Hawthorn – Victoria 2022

That commenter was me – I’ve come to realise that since I started following politics in 2009/10, NOT to assume old trends will hold up.

As for this year in Hawthorn? Ask me again mid-November, a seat poll would be handy here.

Thanks Nicholas and Dan M, I do think the Green vote will be pivotal. I can see a scenario in Hawthorn and possibly Brighton where a Teal comes third but wins by overtaking Labor on Green Preferences. I used North Sydney as both the Teal and Labor primary vote was low. The Teals are more stronger on emissions reduction than Labor as Dan M pointed out but it will be interesting if some Greens do not like the Teals due to their right-wing economic policies.

The Greens preferenced teals over Labor in May but I can’t see any reason they will repeat that in November:

1. They primarily did so because of the 60% vs 43% targets, not relevant in the state election;

2. It was also strategic as they knew an IND v LIB count had a better chance than an ALP v LIB count at unseating a Liberal in a seat that Labor otherwise couldn’t win. That’s not going to be the case in Caulfield, Hawthorn, Brighton and Sandringham, all of which Labor are very competitive in.

3. Federal Labor had a really small target, almost “Liberal-lite” platform on many issues. Victorian Labor by contrast are the most progressive, left wing state government in the country.

On Brighton in particular, the “teal” is literally a Liberal Party member who lost pre-selection, I can’t envision any scenario in which the Greens decide to preference a failed Liberal member over a Labor candidate who is 0.5% away from winning.

There is a lot more hostility (dare I say, nastiness) between Labor and the Greens at the Victorian state level. But @Trent makes some good points.

Just checked Kooyong – Greens preferences split 68% to Ryan, 24% to Lynch, and 8% to Frydenberg.

@ Trent, I welcome your contribution and you raise some excellent points. However, just a couple of points to note
1. Regarding Differences regarding emissions policy at a state level. I disagree the difference does not apply at a state level. The Teals want 60% while Labor wants a 50% reduction by 2030 that is still a 10% difference. The Teals including the candidate for Brighton also wants a ban on all fossil Fuel projects, new gas connections and an immediate end to logging of native forests. The Teals also want a 90% Renewable energy target by 2030 Something that Labor will not agree to.
2. I agree there is a lot of hostility between Victorian state Labor and the Greens like Nicholas correctly pointed out. This especially acute in Victoria since it was the first place where lower house labour seats were threatened by the Greens (once their Crown jewels). This is less of a case in WA, SA and NT. Bill Shorten once said “the Greens just want to eat Labor’s lunch”. Currently, the Teals and Greens are not really competing for the same seats.
3. It maybe strategic for the Teal to win in Brighton, Hawthorn etc since it will be likely to be permanently lost while if it is won by Labor as a party of government inevitably they will be become unpopular one day and the Libs can reclaim it at a future election. Some in the Labor party may feel losing Hawthorn to Teal maybe blessing in disguise and they focus on holding Bayswater and Bass as they have two younger and hard working members.
4. While the state government in Victoria maybe more socially progressive compared other governments around the country like Voluntary Euthanasia, Safe Injecting Rooms, LGBT matters etc. Economically, it very pro-business, prior to the pandemic ran big surpluses and once of the first policies was to privatise the Port of Melbourne to fund level crossing removals something the Greens opposed.
4. The state government is widely acclaimed for it PT infrastructure projects but so he was Albo when he was infrastructure minister in the previous Labor Government when he funded many Urban PT Projects more than all previous governments since Federation combined. So i dont think there is a difference between Federal and Victorian state Labor here.
5. I am not sure if the Greens want Labor to have a thumping majority if they have a small majority or minority then the Greens power on Cross bench increases like it does currently at a Federal level as the majority is very slender.
6. I am not saying Greens will do either way i dont know to be honest which is why asked this question but it worth pondering as it will have an impact. If Greens preference Labor over Teals then Labor could win from third in Hawthorn. Just curious if Green voters preference KK or Dai Le (ex-liberal) in Fowler that might give some indication.

Exclusion of Greens in Fowler: 52% Keneally, 25% Le, 13% Nguyen, 9% Lele Lepa (UAP).

I drove through Camberwell and Canterbury today. Reasonable number of John Pessutto billboards in front yards. Not a single one for any other candidate. Even though he lost, Josh Frydenburg had a well mobilised campaign in Kooyong which no doubt is available to both Pessutto and Felicity Wilson. It has to be said that John Pessutto is putting in the effort. It would be interesting to know how many resources the ALP are actually going to put into the seat.

