Incumbent MLCs
- Melina Bath (Nationals), since 2015
- Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2014
- Cathrine Burnett-Wake (Liberal), since 20211
- Tom McIntosh (Labor), since 20222
- Harriet Shing (Labor), since 2014
1Cathrine Burnett-Wake replaced Edward O’Donohue in December 2021 following O’Donohue’s resignation.
2Tom McIntosh replaced Jane Garrett in August 2022 after Garrett’s death
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- 2018 result
- Preference flows
- Candidates
- Assessment
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Bass | LIB 0.7% | Hastings | ALP 0.4% | Narracan | LIB 11.0% |
| Evelyn | LIB 1.6% | Monbulk | ALP 9.0% | Nepean | ALP 0.6% |
| Gippsland East | NAT 17.6% | Mornington | LIB 5.0% | Pakenham | ALP 2.0% |
| Gippsland South | NAT 13.7% | Morwell | ALP 1.1% vs IND |
Eastern Victoria covers regional and rural areas to the east of Melbourne all the way to Gippsland, as well as some seats on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne.
Five out of eleven seats are held by Labor. Four seats are held by the Liberal Party, while two are held by the Nationals.
Five seats cover areas well away from Melbourne: Morwell and Narracan in the Latrobe Valley, Gippsland East and Gippsland South in the Gippsland area, and Bass on the eastern side of Western Port.
The electorates of Hastings, Mornington and Nepean all cover areas on the Mornington Peninsula at the south-eastern edge of the Melbourne urban area. Evelyn, Monbulk and Pakenham cover semi-urban areas on the eastern fringe of Melbourne.
Redistribution
The Eastern Victoria region contracted on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne, losing Berwick, Beaconsfield, Beaconsfield Upper and Guys Hill to South Eastern Metropolitan.
This was due to the splitting of Gembrook into two electorates: Berwick and Pakenham. Berwick was placed in the neighbouring South Eastern Metropolitan region.
There were no significant changes to the border with Northern Victoria, while changes to the border with the North Eastern Metropolitan region were minor.
History
The Eastern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
Eastern Victoria produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 election – two Liberal, two Labor and one National.
The Liberal Party lost one of their two seats in 2014, with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning a seat.
2018 was a status quo result, with Labor holding their two seats, while the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers each retained one seat.
| 2018 election | Redistribution | |||||
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota | % | Quota |
| Liberal/Nationals | 159,520 | 34.1 | -7.5 | 2.047 | 33.9 | 2.032 |
| Labor | 157,020 | 33.6 | +4.6 | 2.015 | 33.5 | 2.007 |
| Greens | 31,467 | 6.7 | -1.8 | 0.404 | 6.9 | 0.412 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 23,409 | 5.0 | +2.6 | 0.300 | 5.1 | 0.308 |
| Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 20,925 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 0.268 | 4.5 | 0.272 |
| Liberal Democrats | 18,856 | 4.0 | -0.7 | 0.242 | 4.0 | 0.238 |
| Animal Justice | 15,095 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 0.194 | 3.3 | 0.196 |
| Democratic Labour | 7,067 | 1.5 | +0.8 | 0.091 | 1.5 | 0.090 |
| Voluntary Euthanasia | 6,222 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 0.080 | 1.4 | 0.082 |
| Aussie Battler | 5,685 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.073 | 1.2 | 0.074 |
| Sustainable Australia | 4,092 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.053 | 0.9 | 0.054 |
| Health Australia | 4,155 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.053 | 0.9 | 0.053 |
| Reason | 3,806 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.049 | 0.8 | 0.049 |
| Country Party | 3,182 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.041 | 0.7 | 0.042 |
| Transport Matters | 2,622 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.034 | 0.6 | 0.033 |
| Liberty Alliance | 2,652 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.034 | 0.6 | 0.033 |
| Others | 1,836 | 0.4 | 0.024 | 0.4 | 0.024 | |
| Informal | 18,419 | 3.8 | 3.8 | |||
Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal/National team and Labor each retained two seats.
