Hawthorn – Victoria 2022

@ Redistributed/Trent, what do you predict the primary vote for Lib, ALP, Teal and Greens would be in Hawthorn

Pick again as line ball.a Labor
Win would not suprise

I am listening to Viriginia Trioli broadcast from Hawthorn.
1.AJP will preference the Teals then Greens before Labor
2. There is a voter who likes Daniel Andrews who was once a Liberal voter who turned against them due to climate change but will vote Teal over Labor as he the option even though he is grateful to Labor.
3. Interesting to see if LDP and FFP will preference Labor or Teals first.

https://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/live

I was leaning more towards an ALP v LIB race here but now with the Greens preferencing Melissa Lowe, I’m leaning more towards IND v LIB.

Really hard to predict the primary votes but I would probably say something like:

LIB – 39%
IND – 23%
ALP – 22%
GRN – 12%
Others – 4%

If that turned out to be an ALP v LIB race I would probably think Pesutto wins based on only needing about 7% in preferences from Lowe (after getting about 4-5% from Greens + Others).

Whereas I think an IND v LIB race, which is probably more likely now based on the Greens HTV card, Lowe wins by around 53-47 as she will get the lion’s share of preferences from ALP & GRN.

I remember early on there was discussion about how independents don’t have many prospects in this election. Now we’re talking about independents winning seats from both major parties all over the state.

This seat will be an absolute mess, it could possibly be days or weeks until we know who has won here.

How much effort are the ALP putting into Hawthorn? It seems they are running dead in some seats – in Ringwood, absolutely nothing – but in Box Hill a lot of effort. Anybody have insights?

Nicholas I still think for the most part they will fizzle out, but there are a handful of metro seats where I think they would be competitive:

* Kew – Sophie Torney (most likely to win I think)
* Hawthorn – Melissa Lowe
* Melton – Ian Birchall

That’s about it I think. I still don’t predict that the IND will overtake Labor in Caulfield; and I don’t think the INDs have any chance at all of overtaking Labor in Brighton & Sandringham.

I think if Garra was running in Werribee again he may have had a better chance, but since he’s running in Point Cook I think both seats will be ALP v LIB now. The nutters running in Mulgrave have zero chance.

I think the regional seats are where there will be more IND races – eg. Mildura, Shepparton, Benambra, South West Coast.

Trent
I would’ve guffawed at myself writing these words even a few months ago, but I have concerns regarding the retention of Mulgrave by Andrews. I’ll post them in the Mulgrave thread.

If Melissa Lowe gets 30-something in primary vote on election night then she’s in with a chance to become the first independent in possibly decades to flip a Labor seat at a Victorian general election. She will advance with Greens and Labor preferences.

Bear in mind, where the teals flipped Liberal seats at the federal election:
1. Most of them got 30-something percent in primary votes, though Monique Ryan got 40% in Kooyong.
2. There were much bigger swings, in relative terms, away from Labor/Greens than from the Liberals. Labor and Greens were even dragged down to single digits in some cases.

Teal preferences are quite tricky to predict and so if she gets to third or fourth place, it might help John Pesutto win. I’m assuming that there would be some natural pullback from Labor from their 2018 election peak.

I was speaking with a cluey Hawthorn local the other day who said the teal running here has nowhere near the profile and presence of the federal teals, they aren’t out on the streets, in the news constantly and as ‘visible’ to the locals as he put it.

Pretty hard to see them running ahead of a Labor incumbent even on green preferences

@Maxim

If that’s the case, and it’s a Lib vs ALP, I think Pesutto might get over the line.

@ Mark

Agree if it is Lib/ALP contest then Pesutto has a good chance as some Teal voters will preference Lib over Labor. I think Labor retain is the least likely outcome as more of the Labor vote is soft.

Agreed @Nimalan

Kos Samaras, for all criticisms of him, has spoken multiple times at how soft the Labor vote is for this election.

@Mark
Have a listen to Ben’s podcast from last week where he interviewed Benita Kavalos from The Guardian. Benita did interview quite a few people in Hawthorn a lot them felt guilty about voting him out last time. Ironically, Pesutto losing his seat on national TV last time has lifted his profile

@nimalan

Thanks, I’ll give it a listen.

If that’s the case, I think Pesutto wins. They probably know that Pesutto would likely be liberal leader had he won his seat, and he’s the type of liberal that the liberals need, really.

The ongoing questions about far right views that have been tolerated in the Victorian Liberal party (Renee Heath, and now Timothy Dragan) will certainly help Melissa Lowe here. I would put her as favourite now.