@redistributed I heard Pesutto is running a “teal-like” ground campaign, he’s definitely the man to beat in this seat. Labor won’t bother sandbagging Hawthorn especially with someone like Kennedy, it’s a lost cause to them and a loss that they’re willing to take with compensatory gains in other seats.

Labor have been just caught spamming voters with push polls, trying to get Labor voters to get behind the teal candidate and attacking John Pesutto.

Internals can’t be looking too good here. If Pesutto gets in and leads the party, I reckon Labor are a sure loss in 2026.

The Federal Labor Government has just cut funding for the Glenferrie Road Level crossing removal, Kooyong which is a shame because anyone who has been in the area now who vital it is. I am actually surprised that the state government were never interested in working with the previous federal government on this. While this is 100 meters outside Hawthorn electorate it impacts this area and trams often get stuck here. Maybe it is a sign that Labor is not interested in the seat.

Labor is putting next to no resources into holding this electorate, I suspect letting the Liberals and Independent fight it out. They really should’ve never won this in 2018 but somehow managed to do so.

If the Liberals manage to win this back it’ll be harder for them to hold onto it in the long-term, this part of Melbourne is drifting away from the Liberal party in a similar way to Caulfield and arguably Malvern. Less large family homes who traditionally vote Liberal and more apartments and small residences who typically are younger and vote to the left of the political spectrum.

@ Ham, see the comments in the Malvern thread where i talked about the ideals of Liberalism. I agree there is densification around the railway stations but that does not explain everything especially considering that Labor’s primary vote is very low its more like the Greens/Teal will benefit from this trend not the Labor party in 2016 for example the Libs got their best result in 2PP in Kooyong since 1990 even with all the new apartments. If Pesutto does win the seat there is a chance he maybe able to move the party back to the centre

@ Nimalan

Yeah I called it early on. Labor aren’t interested in Hawthorn. They’ve removed Labor branding from John Kennedy’s handouts as well.

I really do hope John Pesutto wins and leads. We need effective and strong opposition in this state. VIC Labor have been like a bull in a China shop over the past 4/8 years.

I think you’re correct in that Libs have a chance to strengthen themselves in the east if they moderate the ship, especially based on those 2016 results.

I’m also really disappointed about the cuts that federal Labor have made to a number of needed projects and Andrews’ blatant refusal to work with the previous government, despite it being spun the other way.

@ Mark
When i was in the electorate two weeks ago i did not see a single Labor sign i had parked my car at Chatham station. I saw Teal and Liberal signs only. I am hoping to be in the area again on Saturday so looking to observe again. I do think like i said in the Malvern thread there will be some people in Hawthorn who may want Dan to return as premier but want Pesutto to be their MP so he can lead the party out of the wilderness. Regardless if you like Dan Andrews or not, A contest maters and politics should be about a race to the top not voting for the least worse option like i said about Annada-Rajah is May. Fun Fact the Labor Primary Vote in Hawthorn was lower in 2018 than in 1988 which shows not that great enthusiasm for Labor.
You are correct 100% about these projects such as Glenferrie Road Level Crossing Removal, Anyone who has been to the area knows how important it is. The previous federal government also promised planning money to Madden Grove, Burnely level crossing removal. I honestly, dont know why Andrews did not even have a conversation about this. There does need to be scrutiny on this and i hope the Media asks questions about this. Let me share a personal story to highlight how bad the Glenferrie Road Level Crossing. i was catching the Route 16 heading north wards back to Glenferrie station and i need to go to Post office to purchase stamps. i got off at the Kooyong tram stop just next to the level crossing and was able to get what i needed and when i was back the same tram that i was on was still stuck behind the level crossing and i got back on the same tram. Today Andrews announced to remove some other level crossings instead this time it included Hudson Road in Spotswood which is not a busy road surely Glenferrie Road and Madden Grove are more pressing.

I 100% agree about the Glenferrie Road level crossing, it’s possibly the worst in all of Melbourne and should be the highest priority.

I used to work in Hawthorn, and commuted to work on the 16 tram from St Kilda. Sometimes it would sit at that level crossing for 20-25 minutes. It’s an absolute nightmare, and I don’t really understand why the government hasn’t prioritised that one. Definitely a huge mistake.

