Melton – Victoria 2022

@Bob if the Libs or any independent couldn’t win a single seat in 2022 in the north and west, I doubt they will in 2026. Most of the swing is because of the anti-Dan and anti-vax vote, none of which will apply in 2026 given Andrews is likely to be gone as premier then and the pandemic becomes a distant memory. Labor could easily sandbag and reverse those margins next election. The Libs barely got any primary vote increase, it’s just that they received the bulk of the anti-Dan preferences.

Melton is very working-class from my understanding. Why is it that in 2018 and 2022 there has been swings against Labor there, enough for it to become a marginal seat? Are local issues like crime the main factor in this or is it a general opposition to Victorian Labor? Melton seems to be one of the only parts of Victoria where Labor do worse on the state level. On the federal level Melton is competitive too (at least in 2022 it was) but not as much as on the state level.

In 2018 there was a relatively big swing to the Liberals on TPP yet Labor won in a landslide statewide. It’s almost like Fowler in 2013 which for some reason swung massively against Coalition when the rest of Australia (and especially NSW) did the opposite.

Another example like that interestingly is how the Liberals got such big swings to them in Cabramatta and Liverpool in 2023 when Western Sydney swung against the Coalition which delivered Labor minority government (interestingly the seats north, west and southwest of Maitland mostly swung to the Coalition).

@ Nether Portal
The Established parts of Melton are working class but these areas are largely Anglo and Maltese. Surrounding Melton is a lot of Green Wedge Rural areas and growth areas with new housing estates which are are very South Asian. Crime is not an issue in Melton. However, i always say Melton is a victim of its own success it has rapid population growth so services are not keeping up. Key Issues here are the need for a new Hospital, rail electrification, a TAFE, new schools upgrade to Western Highway local roads etc

There is a campaign called Make Melton Marginal-i recommend you visit this
https://www.facebook.com/MMeltonM/

@Nimalan interesting. I always thought Melton had lots of eshays and even some gang activity.

@ Nether Portal
While i agree the older parts are working class, a lot of truck drivers live there because it has poor public transport it has been isolated from the rest of Melbourne so did not really attract refugees etc. St Albans/Sunshine have a lot of crime though. Other areas with a lot of Crime is Broadmeadows, Meadow Heights etc and the area around Dandenong all of which have gangs and violence.

In 2017, the former Labor member of Melton was found to have been rorting taxpayer dollars. That in combination with Labor replacement candidate issues, and the presence of several independents (6 in fact), who collectively obtained about 35% of primary votes – imagine if they had all directed towards a single one, and then grabbed Liberal preferences on top of that – they would have won – Labor’s primary was under 35%, combined independents + Liberals would have been 54%. Obviously that did not happen – preferences sprayed everywhere, but you can see the primary votes of both majors suffered significantly (-15.5% from ALP and -12.2% from Libs).

Come 2022, and while a lot less independents (although the most prominent Melton independent from 2018, Ian Birchall did run again), a lot more minor parties, and once again, preference spraying, so another Labor retain – but I think it does go to show there is quite a lot of dissatisfaction in Melton with Labor, just it has not very much rewarded the Liberals (tbf, in 2022 that was also the case in a lot more Western suburb seats, where only preferences helped swing seats towards the Liberals, while Liberal primary vote was largely static). I think the Liberals could win the seat…one day. But I have my doubts 2026 will be when it happens.

@Nimalan @WL do you think the Liberals can win Hawke? That’s the federal seat that includes Melton and Bacchus Marsh.

The suburb Melton which is the “Old Melton” is fact amongst the lowest percentage of University Qualifications individuals in Greater Melbourne at just under 10%

Atlas id does mark the divide there
https://atlas.id.com.au/melton

@Nether Portal maybe in future but unlikely at the next election.