Given the LNP current issues with the far right it would be fair to say they won’t win here

The whole issue here is this seat should be a certainty for the libs and it is not..I would pick John to fail to regain his seat.. he is to an extent a hope for the liberals as leadership material. ..who of Labor or teals wins here does not matter. Who fails the endorsed liberal does for the potential of the liberals future.

@Mick

You just predicted that Labor would hold 70-75 seats

Sorry, but your comments aren’t to be taken seriously. The teal campaign and Labor will likely cancel each other out.

For teal to win, Labor has to shrink into the single digits on primary vote, and it won’t as Labor are the incumbents. For Labor to win, the same has to happen to teal.

@Mark, how do you come up with that conclusion? It’s ridiculous to speak of campaigns cancelling each other out when we have preferential voting.

@ Mark
Please don’t take the wrong way I respect Pesutto but I think the Teal has a very good chance here due to preference flow while Labor is unlikely here.
If it is Lib/Labor contest then Pesutto wins but if it is a Lib/IND contest then the Teal is a good position. it is possible for the Teal to win with just 21% of the primary vote and Labor getting 23% as the AJP and greens will preference Teal over Labor. it is only LDP that will preference Labor over Teal but that is a mute point since they will give a Pesutto their second preference so unless it is Labor/independent contest in cannot see Labor winning here.

Nimalan, would Hawthorn be similar to the contest in North Sydney where Kylea Tink defeated Trent Zimmerman despite polling only 25% first preference votes? In North Sydney, the flow from Labor and minor parties was strong enough to allow Tink to defeat Zimmerman who started out on 38% first preferences.

It all depends on how the liberal vote performs, if Pesutto can still remain above 40% then he will be favored to win.

Mark of course no one knows till election day we will see on the night of the 26th. My comments were very serious. There are a lot of seats with a margin of less than 2% especially on the liberal side.. I see in total 2022 being similar to 2018 with a slight advantage to Labor.. pls look at my logic in my posts and tell me it is impossible..I have in essence picked a disaster to the liberals.. greens status quo..nats to keep most of their seats minus maybe 2. And the liberals to lose seats to independents eg South west Coast..if you have 88 seats and you give 5 to independents 10 ish to the libs and Nats.. then labor indeed gets the remainder which is 70 odd…my prediction is not unreasonable..eg who would you pick for Polwarth I would pick it to be very tight with maybe labor being slightly favoured.. don’t assume the global figures are wrong just because it seems crazy that labor will win another 12 seats.. project seat by seat and you will see

Mick, going on a seat-by-seat projection Labor are only favored to gain a few seats at best (Caufield and Glen Waverley) where they are slightly favored, and toss-up contests like Bayswater (notional gain).

I see Labor being clear underdogs in places such as Nepean/Pakenham (against Liberals), Melton against an independent (likely Ian Birchall but could be Jarrod Bingham) and also Richmond/Northcote against Greens. Combined with other close contests in Cranbourne and Point Cook, the overall outcome is likely to be a net loss of several seats (5-10) for Labor with the ALP holding a narrow majority or forced into minority status.

70 seats for Labor… There’s a path for Labor to attain this – if there’s a modest swing to Labor in the eastern suburbs, and the swing against Labor in the outer suburbs is in the single digits, they’ll come close.

Because of the current electoral map, this could happen even with there being a statewide swing to the Coalition, and even with the statewide 2PP being closer than the polls are suggesting. The statewide 2PP (which of course is what polls seek to estimate) is perhaps less relevant in this election than it has been in any state or federal election in my lifetime.

I’d say 70 seats for Labor is unlikely but plausible.

@ Yoh An, Exactly this almost exactly like North Sydney where Teal and Labor can both poll strongly. It is easier for the Teal to get above Labor due to favourable preference flows.

One data point I haven’t seen mentioned yet is that teals didn’t do very well in seats where Labor ultimately won (Boothby) or were seen as competitive (Casey).

I think it will be ALP vs Lib 2PP. Labor would be home easily if Melissa Lowe recommended preferences to them, but running an open ticket might gave Pesutto a boost that he otherwise wouldn’t have had if Lowe wasn’t running at all. Disgruntled Liberal voters now have somewhere to park their votes without risking Labor.

I suspect a seat like this would have many disgruntled Liberal voters that didn’t expect Labor to actually win. Pesutto losing with dignity actually raised his profile, and I can imagine the narrative that Pesutto winning again would be good to stop the Liberals slide to extremism catching on.

