ALP 22.0%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
North-western Melbourne. Greenvale covers south-eastern parts of the Hume council area, including Attwood, Greenvale, Meadow Heights, Roxburgh Park, Somerton and Westmeadows.
Redistribution
Greenvale is a new seat, primarily replacing the southern half of Yuroke, from which it has taken Attwood, Greenvale, Roxburgh Park and Westmeadows, along with Somerton and Meadow Heights from Broadmeadows.
History
Greenvale was created as a new electorate in 2022, primarily taking in southern parts of the seat of Yuroke.
Yuroke was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Tullamarine. The seat has been a safe Labor seat at both elections since its creation.
The seat was won in 2002 by Liz Beattie. She had previously been Member for Tullamarine for one term, winning it off the Liberal Party in 1999. Beattie was re-elected in 2006 and 2010. Beattie retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Ros Spence, who was re-elected in 2018.
- Mutullah Can Yolbulan (Victorian Socialists)
- Fatma Erciyas (Independent)
- Usman Ghani (Liberal)
- Maria Bengtsson (Family First)
- Cristina Santa-Isabel (Greens)
- Lauren Styles (Freedom Party)
- Iwan Walters (Labor)
- Rosanna Furina (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Greenvale is a very safe Labor seat.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 60.0 |
| Liberal | 24.2 |
| Greens | 7.0 |
| Socialists | 5.0 |
| Independent | 3.8 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 72.0 |
| Liberal | 28.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.9% in the west to 79.4% in the south-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 76.8 | 7,920 | 23.1 |
| South-East | 79.4 | 5,943 | 17.3 |
| West | 63.9 | 5,409 | 15.8 |
| Pre-poll | 70.3 | 10,678 | 31.1 |
| Other votes | 72.8 | 4,377 | 12.8 |
Election results in Greenvale at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
The federal seat of Calwell recorded the largest pro-LNP swing or anti-Labor swing at the federal election. It covers this seat and Broadmeadows. There were double digit swings in Meadow Heights.
Labor will definitely hold this but I wonder how swing it will suffer.
Yet another “political realignment” seat where a very big swing against Labor is possible, but it won’t matter in terms of the outcome. That Meadow Heights booth @Votante? Labor still carried it 68/32.
If you think along the lines that the Liberals won’t win in 2022, the logic of ‘expanding the map for 2026’ does make some sort of sense.
By that logic, they don’t need to win these types of seats, just reduce the margin enough to make Labor worried and cause them to have to fight on a broad front, going into 2026.
@ John, similar to the discussion on the Dandenong thread. The east of the seat in Meadow Heights/Roxburgh Park is some of the most deprived areas of Melbourne and is similar to Dandenong electorate while the West of the seat around Greenvale is a bit like Narre Warren a mixture of growth areas and affluent parts. There is a massive social divide in this seat. Realistically, The Libs should be competitive in Greenvale. However, any swing in Meadow Heights is a protest vote over lockdowns and i don’t think it can be sustained longer term. I dont think there can be a suburb that is any more Labor than Meadow Heights, Doveton, Broadmeadows, Sunshine, Deer Park etc. Kalkallo is a growth area and will always have service delivery challenges so a swing there is not really realignment
Safe alp retain
This seat is now closer for Labor than Ringwood, although I don’t think the Liberals should target this anytime soon.
The biggest swing away from Labor (in an ALP vs LNP contest) was in this seat. ABC says that it’s 15%.
In seats like this one, the primary swing to LIB wasn’t even that significant but there were minor parties like Vic Socialists and Family First that polled very strongly. Here, they got at least 7% of the vote. I suspect that quite a lot of Vic Socialists votes preferenced Liberal both here and in neighbouring seats.
I’m tempted to say that the “put Labor last” campaign resonated but the crash in ALP’s vote also happened at the federal election.
Libs would be better off not targeting this next time. Labor has the advantage of not actually losing the seats in the north and west despite the 10+% swings which means they can more easily reverse the swing in 2026. On the other hand, the smaller margins in Lib heartland means a 10+% swing would cause them to lose a lot of seats like in 2018. Labor is at risk of having to fight two fronts in 2026 and the Libs’ best strategy is to force Labor to waste resources to recover their heartland like how the Libs used a lot of resources to recover their affluent heartland from the teals and then devote their resources into seats like Glen Waverley, Box Hill, Bayswater etc.
The large swing here might have been reinforced by the fact that it’s a new seat and so had no sitting member. Greenvale and Kalkallo were created out of the former electorate of Yuroke, and its sitting MP, Ros Spence, who appears relatively popular, moved to Kalkallo – and suffered a much smaller swing.
@ Dan M,
Interestingly, in Sydenham and Greenvale the liberal primary vote barely increased (only be 1%) even though both seats have well off areas. While in Thomastown/Broadmeadows the Liberal primary vote increased but that is not sustainable longer term.