Melton – Victoria 2022

Agree Trent, it is only NSW Liberals (maybe Tasmania/SA branch as well) who are really focussed on the ‘future proofing’ aspects of public transport in the state capital – other states are more focused on road projects without considering PT benefits. I think the Queensland LNP may be shifting more to a PT focus with new leader David Crisafulli.

@ Yoh An,
excellent comparison with Cross River Rail and Metro Tunnel. Both increase capacity in the core network to allow for expansion later on Such as Sunshine coast rail link or Melton electrification. In both cases these projects were unnecessarily delayed by Tony Abbott due to his ideological opposition to PT and forced newly elected state labor governments in 2014 and 2015 to fund it entirely themselves. See link below where Albo explains how the PT projects were cut.

I cannot begin to address everything wrong with Trent’s idolisation of Daniel Andrews and the incorrect justifications behind it. Daniel Andrews has been incredibly damaging for this state in many ways. And it’s a lie to suggest that he did not give himself more legislative and political power throughout covid.

Trent’s assessment is far from an “idolisation” of Andrews. If anything, it reads to me as saying that Andrews is incompetent rather than populist.

Yes apologies I have re-read the comment and I agree on the incompetence. Apologies Trent.

Was talking to one of my friends today who is a huge Dan Fan and was a bit wound up from that!

Somewhere in the middle I’d say.

I generally don’t even vote Labor and am not voting Labor in November either, so to say I am “idolising” him is certainly not true.

For the most part I think Andrews’ decisions have been made for the right reasons, not the wrong ones. Were they all perfect? Nope of course not. Part of that is because Victoria were the first state to deal with a major outbreak (and pre-vaccine) so there was no playbook but I certainly don’t think any decision he took was to be populist or gain power.

Even in regards to the pandemic laws that were passed in December of 2021 and did transfer more power from the CHO to the Premier, he has not implemented a single restriction in that time. He has only removed each restriction one by one.

All that said, I think Labor’s infrastructure agenda is excellent and what is needed to transform the city & state for the future; and I think Labor’s social reforms have also been excellent, but while they happened under a Labor government I actually don’t credit Labor for them.

I think Fiona Patten deserves the credit, and to a lesser extent the Greens, for actually introducing and/or pushing Labor to pass legislation they otherwise may have seen as too politically risky to introduce themselves, but Reason/Greens did a great job of putting them in a position where they had to support or oppose it.

The bottom line though is that I would never come within a whisker of voting for the Victorian Liberals who have consistently opposed the much needed infrastructure reforms, opposed every much needed social reform, and were wildly inconsistent in how they responded to the government’s pandemic response with the sole goal of undermining it, even if one statement directly contradicted the last.

That doesn’t equate to Dan Andrews worship though. I think some decisions were poor, the public housing lockdown was handled terribly (even if necessary), revitalising public housing through privatisating part of it was wrong, the EV tax is stupid, and Reason/Greens deserve at least as much credit as Labor for many of the positive reforms.

But he has not “damaged” the state like some of the hyperbolic commentary suggests. Much of our legislation is now far better in 2022 than it was in 2014; our economy is #1 in the country (the debt arguments are simplistic because there is good & bad debt); and our public transport network is not only finally catching up after decades of neglect but is very cleverly being designed to shape the city for 2050, not the next election.

Ah see, much of that I disagree with, especially on the economy front.

Measuring the increase in economic activity after 6 lockdowns is not equal to having the best economic performance in the country. Commsec even mentions this in the conclusion of that report, but VIC Labor took it and ran with it for PR. Additionally, the debt levels are alarming, to say the least, regardless of what you personally would constitute as “good” or “bad” debt.

Victoria having more debt than NSW, QLD, and SA combined is not good. The fiscal management has been virtually non existent, and the privatisation of the Port of Melbourne and Vicroads is an egregious example of this. Not even Kennett would’ve done so (lol).

