Kalkallo – Victoria 2022

I certainly don’t expect a seat on a >20% margin to be at risk, but what sort of swing could be expected here?

The ABC did a piece about transport woes in Kalkallo and elsewhere in the outer suburbs:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/victoria-roads-traffic-kalkallo-melbourne-outer-suburbs/101585202

@ Nicholas
I watched that as well while i dont think it will be lost i think the margin is inflated. Part of the seat is in McEwen and the other part is in Calwell. This is an area with growing pains similar to Melton, Yan Yean, Tarneit, Werribee, Point Cook etc. The growth areas of the North, West and South East are more affluent than suburbs in the same region closer to the city. It tends to be better educated and have a higher % of South Asian immigrants maybe simmilar to some of the issues around Marsden Park. There is a rail line near but it is not electrified beyond Cragieburn.

This seat won’t be lost but there could be a very big swing to the Libs that’s larger than the already massive pro-Lib swing in Calwell in the federal election.

This is the seat is evidence of Victoria being a victim of its own success. Since the 2000s Victoria has had phenomenal population growth while that is great for the economy and has led to new schools, hospitals, metro tunnel, level crossing removals the infrastructure cannot come soon enough in areas like this. Just a point about the swing in Calwell/McEwen the Liberal primary vote went down in both seats the swing in 2PP terms was due to the “Freedom Parties”.

I’ll be interested in the swing rather than who wins in seats like Kalkallo, Greenvale and other “red wall” seats.

I wrote in the Greenvale thread that Calwell, at the federal election, had the biggest anti-Labor and pro-LNP 2PP swing. This could carry over to the state election.

Seems like the only party who have bothered putting up any signs around here are the socialists – apart from theirs I think Ive seen one for the Labor candidate and that’s it

The safe bet would be that Labor are hoping to just try and ride out the big swing here, then rebuild as Covid fades into more distant memory over the next four years (and the cookers descend into infighting).

I’m intrigued if the VS somehow manage to pick up traction in working-class outer burbs though…. Return of the Old-school hard left.

Can’t see it happening myself, but maybe they’ll vacuum up some of the Anti-Dan votes rather than going to Greens or the far-right. They seem have optimism at least.

I think it’s not just anti-lockdown sentiment driving the backlash in some of these outer suburban Labor seats, it’s also service and infrastructure delivery.

These areas always seem to be playing catch up in terms of government spending, and I don’t think that will fade or go away by 2026.

Just noticed the Liberal candidate’s HTV card does not “put Labor last” – the Victorian Socialists are below Labor.

I agree with Mark Muclair about the Service Delivery point which what i made earlier in the thread about “Victoria becoming a victim of its own success”. I listened to Virginia Trioli program on Melton and there was actually little mentioned of Covid and more rail electrification, need for Hospital and Tafe. This is different from established working class areas such as St Albans, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and Dandenong which are not growth areas so those seats are best to measure what effect the lockdown backlash would be.

I must sound so ignorant and sheltered asking this… When we talk about rail lines that aren’t electrified, what are the trains running on? Diesel?

@Nicholas well yes non-electrified V-Line trains runs on diesel.

Wow. I had genuinely thought diesel passenger trains were a thing of the past in Australia.

On the topic of rail electrification they maybe pressure to electrify the Craigieburn line further to Wallan as this area is within the Urban Growth Boundary. My personal view is that all areas within Urban Growth Boundary should have electrified rail. In NSW Rail electrification extends to Blue Mountains. Kiama, Newcastle. However, they maybe pressure to extend it to Southern Highlands/Wollondilly due to population growth there. In some areas of advantage of electrified rail such as Melton is that it can take passengers of regional trains and allow regional passengers a faster and less crowded commute as it will not stop at suburban stations.

I wish the good people of Kalkallo deliver a strong message to Labor and especially Ros Spence. She has taken the residents for granted since her win back in whenever. Like many safe labor seats, they don’t worry as they know it will be theirs, regardless of who they put up. The liberals give up easily too, they often don’t bother to fight the good political stage here in Kalkallo. Maybe this time will be different. I am hoping for a massive swing against labor and make it count for the next one in 2026 as a non safe labor seat so we can get something out of these inept governments.

This seat did not swing much even though it more favorable demographically than Thomastown/Broadmeadows for Libs. This is a growth area and has issues with service delivery. Labor got 51% of the primary vote and the Liberal primary actually went down

@Juan Perez Prado
That’s not reflected in reality. You can see from the massive road upgrade the middle of Craigieburn, the new schools, the hospital under construction… If you think that’s being taken for granted, perhaps if it’s your expectations that are out place. The swing was way smaller here for a reason.

Why is this a safe Labor seat when next door is a key marginal Labor seat (Yan Yean) that should be a Liberal seat?

But who knows? Come 2026 if the Coalition win in a landslide this could swing violently.

@NP, Kalkallo covers mainly the largely CALD new housing estate and Working Class towns Wallan whereas in Yan Yean the housing estates (mainly Mernda and Dorren) tends to be mainly Anglo (similar to Pakenham) plus it includes wealthy big block areas like Plenty

@ Nether Portal
Yan Yean has some strong Liberal areas such as Plenty and Yarrambat which are very affluent and semi-rural. There is also more rural Green wedge areas in Yan Yean like Whittlesea township which is marginal. By contrast, Kalkallo is pretty much entirely growth areas and strongly Labor voting while they are some service delivery issues Labor has done better in Kalkallo virtually no swing last time. Yan Yean was notionally Liberal going into the 2014 election and both parties campaigned hard. In 2018, the Liberal candidate was dis endorsed so the margin was inflated.

@Marh @Nimalan oh so this seat has no or very few semi-rural areas?

I would compare Yan Yean to Hawkesbury in Sydney which is a safe Liberal seat. Some semi-rural suburbs are there like Windsor, Pitt Town, Kurrajong and Richmond but so are rural towns like Wisemans Ferry, Bilpin, etc. So McEwen is a bit like Macquarie which also includes the Blue Mountains for some stupid reason.

@ Nether Portal
In Kalkallo there are some semi-rural areas west of Mickleham Road that are protected from development as the Green Wedge such as Oaklands Junction, i pretty sure those areas vote Liberal maybe over >70% TPP there is no booth due to small population. The problem for the Liberals is that their vote gets swamped by strong Labor voting booths on the urbanized part. The other currently semi-rural areas along the Hume highway and the Rail line has been earmarked for housing,
In Yan Yean there is also plenty of growth as well. There is a suburb called Donnybrook which is rapidly growing and just next to this seat and is more demographically like Kalkallo than Yan Yean. The danger for the Liberals is that Donnybrook will out vote the lower density Liberal strongholds such as Plenty and Yan Yean. Yan Yean has shrank so much each redistribution due to population growth the Labor party is probably hoping that they can just win once more in current boundaries and the following election the Liberal areas can be moved to Eildon.

*Plenty and Yarrambat i mean