@ Nether Portal
Whilst i agree with Scart that it is unlikely that the Libs will win Hawke in 2025 i cannot rule it out and i would still watch the seat with interest as it is a mortgage belt seats where interest rates and CIL will be important. Unlike a seat like Calwell, Scullin and the western part of Bruce where i expect a reversal of the lockdown swing to some extent. I also expect the Labor party to under perform in Gorton to an extent as there is dissatisfaction with Labor and much of the same service delivery issues is applicable to the western part of Gorton as well. I actually do hope the Libs make an effort here it will benefit Australia as a while the Western Highway which runs through this seat is the main connector between Adelaide and Melbourne and needs to be upgraded to an Urban Freeway standards the rail corridor needs to be upgraded as well. A contest will be great. Regarding more longer term prospects for the Libs in Hawke i cannot say with rapid population growth the boundaries will change radically so hard for me to forecast.

@Scart yeah that’s what I thought. It’s unlikely now but maybe in the future.

@Nimalan so could Gorton become marginal?

@ Nether Portal
i think Gorton could become weaker for Labor but maybe not enough for Libs to win it though. Gorton has more favourable demographics to Calwell. It already has a reliable Liberal suburb in Keilor, more marginal suburb of Taylors Hill and suburbs like Taylors Hill and Caroline Springs while blue collar are actually blue collar middle class with above average income and nice houses etc. Ethnically it has a lot of ethnic Europeans especially Maltese, Macedonians, Italians, Poles, Croats etc and Vietnamese which are easier for the Libs to win than Muslims. Gorton is only 7% Muslim compared to 23% in Calwell. Gorton may have a margin of 7-8% in 2025. I would say Gorton is a mix of Werriwa, Fowler and McMahon.

So it’s like Greenvale?

Hypothetically, if a future redistribution produced a seat spanning Keilor, Essendon, and Greenvale, what would the Liberals’ chances be like in that seat?

Greenvale (electorates) comes in two halves.
The Eastern Half (meadow Heights and Roxburgh Park) is very poor and is around 40% Muslim. The Western Half (Greenvale-suburb) and Attwood is quite affluent McMansions it is less Muslim, More Italian and Catholic a bit like Abbotsbury in Sydney. The issue is that even in 2022 the Greenvale booths were still Labor and did not really swing much in fact the Liberal primary vote went down in Greenvale suburb. It was the poor Eastern Half of Greenvale electorate that had a violent swing against Labor. I expect the eastern half to swing to Socialists/Pro-Palestine candidates next time and this conflict has meant that people probably have forgotten about lockdowns.

@ Nicholas
in a Good year that seat would be winnable but if it just moves 1km to include Meadow Heights that it is a lost cause for the Libs. Meadow heights can often vote 87% TPP for Labor. Boundaries would need to be perfect for the Libs to win

In RedBridge’s latest poll they released polling in the three parts of Victoria, east Melb, north/west Melb, outside Melbourne.

East Melb: 47% ALP/ 53% LIB
West/north Melb: 54% ALP/ 46% LIB
Outside Melb: 48% ALP/ 52% LIB

The Libs weren’t even able to get over 46% in their best seats north of the Yarra, Yan Yean (45.7%) and Melton (45.4%). Suggesting a very big swing in this region that 46% is now the average across the whole region. The theory some had that 2022 fed-vic and state was just a covid/Dan Andrews thing seems unlikely.

The sub-group polling could be wrong for all we know, but only 54% for ALP here would be a devastating result and would likely see the Libs win a few seats here and there. I struggle to see the Libs winning an election in Vic without winning at least 5 or so seats here. Interesting that even with John Pesutto, who was probably chosen to appeal to the eastern Melb seats, this could still happen!

I’ll predict that this seat and Yan Yean will fall, and Niddrie and Greenvale are likely.

I reckon the Coalition will start to get ahead in the polls now in Victoria and I think the Liberals will win this, Niddrie and Yan Yean will fall plus maybe Essendon, Greenvale and Sunbury.