I think debt is a far less important issue to voters in the post-Covid age, as every single national government in the world has borrowed furiously to keep their economies afloat. The key is whether voters can see the benefits of that borrowing in their own lives or not. This is why borrowing for useful infrastructure isn’t a major issue, however, it comes with the caveat highlighted in recent comments – the payoff is usually years in the future. Andrews has the advantage of pointing to the dozens of level crossing removals he has accomplished, but he has clearly over-promised and under-delivered on outer suburb electrifications. It’s a pity the Liberals preferred to focus on electrifying part of the Stony Point line instead of Melton, because they could have mounted a real challenge for the seat on that front.

Labor will lose this electorate, just a matter of if they lose it to the Libs or the Independent.

There is nowhere where major party disillusionment is stronger than Melton…

I hope the independent wins, Graham Watt is a parachuted hack who doesn’t deserve a spot in parliament. He tried to get preselected in my seat (Ashwood) after losing Burwood last election, but lost to another parachuted hack (Asher Judah lol) and decided to run here.

That aside, the 2018 results really are wild in this seat. Combined major party vote of ~53%, cumulative swing of ~28% against the majors, and the total independent vote being higher than Labor’s and almost double that of the Liberals makes it a very spicy seat. Independents/minor parties have won in seats with far less favourable conditions than the ones seen in the 2018 results.

In The Age today, it was reported that the Labor MP Steve McGhie lives in Buninyong – just outside Ballarat for the non Victorians. The story concerned a new overhead HV power line going through from Western Victoria to Melbourne. It seems that it could be a major issue not only in Melton but in Ripon and Eureka as well.

I don’t see Labor holding here, it seems everyones preferences are going last to Labor. The real question is will the Independent or LNP win here? I personally reckon the independent will get across the line.

Labor will be relying on preferences from the Greens and AJP.

The ALP + Green + AJP vote in Melton 2018 was 42.46%. Those preferences won’t be enough to get them over the line, nowhere near.

Yeah I don’t see Labor retaining this seat.

Listening to the Trioli morning show, there’s far too many factors working against Labor (and for good reason)

High chance of IND gain (lesser, but statistically significant chance of LIB gain based on preferences)

Would Birchall have won this in 2018 were it not for the five other independent candidates and the impact of OPV?

@Nicholas

I believe a recent calculation was done assuming same vote share on current boundaries, Birchall would win in that scenario.

Lib candidate suggested that they’ll be preferencing him above Labor, and the crowd were more receptive towards liberal vs Labor. So I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the scenario that Dr Birchall doesn’t reach second place, that his voters preference lib over ALP.

If Dr Birchall reaches second, it’s likely going to be an IND gain.

Just wondering if there will be more independents other than Ian Birchall. I don’t know why SFF is running a candidate only a small part of the electorate is rural these days.

Nimalan
SFF might well have a presence on the Legislative Council ballot, so I guess they wouldn’t say no to a feeder candidate to attract voters to “the top of the ballot” to use an Americanism (analogy). To trace the reasoning, refer to Antony Green’s articles on Group Ticket Voting.

@ Phil Good point

The media seems to be putting a lot of focus on here with Labor throwing resources here, does anyone have any internal polling on this electorate?

Don’t have internals but I think these seat falls.

On candidate forums that The ABC held with Virginia Trioli and one that The Age held tonight, Steve McGhie was laughed at multiple times.

Never a good sign for an incumbent facing a community panel

@Mark, same here.

I watched the Candidate Fourm on the Age Facebook page and it’s quite obvious that the area feel very neglected. I too think this will fall, not to the Liberals though but the Independent Candidate Dr Ian Birchall

Agreed Patreon

Although there is an *outside* chance that it goes Lib if Dr Birchall only makes it to 3rd. Nothing has been confirmed but there were mutterings of Libs and Dr Birchall doing a preference deal on their HTV cards, and The Dr almost spat it out tonight if you didn’t miss it. It was very quick and he stopped himself.

Other than that, I think this goes IND. Steve McGhie is far too tainted, and no Labor candidate could shake the amount of inaction that has occurred in Melton.

