ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Nimalan,
The right of the party do not like him at all along with sky news crew so any excuse to remove him they’ll take and I feel this is it.
@ NP
The right flank will now be embolded. They will focus on religious based issues and will argue they can win Greenvale/St Albans by promoting abstinence only education in schools etc. They are happy to sacrifice Hawthorn if they can win St Albans/Greenvale
Considering the Liberals’ surge in polling, it’ll be interesting to see if the conservative half of the party room would still feel emboldened by this ruling to challenge Pesutto’s leadership again, or if they just bite their tongues and rally behind a leader who has them in the best position they’ve been in for a decade in this state.
There could always still be the view within the party that Labor’s polling slump is their own doing, and not the result of Pesutto’s leadership anyway, and that another leader could grow the Liberals’ position in the areas they are targeting even moreso than Pesutto.
@ Trent
Like @Spacefish said the right flank hates Pesutto i think they will rather loose the election to win a culture war.
On the flip side, if Labor are able to capitalise on any sort of friction and focus on their own agenda they’ll be able to recover some ground and render the Liberals unelectable. I’m yet to see anything that is positive policy-wise from the Liberals, and even if they did, they ought to be wise enough to learn from Federal Labor circa 2010-2013 that it doesn’t matter what your political agenda is, disunity is basically political suicide.
@Tommo9
i compare Pesutto to John Brogden, he was making gains against the NSW Labor government but the right flank sabotaged him and then Peter Debnam lost an election in 2007 where the Libs should have won. I think Jacinta Allan would be having a a Moet et Chandon tonight even if she does narrowly loose in 2026 it maybe like the CLP government between 2012-2016 in NT which fell apart quickly as they had weird combination of seats.
At the moment the only concern that Labor should have is the Greens in the inner city especially if the Liberal party keeps constantly infighting.
@ SpaceFish
That depends on Liberal preferences. If Libs preference Labor then i think Northcote is fine. State Labor is quite progressive and they have good local MPs in many seats.
I think the disunity this ruling will cause will definitely hurt the Liberals’ chances at actually winning the election in 2026.
I still think, based on current polling, there’s a very real possibility that Labor fall into minority government. However, any reversal in the polling over the next 2 years will probably firm up a 4th term of Labor majority. Two years is a long time, it’s hard to see Pesutto surviving that now, and Labor still have a lot of time to release a couple of more ‘election friendly’ budgets compared to the last two, the operating budget is forecast to be in surplus by 2025-26, and major projects like Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel will be open with the disruptions over and people seeing the benefits.
In other words, it’s hard to see Labor’s polling tanking further, especially in Victoria where you’d assume the low point it has currently hit is probably a “floor” comprised mostly of rusted-on support they’re unlikely to lose. Also, if Peter Dutton wins the federal election in 2025, Labor’s state polling will bounce back really fast – especially if the Victorian Liberals replace Pesutto.
A big question is: if Pesutto is no longer the Liberal leader in 2026, will he hold Hawthorn? I’d probably say no, because the promise of Pesutto winning the leadership and returning the party to the centre that drove his (narrow) 2022 win would be gone.
@ Trent
Have a look at your comment before the state election and also what @WL said. Both you were 100% correct and predicated what would happen
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/boxhill2022#comment-777291
It actually has played out almost exactly like that! The only difference really is that Pesutto has enjoyed a bump in the polls (something Michael O’Brien never did).
I think the best outcome for the Liberal Party/Coalition is to have Labor win another term (either majority or minority, preferably the latter as Labor would be forced to work with the Greens). That way, it will wear down Labor more to the point where they start to make more mistakes in office enabling the Coalition to win next time round (in 2030).
In fact, this current period of Labor government is very similar to the last time Labor held office (1999-2010). A popular leader (Steve Bracks/Dan Andrews) won narrowly before securing a landslide result in the next term. That leader stayed on for a bit before stepping down, then the successor (John Brumby/Jacinta Allen) took over and won a term in their own right.