Yeah agree with you both

I drove through the east on the weekend, including hawthorn and box hill. Did not see one Labor sign, saw a couple of teal signs in hawthorn but that’s it.

I still don’t consider that a reliable metric to go off, but I think it’s enough to indicate that the dynamics of the federal election probably aren’t going to be replicated at the state level.

@Nimalan

I actually live near Spotswood. That road definitely should not be higher priority than Glenferrie.

Politics getting in the way of rational planning, I think

@Mark, agree Glenferrie road has a very busy tram route like Trent said it has a major impact on tram users as well. Madden Grove, Burnley is an import arterial that connects the SE suburbs, Eastern suburbs and NE Suburbs and close to CityLink entrance. Surely it is absurd to have a level crossing here. Regarding Spotswood if MM2 is built (i hope it does and i believe it should be higher priority than SRL) then Spotswood will be quieter as Werribee lines will travel via the new tunnel to connect with Mernda line. It will only be Williamstown and Altona trains that use this section

@ Nimalan

MM2 actually has a business case as well. The SRL is labor’s version of the east-west link (but even that had a better business case). They’re pressing ahead with SRL even though it has holes in it like a sieve.

@Mark
I am really hoping MM2 is discussed at this election. It is needed to support the Wyndham growth corridor and support the Whittlesea growth corridor. It is also needed for Fishermens Bend rail access and to enable finally a Doncaster rail line.

So far both the Libs and Labor have not mentioned anything at all regarding MM2 or a Doncaster rail line meaning there is no political incentive for them to be built.

Ironically it’s really only the Greens who have even talked abt MM2 so we won’t really be hearing about it unless Dan Andrews gets into minority territory.

Serious talk on MM2 won’t really start until after the MM1 is finished. It’ll be a 2026 issue.

It is still on the long-term master plan though.

Regards the Glenferrie Rd and federal funding disappearing – the announcement in 2019 of funding by Frydenberg was a strategic gambit as part of the Vic Libs’ attack on Skyrail. It was never actually going to happen.

Engineering advice said that really the only option for this removal was skyrail, but in spite of this, Frydenberg announced that $250 million would be contributed – as long as it was rebuilt in a trench, as the Libs have gone all-in on “elevated rail = evil”, even where that’s patently ridiculous, such as a location less than 200 metres from a significantly larger eight-lane “skyroad” known as the Monash Fwy.

Also, a trench construction would have required acquisition of land from the Kooyong Lawn Tennis Club, compulsory acquisition as it turned out because they weren’t willing to sell. Frydenberg then dropped the idea, unlikely to be heard of for the near future.

It will eventually happen, but it will be rail-over, and it won’t ever be a Liberal government who does it.

I don’t get the logic behind the Libs opposition to ‘elevated’ rail overpasses – in Brisbane the LNP controlled council actively supports and is contributing funding towards at least one new elevated rail overpass in Carseldine to replace an existing level crossing. Although with that project, there was a requirement for some land acquisition, so that may offset some of the ‘eyesore’ or visual impact of the overpass by having it further away from residential properties.

Agree that elevated rail in some cases is a good option. The are some good examples where it actually fits with the surrounding landscape including in Balaclava, North Richmond and even further up the road at Glenferrie station where it fits perfectly with the surrounding retail zone. Sometimes trench rail creates a canyon that divides a community such as at Mitcham. Kooyong has a small village feel so any solution must fit with the local landscape. The Skyrail around Dandenong rail corridor was a major issue during the 2014-2018 term i remember residents were worried about people looking into their homes from the trains. Kelly O’Dwyer campaigned on it and the loss of Chisholm in 2016 is in part blamed on Skyrail as well as the Labor primary vote falling to very low levels in 2016 in Higgins.

Elevated rail is the better option in most cases. I totally agree that trench style stations like Mitcham divide the community, waste space, and look ugly. Plus it’s much more cost effective and less disruptive to build elevated rail.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Labor get swings *towards* them in the Skyrail seats at the 2018 state election? e.g. Dandenong swung 11 points to Labor! I also remember there being a lot of media outrage about the elevated level crossing removal at Carrum Station and then Carrum also swung 11 points to Labor. I think the complainers were just a vocal minority (amplified by certain media outlets), whereas a lot of people were just happy the level crossing were gone and they got much nicer new stations.