@NP Essendon seems unlikely unless with green preferences but agree with the others… I see point Cook and werribee becoming marginal too

@Up the Dragons the Greens vote could decrease or remain static and Labor could drop a lot.

Essendon was traditionally a Liberal area but Labor has gained ground there since the late 90s (after Jeff Kennett).

The swing to the Liberals in Essendon at the 2010 state election was +10.0% on TPP. The Liberals had the highest first preference vote at 36.8% but Labor managed to win on Greens preferences with 51.7% of the TPP vote.

I reckon if Essendon will be marginal after 2026.

I just added up the results of all 26 NW Melbourne seats from the last election (which doesn’t include this seat of Yan Yean) and found that Labors avg 2PP was 65.58%, meaning this poll would translate to an 11.58% TPP swing against them.

This would see them lose Sunbury, Niddrie, Greenvale, Point Cook, Sydenham, Eltham, St Albans, Werribee, and would see them go very close in Mill Park, Tarneit, Essendon and Bundoora.

Or* Yan Yean

Why wouldn’t you include Melton and Yan Yean? They both fall entirely within the Greater Capital City Area and were both part of Melbourne during the lockdowns. If you don’t include them, then that would make Labor’s result in the west in 2022 look better than it was.

I wouldn’t include Macedon and Eureka as they contains large parts that are not part of Melbourne.

@Dark Including Melton and Yan Yean only drops it to 64.78%, meaning that Labor would lose those two seats, along with every seat listed there bar Werribee.

I also did it for the eastern suburbs, and found that Labor would lose Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Hastings, Bass, Pakenham, Ashwood, Box Hill, and would likely also lose Ringwood given Will Fowles’s allegations. Other seats like Frankston, Bentleigh, Mordialloc and the Narre Warrens would go very close.

In the rural areas, I wouldn’t rule them out in Ripon or Eureka.

I doubt the Libs would gain Mill park or St Albans even with a very large statewide swing (10-15%) towards them but Bundoora is entirely possible – especially considering NorthEast Link construction in the area

@Up the dragons The margins in both of those seats are under 12% (St Albans under 10%), and both are trending towards the Liberals relative to the rest of the state. They’re absolutely in play.

OK I’ve done a seperate one now.

Results of the 2022 VIC election by region:

N-W Melbourne: Labor 64.78-Liberals 35.22 (28 seats)

S-E Melbourne: Labor 53.73-Liberals 46.27 (32 seats)

Rest of VIC: Liberals 53.56-Labor 46.44 (28 seats)

New one (finalised):

N-W Melbourne: Labor 64.78% (28 seats)

S-E Melbourne: Labor 53.17% (33 seats)

Rest of VIC: Liberals 53.14% (27 seats)

NW Melb: 10.78% to Libs
SE Melb: 7.17% to Libs
Regionals: 1.14% to Labor

That would actually be a swing to Labor outside of Melbourne. I think they’ve overestimated Labor there and probably underestimated Labor in Melbourne. Since Labor doesn’t have that much left to gain outside Melbourne, and there are a lot of swing seats in Melbourne, this probably overly estimates the Libs seat potential.

But the big interesting thing is the biggest swing is in N/W Melbourne, again. The Labor vote seems to be hardly close to rock bottom. I wonder how the Vic Libs Right would react if Pesutto ends up being the person to finally make inroads with that area.

Pesutto has spent a lot more time in the west and particularly Greenvale compared to the traditional sandbelt seats and former eastern suburb heartland like Box Hill and Ashwood.

@Drake Jacinta Allan is from the regions so won’t be surprised if there’s a bit of regional parochialism going on. If further polls show this huge swing in the west, Ben Carroll who’s actually from the western suburbs could use it to try challenge for the leadership. There are already articles calling for Jacinta Allan to resign over CFMEU.

@Dan M she’s from Bendigo. That’s not a country town. It’s a city with over 100,000 people. In fact Ballarat is nearly as big as Darwin!