In fact, this current period of Labor government is very similar to the last time Labor held office (1999-2010). A popular leader (Steve Bracks/Dan Andrews) won narrowly before securing a landslide result in the next term. That leader stayed on for a bit before stepping down, then the successor (John Brumby/Jacinta Allen) took over and won a term in their own right.
@ Yoh An
I do not think forcing Labor to work with Greens is particularly risky in Victoria compared to a Federal level or in other states. There is little fossil fuel industry. Victorian Labor does not need to win the only Coal seat (Morwell) and they have not won it since 2022 anyway despite strong majorities in 2006, 2018 and 2022. Labor has already committed to net zero by 2045 and 95% Renewable energy by 2035 and phasing out residential gas. The only thing Greens will probably get in a minority government is funding for some tram extensions, improved bus services, bike paths etc. There less of a white working class in Victoria compared to the rest of the nations.
@Yoh A John Brumby didn’t win in 2010 as he was short by two seats and resigned after Ted Ballieu won.
Eerily if nothing changes it looks like the same outcome for Allan, but today’s developments should give VIC Labor plenty of ammunition. Although personally, I would like to see them focus on delivery: transport infrastructure, health system, housing etc.
Tommo – yes, I was forgotten and Brumby narrowly lost when he led Labor into the 2010 election. It is probably like Queensland instead (popular leader Peter Beattie took office in minority, then won a landslide next term. He stepped down and his successor Anna Bligh won a term in her own right).
In hindsight, it is better for Labor to lose in 2026 as the Coalition if taking office in a weak position would be like Baillieu struggling to control both his party members and the direction of government, allowing Labor to return to office at the next election. In contrast, by winning an extra term like NSW and Queensland enabled the opposition to be more empowered and led to landslide defeats for Labor at the next election instead.
@ Yoh An
Yeah i think if Labor loses narrowly and the Libs win a weird combination of seats such as St Albans and Kew then the Victorian Coalition government will be like the CLP government between 2012-2016 there will be infighting and Labor can win in 2030 with a refreshed team
the clp lost because there seats were basically all regional seats and the darwin places felt negleted. in vic its impossible to win without the melbourne ones.
the clp lost because there seats were basically all regional seats and the darwin places felt negleted. in vic its impossible to win without the melbourne ones.
@ John
yes they won a combination of Aboriginal seats and rural white seats (polar opposites). I am saying if the Victorian Libs win a combination of socially conservative working class seats like St Albans, Greenvale but fail to win Sandbelt seats then the new Liberal MPs in western suburbs will focus on social issues than economic issues and will be hard to pander to them and affluent voters in the eastern suburbs. It is like what you and i discussed last week on the Lindsay thread if the Libs win Fowler same issue arises.
Surely Pesutto is cactus after this. I said at the time his political antennae were all wrong on this – the real issue should have been ‘who let the Nazi’s through?’. Now, he can’t even tell the truth about a member of his own party, how is going to effectively communicate?
I do think the only reason the Libs are competitive is the failings of the Allen Government.
Pesutto, Southwick, and Crozier must all be removed. Their positions are untenable.
@The Sheriff Pesutto just mentioned that he intends to stay on as leader, and he doesn’t want Deeming back personally but won’t obstruct others from invoking any motions to move her back. Talk about being spineless, he’s the leader for goodness sake and if he doesn’t want to stand up to the extreme right wing Deeming then he’s got no hope of turning the party back to being sensible.
The whole Moira Deeming affair shows that major political parties should not endorse single issue ‘activists’. They tend to fixate on their particular issue and lose all sight and perspective of the political picture. That is when they cause damage. The other issue with ‘activists’ is that they tend to be polarising and there are other ‘activists’ out there actively opposing them.
It’s a lose-lose situation for him really.
If he stands up to the right-wing of the party, today’s ruling will give them ammunition to challenge his leadership.
If he doesn’t stand up to the right-wing of the party because he’s scared of them doing that, they walk all over him and he struggles to steer the party in the only direction that will make them competitive.
@Trent if he doesn’t stand up to them then they’ll just walk over him and knife him from behind anyway. It’s clear that his role is unsustainable until he flushes the far right from his party.
