ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
It will be 2030 at least until they are in government hopefully the redistribution after 2026 will be more favourable.
Why is it assumed Northcote will go Green? If not for Liberal preferences Labor’s margin would be about 4% and I believe there would have been a swing to Labor from the Greens last election without the Liberal preference change. The Liberals won’t preference the Greens again. Especially not with the war in Gaza.
Kat is a popular local member, Jacinta Allan would probably be popular in Northcote. The Greens vote isn’t rising exponentially?
@Adam didn’t she have her office targeted by those morons though?
Also, these pro-Palestine nutcases are so clueless, do they actually think that a state government has any bearing on foreign policy?
@Adam surprised Northcote didnt go green in 2022… Its densifying and the Palestine issue and housing will swing progressive voters to the greens. IMO Libs in this area will choose to preference the greens over labor
@dragons i reckon the libs should do a backroom deal with them preferences in exchange for minority govt support
@John Yes that would be a smart move and would make the party more moderate that might broaden its appeal in Victoria. It would help secure Pascoe Vale and Albert Park as green gains and help swing Preston and Footscray
@up and if the greens betray the deal the libs would just preference against them next election. the only trouble is labor would need to be kept to 43 seats or less and by my estimates on all the marginals can only be reduced to 44
Very hard if The Greens will support a Liberal Minority Government and/or Libs preferring Greens over Labor in 2026 given the Gaza War meaning as doing is viewed a betrayal from the Jewish Community and Pro Israel groups. Afterall there were talks within the Libs to put Greens last in the preferences due to the war.
@marh by 2026 the gaza war will be over and some sort of peace deal
@Up the dragons This is a highly educated electorate so I think most people know that the war in Gaza has nothing to do with Victorian state politics, plus the war will hopefully be over by 2026.
Labor has built new public housing in this electorate, so has a record to stand on there.
Liberals will kiss goodbye the 2026 election and Labor will yet again win another majority if Brad Battin topples Pessuto which is being reported in the newspapers.
Liberals getting rid of a moderate leader and shifting to the right is political suicide, I can’t vote for a premier Battin, not could I vote for a Newbury, all right-wingers, not sure about Groth but he is probably like the other 2.
I wouldn’t rule out an increased Labor majority if Battin is leader, polls will turn against the Libs weeks after Pessuto is toppled.
Pessuto is credible, moderate. Something this state needs. But this seat will be a Labor gain if Pessuto is toppled, and especially will be a Labor gain if Pessuto retires which will be more likely if he is toppled.
Newbury is not right wing, he caused quite a commotion by opposing duck hunting which threatened the Coalition agreement with the Nationals.
The greens cannot and will not do any d deals with the liberals. To do so would mean they lose ALL their seats to Labor.
Growth doesn’t seem too bad, he’s a ex-tennis player and also very young at only 36.
On the other hand, they can kiss the next election goodbye if Battin wins
Groth*
Dont know why the libs would even be considering getting rid of pesutto! there only starting to get ahead of labor now with him. Only a moderate team can win for the Libs in victoria, its not 1992 anymore
Mr pesutto ‘s main problem is his own party!
Moira Deeming’s defamation battle and factionalism are the main problems for Pesutto, not the polling. Both can make or break his leadership. Not to mention, Sky News (especially Peta Credlin) have beef with him. The polling shows LNP ahead of Labor.
Pesutto has only himself to blame for the defamation saga.
Battin isn’t winning the next election. It would be electoral suicide the for Libs to choose him. I would be daring to say even he would lose his own seat as well. Jason Wood is not safe in La Trobe either.
Labor would probably be in a lot more trouble in Victoria if they weren’t facing a Liberal opposition exclusively focused on tearing themselves apart.
Jason Wood was one of the few Liberal MPs to get a positive 2PP swing in 2022, so he wouldn’t be facing any issues.
Ian, that is one election, I disagree. If the Libs keep getting swings sure. but it still is demographically a swing seat. It will swing back to Labor but probably not enough to take it this time, but next time a first term Lib-Gov is in office it will flip or next time Labor is in gov. (especially if the boundaries shift west) because new housing development around Clyde will only benefit Labor long term.
Pesutto welcomes a leadership spill. Kim Wells and Brad Battin are touted as potential challengers. Battin is currently overseas (so says the ABC). Sam Groth is quite new and may not have the numbers. Pesutto has Jeff Kennett’s backing.
@Votante both from the right faction right?
Pesutto needs to stay as leader. Even Daniel T who is a Labor voter said he’s voting Liberal in 2026 if Pesutto stays.
Of the Victorian liberals wish to self destruct…
@Votante, I assume it would be Brad Batting though as Kim Wells has already been an MP for more than three decades
@Nether Portal, I believe so. Back last year, I didn’t think Pesutto could last a full term as leader given his factional rivals were waiting in the wings. Now that Jacinta Allan’s honeymoon period has rubbed off, at least Pesutto’s got some hope at least.
Victoria Labor’s greatest asset is the Victorian Liberals, regardless of what happens I don’t John Pesutto making it to the 2026 election or retaining his seat.
In all my years of following politics I’ve never seen a political wing/organisation as incompetent, useless and in many ways suicidal as the Victorian Liberals. They’re in pole position in the polls to win the next election and all because of the Deeming drama they just can’t help themselves trying to disintegrate intentionally. Pesutto is a decent man I’m sure but he’s on borrowed time. If he survives now he won’t make it past Christmas and he’s got too much dignity to hang around this rabble. Hawthorn could well be a Greens/IND/Labor gain if he causes a by-election.
