seats
It is possible that the nats hold
More seats than the libs. Something like 6/5.. I expect Labor to hold the balance of the 88 seats Something like 70 yo 73 seats

We will see on.election night how accurate my estimate is

I don’t know Sydney well enough to compare, but I do live in the general Mornington Peninsula area (almost – I’m up near Frankston).

Mornington (and to a lesser extent Mt Eliza and Mt Martha) have a lot of the older Liberal-voting retiree vote, who will like someone like Crewther. A bit different to the inner-suburban Teal seats, which have a lot more younger people living and working there.

Further down, you have places like Portsea and Sorrento, which have a lot of the holiday homes of Melbourne’s wealthiest people. Enormous amounts of money hides out the summer in Portsea. In the hinterland, you have a mix of very wealthy people who have a 20 acre block to put their horses on, hippy tree changers, farmers (but a bit more boutique – often vineyards, berries, cheesemakers etc).

That doesn’t really make me think of Cronulla too much, but then, I haven’t ever been to Cronulla so not really sure.

Although thinking about it more – you do also have some very wealthy areas around the top of Oliver’s Hill, which is the 69% Lib vote area at the northernmost section of Mt Eliza on the map.

If you look at the TPP vote for this seat at Labor high tides of 2002 & 2018 the LNP has improved with a suggestion that the seat has shifted in LNPs favour, however in this climate & with LNP woeful campaign which seems to be worse than 2018 this seat could fall.

@Mick

VIC Labor will hold 70 seats?

Sorry, but that’s laughable

@Bob

Nah, not Mornington. Crewther should have a fairly comfortable win here. Very vanilla Liberal candidate.

I don’t usually comment things like this, but Mick, with respect, that is not a conclusion based in reality.

Mick never lets his ALP antecedents get in the way of a bullish prediction. He’s been predicting ALP wins in Kiama/south coast for a generation, even while the margin gets bigger.
He normally couples humble pie with a large dollop of custard.

Whoops, spoke too soon – Crewther may be the next train wreck of the week. Let’s see if Guy is trying to explain away Crewther’s ties to Heath and the rest of the Christian far-right: https://twitter.com/ConalFeehely/status/1594211449324249089?cxt=HHwWgoCp3bu3458sAAAA

At this rate they might as well disendorse every single Lib candidate

Moderate.. appreciate your comments… my ” bullish??” Predictions are much more on track for my vic Predictions.. just look at seat by seat and you will see.. the liberal safe seats are only 5% to 10%.. about 6 I predict they will retain most of these their seats in the range of 0.5% to 2% are very much in play. Just because I get a result which seems high for Labor does not mean it wrong. Re Kiama sitting mp is facing police charges and has been suspended from the nsw parliament by his own side..he has damaged his own brand.. I think the chances of a lib win by any candidate are remote. Re south cost think Labor held the seat in the early 2000s when defeated by Ms Hancock who is now retiring. On Federal figures both seats are alp held.. I just point out that my “wishful ” thinking now coincides with reality and a generation is about 20 years.. cheers
Mate
Ps the election results will obviously show how accurate are my predictions

What’s interesting with both Crewther and Renee Heath is that they were installed over someone who ALREADY was in the seat.

So the Libs have actively backstabbed two sitting members, in favour of homophobic (among other things) members of the Religious Right. This is no coincidence.

The Liberal party of the past is long gone – we’re seeing the Trumpist RWNJ takeover of the Republicans replaying here in miniature.

Mick, you’re predicting the biggest landslide in Victorian history.

If it didn’t happen in 2018, it certainly isn’t happening now.

But 2018. Is a similar environment.to.now.. except Labor is slightly stronger and the demographics in country areas are better for them
.pick a liberal held seat on less than 5% MARGIN and I will give my take on who wins and why

You add these results together and see.. oh I forgot the greens think they hold 3… still gives similar total figures.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/mornington2022#comment-778682
@Daniel T, yeah I reckon a Barry Collier could win Nepean or Mornington. I think Miranda in NSW is a good choice for comparison purposes although one-for-one similarities can be difficult to determine =P.

This is different to the other
Mornington peninsula seats
In that it has a higher liberal margin on this basis I would presume liberal retain liberal
Margin 5%

This seat has up to 4k pre-polls left and up to 4.1k postal votes although not all of these will arrive – all of this should favour the Liberals. There will be less absents and they likely won’t favour Independents too heavily so the Liberals should win here.

This seat surprised me. I didn’t think this would be the teal movement’s best result.

Postals are strongly favouring LIB and so are prepolls but to a much lesser extent. There may be a few more postals coming as well as all divisional and absent votes.

New results today:
Absents broke 10-9 in favour of the Liberals (52.6%).
Absent prepolls broke 747-588 in favour of the Liberals (56.0%)
No new postals today, altogether this is good news for the Liberals, with their lead going from 177 votes to 337 votes.

Chris Crewther could be a future minister in a Pesutto government. but it’s unlikely he will ever be leader himself, Is Chris Crewther even a moderate?

Dr Lardner won the ordinary vote and most polling day booths but postals and prepolls are usually not teal-friendly and are more Liberal-friendly.

I wouldn’t class her electoral performance as a failure if she misses out. The federal election results set the bar high as six teals won seats. Normally, it’s rare for a metropolitan independent candidate to come a close second or even win.

@Daniel Crewther was a Turnbull supporter throughout the leadership challenge and rejected Peter Dutton so I don’t think he’s too right wing.

@Daniel T Chris Crewther has quite a bit of ties to the religious right and he won preselection after the local branches had substantial increase in membership of various ultraconservative church groups so I think he’s more linked to the hard right faction than the moderates.

Thats what i felt Chris Crewther was seen as a moderate and was close to Turnbull the whole way.

This should have been a liberal hold with a 5 % odd margin. We still don’t know the result. Based on any projection. Sort of explains this election. In total

Small batch of probably absent prepolls:
2CP:
LIB 145 52.92%
IND 129 47.08%

AJP 7 2.55%
ALP 76 27.74%
FFP 4 1.46%
FRP 5 1.82%
IND 39 14.23%
GRN 41 14.96%
LIB 101 36.86%
IND 1 0.36%
As with Hawthorn, the Liberal Primary vote is well down compared to the overall vote with the Labor and Green Vote well up. However the Independent is doing poorly, with the Liberals winning 25.4% of preferences from all other parties compared with 21.7% for all votes before this batch. It’s obvious that the Liberals do less well on Primary Votes with Absents and Absent prepolls, while Labor and the Greens do better. Yet, this doesn’t translate to a good 2CP split to the Independent, with the Liberals winning nearly 53% of this batch’s 2CP vote. This is likely due to voters preferencing the major parties higher or the Independent having a lack of profile in the booths where these votes were cast.

Another new batch of 1324 votes, breaking to the Liberals 51.1-48.9, netting the Liberals 30 votes. The teal would need to win around 53.2% of the remaining vote to win which does not seem likely.

Is there anything in the law that would stop the government from hypothetically passing a “sore loser law” where unsuccessful pre-selecrion candidates aren’t allowed to run in the general election in the seat they contested the primary/preselection for? This law exists in many U.S states.

Kate should have sat it out after she lost Liberal pre-selection. Same with other candidates. Didn’t Dai Le once lose pre-selection but nevertheless contested as an independent in 2015 or 2019?