Agree Trent and Tommo, Pesutto if he surrenders and waves the white flag in defeat will end up like Malcolm Turnbull where he is forced to step down as leader and a hardcore conservative from the right faction will take over as leader instead.
I do agree with Trent that it is a loose-loose situation for Pesutto, even if she stays as leader the right flank will push him rightwards as they have already done on the Residential Gas Phase out, Voice, state based treaty. I do believe Deeming even if readmitted to the team will play her own games and not for the team. I think the hope that the party will focus on economic based differentiation rather than social policy is gone for sometime.
I’d like to know what constitutes the ‘far right’ in this case Tommo9?
Ultimately no one who isn’t a culture war nutcase (on the left or the right) cares one way or the other about this.
If Pesutto stays on and even somewhat controls his party, he’ll win.
Ordinary people don’t care about stuff like this when debt is rapidly approaching 200 billion.
@scart if he goes bankrupt he’ll be forced to quit
@ Scart
The issue is not whether you or I care about culture ward. I am more interested in economic issues than which toilet people attend or what someones pronouns are. However, there is part of the Liberal party who do think that way especially the membership and mark my word they are emboldened and they will sabotage Pesutto. Remember what happened to John Brogden, he was on track to defeat NSW Labor in 2007 but the right wing destroyed him. There maybe DLP’s Adam Someryek who will propose to over turn the Abortion laws like what happened at the recent QLD election. I would not be surprised if some Liberal candidate will call for abstinence to be promoted in schools. Moira Deeming recently called Pesutto “Labor Lite” and wants more difference on social policy.
Neither Pesutto nor Deeming would’ve been elected if not for the Liberal Party. Best outcome is both become persona non grata.
The party is bigger than any one individual
@Ninalan Exactly, which is why I said that as long as he isn’t sabotaged or significantly undermined, he’ll win.
@ Scart
I do agree with you on principle the difference between both parties should be economic. However, thats not a view shared by all. A lot of people argue that the new divide/cleavage in society is now values not socio-economics and the Liberal party ought to reach out to focus on issues of values/social policy. I have a friend who is a rank and file Liberal member who supports Deeming but says he sees the future of the Liberal party as somewhat like the DLP (Economically left-wing, Socially-Right wing). If you look up thread Trent almost correctly predicated what would happen two years ago. A lot of people like Deeming/Bev Macarthur/Renee Heath are less interested in the debt but more interested in what people do within the four walls of their bedrooms. I am not optimistic that Pesutto will not be sabotaged
I agree Scart too that the public mostly don’t care about this saga, and that the case itself seemed to have no impact whatsoever on their polling.
The impact is on Pesutto’s influence over the party, and that’s what can translate to an impact on polling. If his influence is undermined, or he is challenged and replaced by a more conservative leader, or he has to make serious concessions to the right-flank that force the Liberals to adopt policies that are widely unpopular, those are the things that will hurt the Liberal Party. And I think today’s ruling just increased the chance of all of that happening.
@Nimalan doesn’t One Nation and the SFF parties already occupy that space. To a lesser extent the resurrected Family First.
I expected Deeming to join Hanson regardless of the court decision.
The collapse of the CDP and smaller socially conservative parties did see many return to the Liberals but a viable right win alternative in the mould of a Reform UK style party could see the resumption of membership bleeding.
Libs have been fortunate that in recent years Fred Nile retired, Latham
imploded and Hanson has become older and less potent with no heir apparent.
Shooters are too provincial and Family First/DLP too sectarian. UAP and Libertarian don’t have enough cut through at a broad scale to harness the voting populous.
@ FP
I dont think ONP/SFF is what Moira Deeming is. Moira Deeming is a religious conservative while ONP is a nationalist party different types of Conservatism. Moira Deeming is more FFP/DLP which is religious based. The issue is Labor regional seats like South Barwon, Ballarat, Bendigo seats are becoming more socially progressive with tree changers/sea changers so a ONP/SFF type vote is less potent in Victoria. What Victorian Liberals are trying to win is more religious working class voters often ethnic similar to Western Sydney. There is arguments Moira Deeming could appeal to Muslims etc and win Greenvale etc by focusing on LGBT issues. I think Credlin, Tony Abbott and the right flank will keep pushing until Deeming has rejoined the party room. They are trying to change the party from within.