You An
CARSELDINE, in Queensland, is a short road overpass, (akin to Golf Links Rd., OAKLEIGH) not a ‘rail overpass’. The rail in CARSELDINE is untouched.
Kooyong rail crossing is more complicated, with intersecting rail. Hence a NO-TOUCH RAIL approach doesn’t address the problem. There are longer approach ramp requirements for rail, all within a shopping strip on one side of Glenferrie Rd., & adjacent double-barrelled roads beside the train-line, which would be deserving of their own ramps?

@ Some Guy, you are correct once the Skyrail was open in 2018 it actually became popular especially with all the new Green space etc. So by the time the state election occurred it did not hurt state Labor at all. However, i do feel in the early stages around 2016-2017 it was very controversial and the Federal Coalition played on the issue at the 2016 issue. There actually has been more elevated rail since.

*2016 election

Agree with you Phil, presume the overpasses for Victoria are where the rail line is elevated, not the road. Elevating the road is easier and creates less of an eyesore for residents as they don’t have much of a view of oncoming trains.

I think in most cases, elevated rail is better than a trench simply because it unites both sides of the rail line.

Digging a trench might remove the boom gates but it doesn’t provide any additional points to cross the train line. Elevated rail opens up so much more green space, bike paths, car parking, and you can walk underneath the elevated rail from pretty much anywhere to get from one side to the other.

I agree that in around 2016 before they were built, there was hesitation in the community about them being eyesores but by the time they were built in 2018, I think those fears were alleviated and people saw the benefits.

Regarding Kooyong Station in particular though, if I recall that crossing is already at the bottom of a steep dip in the road so it would be almost impossible to put rail under road here without making that shopping village inaccessible; whereas raising the rail line would actually be quite simple because the road already dips there. You could certainly make a rail bridge fit the village atmosphere I think.

@nimalan

Not really true – the booths closest to the line through Carnegie etc generally swung TOWARDS Labor, even though they lost Chisholm overall.

There has not yet been any measurable backlash to Skyrail at the polling booth. Some that had very vocal anti-Skyrail campaign swung to Labor by enormous margins (Carrum for example).

It’s the most heavily-astroturfed issue in Victorian politics.

@ Expat, my bad i thought i read an article that Anna Burke attributed the loss to a swing around Clayton but i could have misunderstood it.
Anyway for Kooyong i do feel that an Rail over solution may work well. It is near the Creek and the River is not far away so i am not sure if they could be flooding issues if they is a trench. Elevated rail will work provided it fits with the surroundings which here is a very quiet retail village and residential area. I dont actually think a view of oncoming trains is an eyesore. It will not likely be a long elevated rail like between Carnegie and Hughesdale as there is already a rail bridge at Toorak Road and no other crossing until past the River at Madden Grove. Madden Grove will also be interesting as it very close to the River so a trench maybe difficult. Also Burnley station frequently has flooding issues sometime the underpasses are completely flooded.

How does elevated rail compare with underground rail?

The North West metro line in Sydney has an elevated segment between Bella Vista and Tallawong. It’s a pretty impressive piece of engineering – through Bella Vista station the line transitions from underground to elevated over a very short distance, and between Rouse Hill and Tallawong station it curves over the the Schofields Road intersection while also descending to ground level.

A lot has been said about the metro, but never once did I hear anyone mention the aesthetics of elevated rail. This may be because the elevated rail segment runs parallel to (Old) Windsor Road (already not the prettiest thing to look at), and there is a parkland buffer between the viaduct and residential areas. I assume this is not the case for the “Skyrail”?

@ Nimalan, I agree that it doesn’t have a long elevated rail like the ones between Carnegie and Hughesdale.

Given the steep incline in that part of Glenferrie Road, it really only needs to be more of a rail bridge more like the ones at Glenferrie Station & Balaclava Station, and can be designed in a way that aesthetically can fit the atmosphere of the shopping village perhaps with some nice signage or decorative features on the section over the road. I don’t think watching trains pass over it is an eyesore either, it’s really no different than watching trains pass through a level crossing, but less frustrating because they aren’t holding you up!

