Euroa – Victoria 2022

Nat hold unless Priestly runs.

Why would he run here? He is Shepparton based? The main population centres here are Benalla (Indi) and Kilmore (McEwen). The only big town in Nicholls is Seymour.

Because Shepparton already has an independent, so if the “voices” for the regions independents want to expand they will need to target these seats. Priestly has name recognition in this region so he could pose a serious threat to the nationals.

Benambra is gone for the Liberals. Expect a regional rout for the coalition to conservative independents this November. The only safe regional seats I see staying with the Nats are the Gippsland seats.

@Daniel is there any evidence of an independent movement gearing up for the state election in this seat or are you just assuming that the state election will precisely mirror the federal one?

If Benambra is “gone” for the Liberals, who is going to win it? Where is the Benambra independent movement? The Libs haven’t had any trouble holding it whilst Indi has been comfortably independent.

more importantly, Priestly is also stepping away from politics for the time being, but even then, there’s literally no reason why he’d run in Euroa when Shepp isn’t even close to being in the district.

@Entrepreneur There’s a lot of overly optimistic Dan Fans on this site. I wouldn’t read too much into it. VIC Labor are almost certainly having a swing against them and losing a few seats, especially now with a federal Labor government and the swings against Labor in the north west and regions.

Steph Ryan has announced her resignation at the next state election.

I’m surprised about her retirement considering she’s 36 and only been in parliament for 8 years. I guess her reasons for having another child on the way and wanting to spend time with family make sense.

To her credit, it seems Ryan is smart enough to sniff which way the wind is blowing and realised that running for re-election would mean another 4 years in opposition – which in her case would mean 12 years of her life in a position of irrelevance. Makes sense to say no thanks and focus on something more meaningful like family instead, especially since Ryan was never a ‘natural’ Nat. It’ll be interesting to see whether she stays based in Euroa or lives in Brunswick full-time.

Isn’t Ryan’s husband in the ALP?

Libs will contest this seat in 2022, in 2014 it was a close contest between the Libs and the Nats. Interesting to see if the Libs win this seat off the Nats.
If Labor drops into 3rd place (they were ~2% off in 2014) who does Labor preference higher usually, Libs or Nats?
The 2018 (2022 slighly less so) boundaries at the southern end are surprisingly close to the urban fringe of Melbourne for a Nats seat too.

Ham
Labor usually preferences against the incumbent in a Coalition-held three cornered contest, or put another way, whatever will create the most hardship for the Coalition.

@Entrepenuer What do you mean she isn’t a natural Nat. Also is she originally from Brunswick or living in Brunswick or has a residence in Brunswick.

@North East – Ryan’s political views would fit in easily with the Brunswick branch of the ALP or Greens, there’s nothing conservative about her outlook.

@Entrepenuer I highly doubt that she would fit in and i think Ryan and both the Brunswick ALP and Greens would take issue with that assessment. Ryan’s social views or outlook may be more progressive than yours but it doesn’t mean she’s automatically at the other end of the political spectrum. Also Ryan been more socially progressive than some peers in her party doesn’t automatically mean she doesn’t fit in with the party and doesn’t mean she would be more suited for a different party. I don’t want to disrespect anyone’s political views or disregard their opinions but @Entrepenuer it seems that you seem to be pretty right-wing and/or socially conservative to the point that anything or anyone to the left or more socially progressive than you is lumped together as left-wing, regardless of whether they’re slightly to the left of you or way further to the left of you.

@North East that’s a bold conclusion there, I’m not saying she’d fit in with Socialist Alternative but precisely what conventional National Party values does she represent?

@Entrepenuer Well one would assume that Ryan would identify with National party values, at least in an economic sense considering she was deputy leader of the party. As for Ryan’s personal beliefs, she was deputy leader so it’s likely that her views/values are reflected in the National parties current policies.
It ALso depends what you believe the National party values are.

That’s like saying Malcolm Turnbull resonates with the average Liberal member because he was allowed to hijack the federal leadership

Entrepreneur, I would argue whilst Malcolm Turnbull didn’t have conservative credentials, he was a good fit for the local area which is now trending against the aspects of social conservatism you refer to.

I believe the problem now is that the Coalition is trying to appeal to two different ends of the spectrum – rural areas which support the social conservatism aspects like less regulation on climate change vs the affluent urban communities which are more socially progressive

I believe Turnbull probably did resonate with local Liberal (branch) members but not branch members outside the inner city who were more aligned to the politics of Morrison or Dutton.

@Entrepenuer The SSM vote shows Malcom Turnbull’s social views probably did resonate with a lot of Lib voters. Lib members on average across the country are probably more socially conservative but they don’t make up majority of Lib voters and Turnbull’s views were probably popular within his local branch.

This could very well be a Liberal gain from National.

If Daniel Andrews is seen to do a good job dealing with the flooding situation it could really seal his election victory. He has certainly been a premier who is seen as a ‘strong leader’ during crisis. Evidently during Covid, but also he was seen to react well to the black summer bushfires in East Gippsland.

What happened here? Why a 4-5% swing to Labor? This is a regional seat. And Labors vote went down in every other seat in regional regions except for a couple which had 20% margins but they weren’t gonna swing further anyway. Sitting member retired or not, it seems odd.

I thought the CFA dispute would have helped thr conservatives. It still isn’t exactly off regional voters minds.

I don’t think it’s that uncommon when there’s a three cornered contest, that there’s a bit of leakage between the Libs and Nats, compared to when there’s only one candidate.

e.g. soft-Labor supporters who may be willing to vote Nats but not Libs, or soft Liberal supporters who will vote Labor over Nats, etc.

There may also may have been a mistake in the counting at the Euroa booth in 2018. The candidate recheck and the excel download do not align by some 250 votes. The 2 party for Euroa was 85:15 based in a high Nat vote – and on that basis there was a swing of over 20% at the Euroa booth alone. That might account for some.

Agree with Mark Mulcair that Nat/ Lib leakage would also account for some – high candidate numbers would also lead to more leakage. The Nats running in Bass probably gave the seat to Labor.

Daniel, also Euroa was an open seat with popular, moderate incumbent MP Steph Ryan retiring. Open seats generally see a swing against the incumbent party, especially if it is a popular incumbent departing.

The new National candidate may not have had as much profile compared to Steph who was the deputy Leader of the state party.

Also, to add the Mitchell Shire component is more peri-urban than regional and a lot of the townships there can be won by Labor in good elections.