At the rate this is going Victoria Labor could just sit back and do nothing and win a majority come 2026, even with Jacinta Allan sliding further today. Two years can be a long time in politics but one thing is certain, disunity is death and Labor may possibly romp it home by just being united as one.
Anyway, keep Pesutto.
After the 2022 election I though pesutto would be better then battin but I don’t approve of the way he has treated deeming and this is the opinion of most of the rank and file membership. I believe if pesutto could quietly end this sage by apologising and welcoming her back in the members would unite behind pesutto and he would easily beat Allen in 2026.
Moira Deeming came into parliament as an ‘activist’ – she is proof positive that major parties should not endorse activists. They fixate on one issue and cannot see the big multi faceted political picture.
I can assure you she has the support of the rank and file members and that is what’s dividing the liberal party
Might be the opinion of liberal members but its not the opinion of the Victorian public who will decide who runs the state. Pesutto did the right thing
Yea but it’s tearing the party apart from inside out. And it’s basically a captains call not the opinion of the shadow cabinet or party room as a whole. Disunity is death.
The problem is this is entirely Pesutto’s own making. He was gifted an open goal to attack the Andrews Government and managed to miss everything. By attacking one of his own members, at least partially without merit, he is left isolated and relying on the fact he is of the same class as much of the media so will get an easy ride as pretty much his only appeal. And you all think he will be a match for Andrews protégé, notwithstanding the issues Victoria is facing?
Indeed. Win or lose, Pesutto will lead an ultimately divided party, with all of their dirty laundry aired, it would be impossible for there to be any trust left. The only solution would be that all involved including Pesutto, Crozier and Southwick leave politics and start fresh with an entirely new team.
It might be time for Peta Credlin to enter parliament – put up or shut up! And while we are at it Simon Holmes a’Court could have a go too. Though being unaccountable behind the scenes is probably infinitely easier.
FINALLY THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NEW GOVERNMENT IN VICTORIA!
The southern states, known for their progressivism and small-l-liberalism, look more and more likely to go blue on the state level.
A Redbridge poll conducted from 26 September to 3 October with 1,516 respondents has found that the Coalition lead Labor 51-49% in Victoria, with the Coalition at 40% primaries, Labor at 30%, the Greens at 12% and others at 18%.
Unfortunately there was no preferred Premier question in that poll (Redbridge never does this for some reason) but I would say that John Pesutto would lead Jacinta Allan as preferred Premier.
This is the first time since June 2017 that the Coalition has led Labor in a Victorian state poll.
I’d wait until the Liberal leadership turmoil is over as this poll had some of its data collected before this whole fiasco. Also the LNP in Victoria lead in the poll by wolf & smith back in August 52-48, so this is the second poll where they lead.
It has been reported in The Australian that Greg Hunt has been approached to enter state politics and run for the leadership of the Victorian Liberal party
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fgreg-hunt-asked-to-lead-victorian-libs-amid-political-crisis-facing-john-pesutto-over-moira-deeming-case%2Fnews-story%2Fea5511b786ec0824a85460db4b38b287&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
What seat would he run in? He can’t run in Nepean, He would have to run in Hastings, But I don’t want a premier Hunt, He is unqualified based on his time as federal minister. And he wanted Turnbull ousted as PM in 2018.
He could lose Hastings and his plan to get into parliament could backfire, He also won’t run in Mornington unless Crewther steps aside
Nepean, Mornington, Hastings and Bass are his only options unless he wants to be seen as a seat-shopper or parachuted candidate which would only hurt him anyway.
He won’t run in Bass surely not, He would have to run in Hastings and lose.
The Victorian Liberals are absolutely crazy. Hunt is no Campbell Newman and Pesutto’s arguably their best chance to be competitive in 2026 even though he’s already collateral damage. Any manouvere they undergo in the next little while will be scrutinised and if they’re stupid enough to get rid of the incumbent they’ll be punished in the polls despite what it currently says.
What I find staggering about the Victoria Liberal opposition is there ability to completely ruin themselves especially when they seem to be finally cutting through It was rumoured that Greg Hunt stood down in 2022 as they worried about losing his electorate to an independent. History would be on the Liberals side as for 2026 the government would be 12 years old and no Labor government (which is a record for Labor to be consecutively elected served time) as of current has been elected for a forth term.
Josh Frydenberg would be a far superior choice to lead from outside parliament. Greg Hunt has very few choices to get into state parliament. Also, he doesn’t have the cut-through or profile that Campbell Newman had as the QLD Opposition Leader. He also has political baggage from his time as the federal Health Minister and from driving the coup against Malcolm Turnbull in 2018.
LNP beat Labor in opinion polling in mid-2017 but the following year, Labor scored a 2PP swing and increased their majority. A lot of it was an endorsement of the Big Build and level crossing removals. Add to that, Matthew Guy wasn’t premiership material.
Jacinta Allan’s lustre and honeymoon have long faded. There’s the “it’s time” factor and the euphoria from the Big Build is also subsiding. There may be some sugar hits coming from various projects, namely the opening of the West Gate Tunnel and Metro Tunnel.
The thing that Labor has is time. They can afford to take risks now and switch to campaign mode in 2026. A dysfunctional opposition would widen their path to retaining or getting minority government.
Moderate women like Kelly odwyer or Katie allen (if she loses in chisholm) and former state mps and heidi victoria and mary wooldridge would be good to have in Vic parliament
The fallout of defamation case isn’t going to help John at all.
Moira deeming won the defamation case and has been awarded $300,000 in damaged not sure if this is the end of Pesutto.
@SpaceFish @Nimalan I don’t think it will be.