LIB 6.0%
Incumbent MP
Michael O’Brien, since 2006.
Geography
Inner southeastern Melbourne. Malvern covers central and eastern parts of Stonnington local government area, specifically the suburbs of Armadale, Kooyong, Malvern, Malvern East and Toorak, and parts of the suburbs of Chadstone and Glen Iris.
Redistribution
Malvern slightly expanded to the west, taking in the remainder of Toorak from Prahran. This change slightly decreased the Liberal margin from 6.1% to 6.0%.
Malvern was first created for the 1933 election, and in that time it has always been won by the Liberal Party and its predecessor.
The seat was first won in 1945 by Trevor Oldham for the Liberal Party. Oldham had previously served as Member for Boroondara for the United Australia Party from a by-election in 1933 until the seat was abolished at the 1945 election. He served as Treasurer and Deputy Premier in a number of Liberal Party state governments, and was elected Liberal leader after the 1952 election. He died shortly after in an air crash on his way to the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II.
The seat was won at the 1953 by-election by John Bloomfield. He served as a minister in the Bolte Liberal government from 1955 to 1967, and retired at the 1970 election.
The seat was won in 1970 by Lindsay Thompson, who had served as a Member of the Legislative Council since 1955, first for Higinbotham province, and then Monash province. He had served as a minister in the Liberal government since 1958. Thompson became Premier of Victoria in June 1981, and served until his defeat at the March 1982 election.
Thompson resigned from Parliament following his election defeat, and the 1982 by-election was won by Geoff Leigh. He moved to the new seat of Mordialloc in 1992, and held it until his defeat in 2002.
Leigh had lost preselection for Malvern in 1992 to Robert Doyle. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the second term of the Kennett government and was promoted to the frontbench after Kennett’s defeat in 1999. In October 2002 he was elected Liberal leader, but lost badly at the state election the following month. He was replaced as Liberal leader in 2006 and retired from the seat of Malvern at the 2006 election. He went on to win election as Lord Mayor of Melbourne in 2008.
Malvern was won in 2006 by Michael O’Brien, a former advisor to Peter Costello. Michael O’Brien has been re-elected three times. O’Brien became Liberal leader after the 2018 election, and held the role until 2021.
- Amelia Natoli (Animal Justice)
- Darren Natale (Labor)
- Michael O’Brien (Liberal)
- Steve Stefanopoulos (Independent)
- Judy Schmidt (Family First)
- Mitchell Fuller (Greens)
Assessment
Malvern is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael O’Brien | Liberal | 19,003 | 51.2 | -11.4 | 51.6 |
| Oliver Squires | Labor | 11,141 | 30.0 | +8.7 | 29.4 |
| Polly Morgan | Greens | 4,659 | 12.6 | -3.4 | 12.9 |
| Michaela Moran | Sustainable Australia | 1,161 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.0 |
| Candace Feild | Animal Justice | 1,116 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 1,522 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael O’Brien | Liberal | 20,814 | 56.1 | -10.2 | 56.0 |
| Oliver Squires | Labor | 16,285 | 43.9 | +10.2 | 44.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority in the centre (52.2%) and the west (61.3%), with Labor polling 52.6% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote of 11.8% in the centre and east, and 13.6% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.8 | 52.2 | 7,807 | 19.5 |
| West | 13.6 | 61.3 | 6,384 | 16.0 |
| East | 11.8 | 47.4 | 4,604 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 12.6 | 59.8 | 14,262 | 35.7 |
| Other votes | 14.9 | 56.5 | 6,944 | 17.4 |
Election results in Malvern at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Heard from some people handing out HTVs at one of the PPVC that it felt like a swing to the liberals compared to the last election (they also handed out HTVs at the same PPVC 2018). Very anecdotal and unscientific.
It will be interesting to see if this is correct (and how is compares to voting on the day). And if this translates to other electorates.
Pollster
If this is in Higgins, then why is it safe Liberal when Higgins is now a marginal seat?
Higgins covers most of Malvern and Prahran. The most Labor-Greens parts of Higgins are in its western part. I’d also suggest the liberal vote was stronger in Malvern due to the absence of the Scomo factor at a state level.
The Division of Higgins extends beyond the confines of Malvern District, to include the suburbs of South Yarra, Windsor, Prahran, Murrumbeena, Carnegie, Ashburton, and parts of both Glen Iris (mid-eastern), and Ormond.
Just one “Higgins” booth of these suburbs registered a Liberal majority. Similarly, 22 booths in these suburbs registered a Labor majority at the state election. In Malvern, 3 did so, but 12 of the Malvern District booths registered a Liberal majority .
What would be the the Labor majority TPP if state results were applied to the Federal boundaries to see if State Labor overperformed or underperformed the May results