Yes, i did see that. He said ” I would be leaning more towards the” and stopped right there. The reason I think if Melton falls it would to Ian Birchall is because he has built quite a bit of profile in the Electorate specially in the last few years around the Melton hospital group. And I think he may very well take quite a bit of vote off the Liberals as well.

I’d derive just as much pleasure seeing Birchall and other independents take seats off Labor as I did witnessing the Tealslide. I’d vote for him just as enthusiastically as I would vote for a Teal.

My view is the Teals were portrayed by coping Liberal supporters as affiliated with Labor and the Greens, and I’m sure coping Labor supporters will say Birchall is just a Liberal.

Am I in a small minority or are there other centrist voters who feel this way, viewing both these groups of independents favourably and believing that they are actually more similar to each other than they are to a major party?

If Birchall fails to make it to 2PP then the seat possibly doesn’t fall – his preferences are more likely to scatter while Liberal preferences will probably flow quite strongly to him, same with Garra in Point Cook and Fenton in Bellarine etc

Both those coping Liberal and Labor supporters would be correct, Nicholas.

That being said I think this seat falls to the Liberal rather than the independent.

Why would a parachuted defeated candidate from 2018, have any chance here? Swing to Labor, Liberals shot themselves in the foot choosing this guy, and anyone who says the candidate doesn’t matter then I look forward to proving you wrong on election night.

All this talk about traditional Labor strongholds falling like Point Cook is absolutely laughable. Won’t happen anytime soon. We’ll have a different conversation if it was a Liberal landslide but until then, hell is more likely to freeze over than these seats falling.

Daniel, many of these safe Labor seats are like Fowler from the Federal election. Voters are weary of the lockdowns that have occurred during the covid era and are also frustrated with lack of infrastructure development.

Whilst the Liberals don’t have much chance with a weaker, non-local candidate – there is a strong local independent Dr Ian Burchill contesting and he could well be like Dai Le, able to soak up both the Liberal vote and also those dissatisfied with Labor as well.

I listened to Virginia Trioli program and someone pointed out and this is backed up by an article in the Age that John Cain promised Melton electrification in 1981 just before Labor took office in 1982. In fact, the 1969 Melbourne Transport Plan, the same one that called for Doncaster and Rowville rail called for the Melton line up to Rockbank to be electrified which has still not been done. This feeds a perception of neglect.

Melton is the most likely “Red Wall” or Labor heartland seat to go down to the wire. Point Cook is another possibility.

I see infrastructure, especially transport, failing to keep up with massive population growth in Melton. Cost of living, especially interest rate rises (not something that Dan Aandrews can control), and other bread and butter issues are at play. Most people here have mortgages.

This area could have a Dai Le-style revolt. Labor’s primary vote in 2018 wasn’t even that high (35%). Federal Labor’s primary vote and 2PP in 2019 in Fowler were much, much higher and yet they still lost to Dai Le in 2022.

On the flipside, at the federal election, Labor won every booth in Melton and surrounding areas (though following big swings) by at least 55% 2PP and won on postals/prepolls in Hawke.

Melton electrification will happen eventually.

There’s actually some weird sides to this. For years, outer suburban residents fought AGAINST electrification (especially to Sunbury and Craigieburn) as there was a perception that the existing VLine service was a quicker and more comfortable service than a Metro service would be. Which delayed both of those extensions for a long time.

Then also, Infrastructure Victoria have recommended for years to only electrify the Melton line, but only as far as Rockbank. Reason being that they don’t want to encourage suburban sprawl all the way through to Melton. As the infill development between Rockbank and Melton are already happening, I don’t know if that would make a different.

Furthermore, there’s a policy that any new extensions won’t have level crossings. This adds quite a bit of cost and time to any future Melton projects.

But at any rate… It will happen, but (for better or worse) probably not imminently.

“They don’t want to encourage suburban sprawl all the way through to Melton.”

I’m trying to think of a joke about encouraging the Sun to rise tomorrow, but it’s not coming to me.

I think the reason for suburban sprawl in most of the state capitals is because those raising a family generally prefer more open space with a backyard, and it is difficult to do that in a more cramped apartment type space.

