LIB 1.8%
Incumbent MP
Bridget Vallence, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Evelyn includes the suburbs of Chirnside Park, Coldstream, Gruyere, Lilydale, Wandin North and parts of Mooroolbark, Mount Evelyn and Seville. Almost all of the electorate lies in western parts of Yarra Ranges Shire.
Redistribution
Evelyn’s western boundary changed, with Chirnside Park moved into Warrandyte and Montrose moved from Monbulk into Evelyn. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 2.7% to 1.8%.
Evelyn has existed as an electoral district since 1859. It has been held by the Liberal Party and its conservative predecessors for most elections since the emergence of modern political parties.
Evelyn was held by Ewen Cameron from 1874 to 1914. He held the seat first as a Conservative, and joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party. The Liberal Party’s James Rouget held the seat for one term, but was defeated in 1917 by William Everard, a conservative independent.
Everard held the seat until 1950, representing the Nationals, the United Australia Party and the Liberal Party, and again serving as an independent MP in the 1920s. Everard served as Speaker for one term in the 1930s, and briefly served as a minister in 1945.
Liberal MP Roland Leckie held the seat for one term from 1950 to 1952, losing to the ALP’s Phillip Connell. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 1958 to Russell Stokes of the Liberal Party.
Stokes held the seat for fifteen years, retiring in 1973.
The Liberal Party’s Jim Plowman won Evelyn in 1973. He served as Speaker from 1979 to 1982, and again from 1996 to 1999. He also served as a minister in the first term of the Kennett government. Plowman lost Evelyn in 1982 to the ALP’s Max McDonald. He won Evelyn back in 1985, and held it until his retirement in 1999.
Evelyn was won in 1999 by Christine Fyffe. She lost to the ALP’s Heather McTaggart in 2002, but won Evelyn back in 2006. Fyffe was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Fyffe retired in 2018, and Liberal candidate Bridget Vallence won the seat.
- Jan Heald (Animal Justice)
- Nat De Francesco (Independent)
- Lorna Dent (Labor)
- Rosalie De Francesco (Independent)
- Bridget Vallence (Liberal)
- Jeanette Dobson (Family First)
- Andrew Henley (Greens)
Assessment
Evelyn is very marginal but you’d expect Vallence to have a boost as the sitting member.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bridget Vallence | Liberal | 18,566 | 49.5 | -4.0 | 48.1 |
| Gail Ritchie | Labor | 15,166 | 40.4 | +8.2 | 40.7 |
| Brodie Everist | Greens | 3,786 | 10.1 | +3.4 | 10.0 |
| Others | 1.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,311 | 5.8 | +0.1 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bridget Vallence | Liberal | 19,753 | 52.7 | -6.9 | 51.8 |
| Gail Ritchie | Labor | 17,765 | 47.4 | +6.9 | 48.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east, and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas on election day, with 52% in the centre and 52.2% in the west. The Liberal Party won 53.6% in the east. The Liberal Party won the seat thanks to a strong result in the special votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the centre to 9.5% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.9 | 48.0 | 7,964 | 18.6 |
| East | 9.5 | 53.6 | 7,420 | 17.4 |
| West | 9.2 | 47.8 | 5,692 | 13.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.2 | 54.2 | 14,072 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 51.2 | 7,556 | 17.7 |
Election results in Evelyn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Another electorate where the LNP could hold onto
Agree Bob, I believe Evelyn overlaps with the federal seat of Casey where the Liberals held on despite the retirement of long serving MP Tony Smith. This is also considered outer suburban territory being on the very edge of the Melbourne metropolitan area, thus making it a conservative leaning district.
Was out this way yesterday. The Liberal campaign is very visible (big advertising billboards, not just the usual yard signs) – they’re clearly putting a lot of resources into this seat. The fact that they’re putting a lot of resources into a seat they already hold may tell you something about what their polling is telling them.
I didn’t realise the margin here was only 1.8%.
It’s obviously a region that should be a Liberal retain but if they really continue to tank, this could be a surprise loss on the night.
Would expect as a possible alp.win
I’d expect this sear to be retained by the Liberals with a swing towards them.
Also expect a Liberal retain, this was one of the few areas that was relatively ok for the Libs in May.
If the Liberals didn’t lose this in 2018, hard to see them losing it in 2022.
Also factor in the sophomore surge for Vallence.
The Liberals have announced a plan to duplicate the Lilydale line with a new infill station at the Kinley estate. This is very much welcome. I would also hope they duplicate the Belgrave line between FTG and UFTG.
It will be good for Labor to match this commitment and not just focus on removing level crossing as duplicating single track will also allow for “more trains, more often”.
https://www.bridgetvallence.com.au/news/liberals-to-kickstart-lilydale-rail-duplication
At the federal election the only booth Labor won that falls into this seat is the Mooroolbark one where they got 56.1% with a 6.7% swing to them.
@ North east agree very likely liberal retain. Only point I would make is that while this outer suburban it is settled area rather than a growth area like Pakenham/Cranbourne etc so I don’t feel it will have a lot of antilockdown sentiment etc.
@Nimalan Fair point but it might not necessarily just be growth outer suburban areas that have anti-lockdown sentiment, especially if there wasn’t a lot of cases around the area. I think Vallence made some posts during the pandemic about her seat been locked down despite the lack of cases.
@ North East, Good pick up it maybe similar to the case in the Mornington Peninsula where there was opposition to considered metro Melbourne. this would also apply to parts of Yarra Ranges Shire which are quite rural. the reason I used growth areas is that will a larger % of young children so homeschooling etc would be a challenge
Still $1.20 odds on the Libs in this seat. Free money.
@Nimilan Good point i didn’t think of the home schooling during COVID aspect.
Line ball. Alp can win
Like Eildon & Bayswater another popular local member who has built a personal vote.