But don’t write Kennedy off. Incumbency is a big advantage and the seat’s demographics have actually changed such that he could win again.

One thing is clear. Greens did quite well last time in a generally pretty mediocre election for them, with most of the swing against explainable by other not right wing sounding micros running. But I expect their vote to plummet as Lowe and the ALP incumbent hoover them up. There was some narrative that this seat would eventually become Liberal vs Green, but the rise of teals and Labor actually winning here have locked them out without some kind of grand Green/Teal agreement. Greens will likely be running an upper house focused campaign here, which they did with some success in teal targets even as their lower house primary vote plummeted.

John good post

@ John

That was what I was trying to get at but I’m honestly hungover from last night and couldn’t be bothered!

The dynamics of this seat is completely different to the federal election

I don’t know if i’m been hyperbolic here but didn’t Lowe practically get caught bribing students to volunteer for her for better grades, could this be one for IBAC. Also genuine question, what’s the point in voting for Lowe. Isn’t the whole point of Teals about integrity in politics. What’s the point in voting for someone that could be put in front of IBAC as soon as they’re elected, especially one that campaigns on integrity.

The Teals in Victoria aren’t really running on integrity in the same way they did in the federal election. Victoria already has the IBAC, whereas federally there’s nothing.

It’s more a case of giving an option to socially progressive small-L liberal voters who are increasingly dismayed at the growing religious conservatism, climate denial and general culture war stuff in the Liberal party.

@Yoh An
I live in North Sydney
Also note that North Sydney’s ALP vs LNP 2 party preferred Margin back in May was 1.26%, which is tighter than Federal Bass (Archer’s Seat, the Ejector Seat). Well, Warringah also had a tight ALP vs LNP margin but that was because of the candidate. In the absence of both Tink (who beat Labor at the 3pp stage) and Zimmerman (Who probably saved a few % of the margin), ALP would’ve won I think.
I also note that the difference between whether ALP or Tink got knocked out first looked like the Greens preferences (Though they get followed at lower rates than Labor and LNP HTVs). Greens HTVs preferenced Teals over Labor in both North Sydney and Hawthorn.
Assuming Hawthorn will be similar, ALP vote will tank but will hold up MUCH better than most of the federal Teal seats. Whoever gets knocked out at 3pp will be important I guess.
Pesutto probably wins if it is a traditional Labor vs LNP matchup, but Labor might still win (however unlikely that is)
Teals (Lowe) will almost certainly win if it is a Teal vs LNP matchup, which looks to be the case based on Greens HTVs and North Sydney.

Go, Johnny! You can do it. The Liberal party needs you. He is ahead!

I’d like to see a Teal win a seat, but at the same time, I’d also like to see Pesutto become Liberal leader.

We need an effective opposition in Victoria.

I sincerely hope Pesutto wins. Jess Wilson also won. Those are 2 figures that can take the party in a different direction and set them up well for 2026.

If Pesutto is leader, I might even get involved. It was embarrassing with Guy again. I virtually voted with a peg clamped firmly upon my nose.

@ Nicholas/Mark
I actually think there is hope for Moderate Liberalism after this election result and it is not actually a realignment of the affluent to the left. If you look at the results in Brighton, Sandringham, Mornington (contains Mt Eliza), Nepean (Blairgowrie-Portsea), Hawthorn, Kew and Caulfield the Labor primary is down significantly and maybe the Teals even if they did nt win have educated the Liberals to move back to the centre and not follow Tim Smith’s advice. The Liberals clearly did better by not running a campaign on African gangs, being pro-climate action etc. The Teals have taken soft Labor votes and many have flowed back to the Liberals in preferences. It will be interesting to know once the final results are out what the Lib/ALP TPP in Hawthorn, Kew and Mornington is. I suspect they are among the strongest Liberal seats like Brighton and Malvern once again. All this shows that the affluent are not moving towards social democracy as many have suggest and want true Liberalism If Pesutto is leader they should attempt to get a respectable vote in Albert Park and outpoll Labor on Primaries once again. Interestingly, in my comments on the Malvern thread i said many in suburbs such as Glen Iris, Armadale, Malvern etc held their noses in May and voted for the least worst option in Ananda-Rajah the exact words Mark said to describe what he did. Politics should be a race to the Top not voting for the least worse option. It was the party that left them May not the other around.

Agree completely Nimalan

Although I voted for Labor previously so I’m not a traditional liberal voter, I’m just moving that way on the economic front.