@ Nicholas agree in some cases elevated rail can be great allows for open space walking tracks. The Elevated rail often works if there are multiple crossings where a trench can divide a community. There will be significant elevanted rail along the new Melbourne Airport link corridor which i support. In Kooyong it quite a narrow corridor and very residential and there are no other crossings between Glenferrie road and the river so a small rail bridge should suffice as Trent says providing it can fit the atmosphere of the shopping village.
@ Trent. Agreed regarding Kooyong, also hoping for Madden Grove to be removed i am surprised Labor was not interested in that either especially in a Key marginal seat contest with the Greens. Do you think a rail bridge is the solution here as well.

One possible way to get the Kooyong Tennis Club on board is to offer them the land under the sky rail, and the tennis club is already bordered by the Monash Overpass.

@Nicholas

True underground rail (i.e tunnelling) is, in the main, very expensive. It’s also not used for something like a level crossing removal, as it has to dip a long way into a tunnel portal.

@Trent

At Balaclava, the railway is actually elevated for a fairly long distance in both directions. The difference is just that it’s on a dirt embankment (being from a much earlier era) rather than a concrete viaduct. Other than that, it’s actually not particularly different to e.g. Carnegie.

I wanna see how John Kennedy as the incumbent goes considering it’s a three way race with Libs and Teal. I personally believe that Kennedy will finish third but narrowly with the teal finishing second. But I don’t believe he’ll drop as bad as Federal Labor Kooyong because Mel’s campaign is more lower level and late and Kennedy is the incumbent!

Labor also seems to be putting in some work to hold this seat, was door knocked today by a group of volunteers!

I see Melissa Lowe at least finishing in the 2CP. If she comes second and the flow of Labor/Greens preferences is larger than the gap between LIB and IND, then she’d win. This all depends on where her votes are coming from i.e. how much of her support is from ex-Liberal voters or ex-Labor voters.

The best that Labor could do here is minimise the number of Labor voters of 2018 swinging back to the Liberals. I don’t see how Labor could retain here. It was always on a knife-edge even before the teal candidate was announced and even before the “teal wave” at the federal election.

This electorate could go anyway, will be fascinating to watch.

I honestly think that Greens preferences will probably decide whether Labor or the teal make the 2CP count because they will be a close 2nd & 3rd on primary votes.

Either could beat Pesutto but it will be very close either way.

In any electorate where the 2PP between Labor and the Liberals is close, an independent who makes it into the 2CP will almost certainly win.

Do we really think Labor will beat Liberals here in a 2CP?

I’m honestly really unsure here and unsure what the levels of anti-lockdown voters are. I personally believe that Greens will preference teals but won’t be surprised if in Hawthorn and Caulfield they preference Labor above the Teals only because of in Hawthorn, a more economically progressive MP than the teal. And in Caulfield a half teal candidate which hasn’t gotten the same level of Climate 200 support.

Personally, I honestly believe that somehow Pessuto will win (unsure my gut is telling me) but can also picture a scenario where Mel wins. I’ve noticed a lot of Monique Ryan’s core volunteer base has gone to the Kew Teal. On my street, I have a John Kennedy Placard (I personally know him) and live in Hawthorn. but across the road there’s a Sophie Kew one? It makes me wonder why they got a Kew placard on hawthorn when there IS A TEAL running in Hawthorn.

Most likely a narrow alp
Retain

With a sitting ALP MP in place it will be a hard task for Melissa Lowe into second place. She will definitely take most of the Greens vote but it would need the Labor vote to fall into the Low 20s and to take a lot of Lib votes for her to be close.

On hypothetical 2CP counts, I think ALP v LIB will be very close and could go either way, but IND v LIB would almost certainly deliver an IND win, because preferences will flow stronger from ALP to IND than the other way around.

However, I agree with Redistributed that it won’t be easy for the IND to move into second place and make that count. It’s much harder to swing ‘strategic’ ALP voters in a seat that the ALP hold than it is in a seat that the ALP are seen to have no chance in (Kooyong, Goldstein).

I do think it is a contest between Labor and the Teal for second place in the primary vote. I expect the Labor primary vote to be significantly down as there is no real base for Labor unlike Caulfield although it will not be like Kooyong or Goldstein and Labor will at a minimum get 21% of the Primary Vote but i do not see at getting above 30%

And even when the Green is excluded it cannot be assumed that all of their preferences will go to Melissa Lowe. In Kooyong, 25% of Greens prefs went to the ALP first and in both Mackellar and Warringah, 30%. This could be enough to keep the ALP in the two horse race. If I was the Libs, I would be more worried about Kew where there is every indication both the ALP and Green vote will tank into single figures.