She’s effectively a replacement for Bernie Finn
@ Darth Vader
Spot on i could not put it better myself. Matt Guy was able to expel Bernie Finn without much damage. Maybe the right flank overlook that as they were motivated to oust Andrews but Pesutto could not do that.
@Nimalan Andrews was still premier when Moira was ousted.
Maybe it’s an age thing, as Finn was clearly near enough to the end of his career whole Moira isn’t/wasn’t
@ Scart
Yes Andrews was still Premier when Moira was ousted but the had just won the 3rd term and most people expected that he would retire mid-term so i think post his November 2022 there was less incentive for the right flank to play for the team so they were willing to play their own games.
It could be an age thing like you said. There is another theory i have which is the contradictory swings at the 2022 state elections. The Moderates will point out as the Libs moderate their platform for example legislated 2030 targets, support for an LGBT Legal service, funding Joy FM not talking about African gangs, safe schools or building a new Coal powered station, they actually got swings to them in affluent seats (Caulfield, Sandringham, Brighton, Nepean and Hawthorn). The right flank on the other hand argue they should focus on St Albans, Greenvale, Mill Park etc areas that are often religiously conservative and Moira Deeming maybe an asset there. I think both wings of the party were emboldened and fought it out.
I can tell you this though I saw her CPAC last year and she received a standing ovation from the people attending. The membership of the party certainly support her over pesutto.
@Darth Vader that’s because CPAC is right-wing and socially conservative. CPAC literally stands for Conservative Political Action Conference. It started out with Republicans in the US, who are far more right-wing than Liberals and Nationals in Australia these days. The American CPAC is organised by the American Conservative Union (ACU). It has since spread outside the US to other countries such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Hungary, Japan, Mexico and South Korea. Historically CPAC was just a Republican convention but now it’s more of a right-wing Trumpist event.
Have a look at who was at the first Australian CPAC in August 2019: Tony Abbott, Nigel Farage, Raheem Kassam (a British former editor-in-chief for the right-wing media outlet Breitbart News and an associate of Farage) and Mark Latham. Craig Kelly and Amanda Stoker also attended. In 2022, while her invite was eventually rescinded, Lauren Southern (a Canadian right-wing conspiracy theorist YouTuber who believes in the Great Replacement conspiracy theory) was initially invited to that year’s CPAC.
Therefore saying she got a standing ovation from CPAC doesn’t mean she is supported by Liberal members or voters. It just means she is supported by a group of people that most of which have no place in the Liberal Party.
@Nimalan even if they did focus on social issues personally I don’t think they’d win Mill Park or St Albans. It’s a lose-lose situation if they did that because they’d lose the moderate, affluent Eastern Suburbs seats to teals and still not win any Northern or Western Suburbs seats. Greenvale is a potential target because it’s overall more Liberal but St Albans is the Mount Druitt of the South. Definitely not somewhere I’d want to be stuck in.
Basically any suburb where I would be worried about getting stabbed is most likely a Labor suburb that the Liberals can’t win. St Albans fits in that category.
@ NP
Thats is not my view either but it is a view out there. I agree St Albans is very Dangerous suburb. If we look at Greenvale half of the seat is aspiration (western half) but eastern half is very dangerous (Meadow Heights/Roxburgh Park) there has been many drive by shooting and there has been anti-terror raids in Meadow Heights. Buses had stop going through Roxburgh Park at night because drivers were had rocks thrown by youth and too scared to drive through.
Jacinta allan shoo-in 2026 if pesutto stops being leader… simple as that
Deprived electorates will always vote center left because welfare payments are higher that way
For Greenvale though, you also have to take into account the large Muslim Community some had preference Libs over Labor (due to the pandemic backlash) but given the Gaza issue with Libs being heavily pro-Israel (which assume will still somewhat lurk in 2026), I assume some correct back to Labor in preferences