Rural areas won’t support a progressive leader like Jacinta Allan. They didn’t support Dan Andrews either.

I would almost certainly rule out Labor winning Ripon barring an absolute miracle.

I would take Redbridges breakdowns with a grain of salt – recall that in their previous poll – rural Victoria was 52-48 to the ALP – which is just not believable. They changed their regional breakdown this time. The headline figure and age demographics would be more reliable.

The reasonably good performance for the Libs on 2pp figures hides the fact that it is all based on a very low primary vote. Local factors and lots of independents have put Labor in danger. It just seems that the demographics are just not there for this to turn into a Liberal seat. They would be better putting their efforts into Yan Yean, Sunbury, Niddrie and Point Cook.

@redistributed You really think there won’t be independents next time?

I’m assuming the reason you would omit Melton and Yan Yean from an analysis is that both had anomalous swings (in opposite directions) in 2022 as rebound from candidate issues in 2018 (in Melton Labor disendorsed two candidates before finally landing on a third, in Yan Yean the Liberal candidate was disendorsed after nominations closed). 2022 results there should be reasonably representative though.

Scart – highly likely there will be independents but how many is anybody’s guess. Removal of GVT in the Upper House may reduce the number of fringe parties that make up the end of the ballot papers in some seats.
A question for Ben Raue – will removing GVT in the LC likely reduce the number of micro parties?

i think this will be a liberal gain in 2026

This is a potential path to majority government for the Coalition in 2026: https://jmp.sh/aGvNHCot

I’ve assumed that the swing against Labor isn’t as big as it is in the rest of the state in the northwestern suburbs of Melbourne since lockdowns influenced the huge swings at the 2022 federal election and the 2022 state election (the further you get from the city, the harder lockdowns hit) and I’ve also assumed that Jacinta Allan appeals in the cities of Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo given she’s from Bendigo.

Only three regional seats in western Victoria are gained by the Liberals in this scenario, since there’s barely anything to gain in regional Victoria. The election is really decided in Melbourne’s Eastern and Northern Suburbs, such as in growth areas such as Pakenham and Yan Yean and bellwethers like Bentleigh and Ringwood. In this scenario the most high-profile loss is Deputy Premier Ben Carroll who loses Niddrie to the Liberals.

Link to map (fixed): https://jmp.sh/Sz0cR2cV

Key to map:

* Red: Labor seats
* Blue: Liberal seats
** Royal blue: Liberal hold
** Light blue: Liberal gain
* Dark green: Nationals seats
* Lime green: Greens seats
** Lime green: Greens hold
** Light green: Greens gain

NP – Interesting. I would disagree on a few:

Macedon – I could actually see this ending up as a Greens vs Lib contest at some stage. If for some reason Macedon slid up the Calder and into Castlemaine, it could be a definite Greens pick up.
Essendon – There is too much Ascot Vale in the seat. The best Liberal areas in Essendon are actually in Niddrie.
Oakleigh – 1992 style landslide opportunity only.
Melton – I just don’t feel that there is much more that the Libs can do there.

@Redistributed I think Melbourne should be an easy gain. It’s already marginal and it has been since 2018.

I think Macedon would need to get a bit smaller to be a Greens seat. It would have to be centred around Castlemaine to become a Greens seat so it would have to lose a lot of rural areas. In 2022 the Greens only got 12.5% of the vote in Macedon.

Oakleigh and Essendon would be hard to gain for the libs, similar to Ivanhoe all have lib-voting areas, a sizeable greens vote, areas of disavantage as well as high income areas, and were held by the Libs during the Kennett years. Libs will have to work for green preferences and see a big swing statewide to win these…

@Up the Dragons what if the Labor vote drops drastically?

@Redistributed I do concede that gaining Essendon and Oakleigh is hard but not impossible despite them having reasonable Greens votes. I am aware that half of Essendon is in Essendon and the other half is in Niddrie and Niddrie should be a Liberal gain.