Labor have become too left for me I think. I did contribute to that ~7% swing against Labor in the west. Many people I know over here no longer like Labor or their policies, and the party cannot keep sustaining such large swings against them in the north and west. Otherwise, all it’ll take during one future cycle is a relatively small uniform swing and a whole bunch of seats will fall blue.

It also confirms that there are two Melbournes, and they’re shifting. My seat had a near 9% swing towards the Libs and away from Labor. Similar swings were recorded TO Labor in places like Ringwood (although not as large).

I hope Pesutto takes the reigns and bolsters the party for 2026. He’s someone who can actually lead and be premier. And yes, those moderate liberals are still there. And I suspect with a leader such as Pesutto, seats like Box Hill, Ringwood, Glen Waverley would’ve all been returned to the lib column, along with others along the sand belt.

I think the Libs needed a bit of a clean-out.

Agree Nimalan and Mark, Pesutto is stylistically similar to former leader and Premier Ted Bailleu so he can possibly unite both the moderate and conservative factions. This would enable the Coalition/Liberals to pick up marginal seats across both the Eastern and Western sides of Melbourne.

@Mark and Yoh An
If the SRL is cancelled by Labor or embraced by the Libs then it makes Pesutto’s job easier with winning back Ashwood, Box Hill, Glen Waverley, Ringwood etc. Those swings to Labor are mostly because of two things; 1. SRL and/or 2. Mandarin-speaking voters.

Ian, I see the SRL whilst good in principle may be a bit over the top (OTT) in terms of a transport solution for the middle ring suburbs of Melbourne. Maybe a bus rapid transit network similar to the South and North busways of Brisbane may be a better solution that can be achieved both cheaper and in a shorter timeframe.

@Yoh An
I live in Ashwood and I personally don’t really care about the SRL. If I need to get to Tulla on PT, I can catch route 901 from Doncaster. You’re right, BRT is a more plausible idea for those suburbs in the style of Brisbane.

I live is Melbourne’s Eastern middle ring and I can tell you that it is impossible to build Brisbane style busways since most major roads there are quite narrow unless there is mass acquisition of homes which would be very expensive and be a political suicide. Plus much of Brisbane’s busways are already on exisiting corridors like motorways

Marh, for Melbourne you may not need a dedicated corridor, but just alter some existing arterial roads to add bus lanes (similar to Victoria Rd and Epping Rd for Sydney that enable frequent buses to run limited stops). This will also be applied in Brisbane north of Kedron Brook with bus lanes added for Gympie Road to accommodate buses running to Chermside and northern suburbs instead of building a dedicated underground bus corridor.

@Yoh An The roads in eastern Melbourne are very narrow and often are just 1 lane in each direction, meaning there’s no space for dedicated and frequent busses. There is already a bus service that roughly covers the area of the SRL but it is overcapacity, with poor frequency at certain times and has reliability issues due to the traffic.

Dan and Marh, if you are familiar with the layout of Eastern Melbourne – is it very different to the arrangement of Northern Sydney because places such as Epping and Ryde feature the wide 2-3 lane arterial roads that can accommodate bus lanes.

The Libs actually did pretty well in the teal seats here with Brighton back at it’s 2014 margin and the Libs having swings to them in Malvern, Caulfield, Sandringham. It’s really just the middle eastern suburb seats that the Libs really underperformed but unfortunately for them those are the ones the Libs had to win back and the areas where the Libs got massive swings to them didn’t flip any seats or even make any seats marginal (except Melton which was already marginal)

@Yoh An Eastern Melbourne roads aren’t particularly wide especially in Whitehorse and Monash LGA north of Monash Freeway where it’s often just a single lane or 2 lanes cutting into 1 creating huge bottlenecks which is why there’s a lot of traffic there, especially in Box Hill. It’s only when you get to Maroondah, Manningham or Knox LGA where the roads are wider but the Stage 1 SRL isn’t running through there.

Ok Dan so does that mean Whitehorse LGA suburbs like Box Hill are similar to places such as Concord/Strathfield more towards the inner city and then Manningham/Knox LGAs are like suburbs in Ryde, Parramatta and Hornsby councils being considered middle/outer ring areas.

I’m not too sure since I’m not that familiar with Sydney, it could just simply be that Melbourne roads are generally poorly designed to begin with. But yes, I’d consider Whitehorse more inner city than Manningham and definitely Knox. Manningham was developed a lot later than Whitehorse while Knox was developed even more later.