However, we probably do need to think about better planning of medium and high-rise developments, as places in Asia and Europe do that well with apartments complexes located close to shops and transport, with decent urban parkland areas for residents to access.

@Yoh An

Yes, that’s still what people want – but what we see in new residential developments is tiny lot sizes with “detached” homes that may as well be townhouses or terraces as there is hardly any space separating them. Of course, developers have to do this otherwise no one would be able to afford them given the current housing market.

@ Expat, Good point to consider about level crossings and extensions. i agree if it is brand new track then you will be foolish to build new level crossings but if it is an existing track to be electrified then while i agree in principle and thats what i said to Mark earlier in the thread maybe it is better to remove level crossings first this has not always been followed for example with Sunbury electrification while for the South Morang extension no new level crossings were built.

Good Article to read about when Melbourne stopped building new level crossings.
https://wongm.com/2017/05/melbourne-last-new-level-crossing/

Why are the Greens recommending preferences to Labor above Birchall?

I suppose it shouldn’t matter too much unless it’s very close.

Don’t think it’s a shock the Greens would preference Labor over someone likely to side with the Libs.

@Telling

I agree, it isn’t a surprise, but my question is genuine, not rhetorical – There is a case to be made that the Greens would be more principled in directing preferences to Birchall over Labor given their common ground on matters such as integrity and service delivery.

Nicholas, makes a fair point especially since Birchall is very pro Melton electrification and the Greens are passionate about PT

Melton had the highest turnout for day 1 early voting, does this mean they are eager for change? Or maybe it’s just that it’s easy and convenient for anyone in Melton to get to the EVC in Melton in a centralised electorate like this. The lowest is Eildon which is a much less centralised electorate. Can’t see many people driving from Yarra Glen, Healesville etc to Launching Place just to cast an early vote.

That hypothesis would seem to be inconsistent with how bad commuting in this area is! Perhaps it is eagerness for change.

Birchall released his HTV card yesterday, and he’s made some interesting decisions. Personally, I’m quite impressed by it, and if it’s ideologically indicative, I’m even more excited to see Birchall elected than I was before.

It’s funny I mentioned how I thought the Greens should recommend preferences to Birchall over Labor – because now we see Birchall is recommending preferences to the Greens over both major parties!

He also has the Freedom Party below the major parties.

1. Birchall (Independent)
2. Shooters Fishers and Farmers
3. Bingham (Independent)
4. Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
5. New Democrats
6. Animal Justice
7. Greens
8. Democratic Labour
9. Perera (Independent)
10. Family First
11. Liberal
12. Labor
13. Freedom Party
14. Health Australia

It’s quite interesting to see AJP and Greens above Liberal, Family First and DLP; but then at the same time to also have DLP and Family First ahead of Labor.

It’s definitely prioritising a “Majors last” (only above anti-vaxxers) order above an idelological one.

Small note – while Greens preferenced Keneally over Dai Le in Fowler, Greens preferences only flowed 65/35 to her. This is in an election where it wasn’t unusual to see Green -> Labor preference flows in the high 80s and even low 90s in classic 2PP contests.

The Greens don’t have that much vote to throw around at any rate. All that to say if Birchall is looking strong, the Greens aren’t going to be the reason he loses.

Think it will be a Birchall gain. There’s a swing against Labor that won’t easily go to the Liberals. Birchall seems well placed to get preferences from across the board, even from Greens (in defiance of the HTV).

Can’t rule out a Liberal gain if Birchall doesn’t make top 2. This is not a happy hunting ground for Labor.

Disappointing results for melton

Antony Green’s analysis of preference flows in Melton:

https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-melton-analysis-of-preferences/

Birchall finished third with only 9% of first prefs. Bingham fourth with 5.8%.

I found it funnier that it should be that the DLP candidate’s name is “Alp”. ALP for the Labour DLP.

The was a massive kick up about the red wall falling & the vote here barely moved. I expect that in 2026 a lot of these anti-Dan parties will disappear with Labor’s vote recovering here & seats out this way.