Let’s fast-forward until there were nine candidates running for the last seat:
- Tom Cummings (GRN) – 0.424 quotas
- Jeff Bourman (SFF) – 0.354
- Rhonda Crooks (DHJ) – 0.281
- Ben Buckley (LDP) – 0.246
- Leah Folloni (AJP) – 0.203
- Vern Hughes (ABP) – 0.192
- Padraig O’Hea (DLP) – 0.119
- Michelle Hain (VEP) – 0.093
- Reade Smith (SUS) – 0.061
Sustainable Australia preferences mostly favoured the DLP:
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.427
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.355
- Crooks (DHJ) – 0.283
- Buckley (LDP) – 0.247
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.205
- Hughes (ABP) – 0.193
- O’Hea (DLP) – 0.163
- Hain (VEP) – 0.094
Voluntary Euthanasia preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers:
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.428
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.440
- Crooks (DHJ) – 0.284
- Buckley (LDP) – 0.248
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.206
- Hughes (ABP) – 0.194
- O’Hea (DLP) – 0.163
DLP preferences split. The DLP’s primary vote, which was barely over half of the total pile at this point, flowed to the Animal Justice Party, while most of the remainder flowed to the Aussie Battler Party. This pushed Animal Justice ahead of two others but wasn’t enough to keep Hughes in the race.
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.442
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.432
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.308
- Crooks (DHJ) – 0.287
- Buckley (LDP) – 0.249
- Hughes (ABP) – 0.237
ABP preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, with some others going to Animal Justice:
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.621
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.433
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.358
- Crooks (DHJ) – 0.290
- Buckley (LDP) – 0.249
The Liberal Democrats had barely accumulated any preferences, and most of their preferences flowed to the Shooters:
- Bourman (SFF) – 0.853
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.435
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.360
- Crooks (DHJ) – 0.293
Preferences from Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party flowed almost entirely to the Shooters, electing Bourman to the final seat:
- Bourman (SFF) – 1.104
- Cummings (GRN) – 0.437
- Folloni (AJP) – 0.363
- A – Richard Mann (Victorian Socialists)
- B – Ruth Stanfield (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- C – Liberal/Nationals
- Renee Heath (Liberal)
- Melina Bath (Nationals)
- David Burgess (Liberal)
- Sharn Coombes (Liberal)
- Mick Harrington (Nationals)
- D – Shane Casey (Angry Victorians)
- E – Greg Hansford (Freedom Party)
- F – Dean Barnes (Reason)
- G – Philip Semmel (Democratic Labour)
- H – Kristy Michelle Wallace (Health Australia)
- I – Srilakshmi Ajjampura (New Democrats)
- J – Warren Pickering (One Nation)
- K – Milton Wilde (Family First)
- L – Rob McCathie (Liberal Democrats)
- M – Mat Morgan (Greens)
- N – Thomas Forrest (Legalise Cannabis)
- O – Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- P – James William Unkles (United Australia)
- Q – Austin Cram (Animal Justice)
- R – Sophie Paterson (Sustainable Australia)
- S – John Hutchison (Companions and Pets)
- T – Labor
- Tom McIntosh
- Harriet Shing
- Amie Templar-Kanshlo
- Jannette Langley
- Marg D’Arcy
- U – Ralf Troshen (Transport Matters)
- V – Cengiz Coskun (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
- Ungrouped
-
- John O’Brien (Independent)
-
Assessment
This region is one of the more conservative in the state. It seems likely that the Coalition and Labor will each retain two seats here, with the last seat probably going to a small party. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are not a micro-party, polling 5% across the region (slightly improved with the redistribution making the region slightly less urban). They would be the frontrunners for the seat if they can ensure good preference flows from other minor parties.
Regional breakdown
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Eastern Victoria. This ticket topped the primary vote in six out of eleven districts in the region.
The Liberal/National vote was highest in Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Narracan and Mornington. It was lowest in Morwell and Monbulk.
Labor topped the poll in five seats, with Labor’s primary vote highest in Morwell and Pakenham. The Greens did particularly well in Monbulk.
Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region
Cathrine Burnett-Wake lost Liberal preselection after only being an upper house MP for 8 months.
Some very socially conservative liberal candidates have been preselected in a number of Liberal seats in the last few weeks, including Renee Heath for the #1 spot in Eastern Victoria, a campaigner against the banning of gay conversion therapy.
Vic Libs seem to choose more conservative candidates despite their claims on trying to moderate the party
– Renee Heath (links to conservative church and supports conversion therapy)
– Moria Deeming (Anti-vax, Anti-Abortion, anti-transgender, and anti-safe schools)
– Evan Mulholland (IPA Liberterian, anti-climate action)
Think there are more IPA allumi in liberal party ranks?
All of them are in 1st position on the ticket too, meaning guaranteed election. So much for trying to keep the party electable and not drifting further to the right. I believe the party still hasn’t recovered from the vicious religious right branch stacking by Bastiaan and Sukkar.
Some options:
•Most likely
ALP and Lib/Nats 3
Minor parties 2
•Next likely
ALP and Lib/Nats 4
Minor parties 1
•Outside chance
ALP and Lib/Nats 2
Minor parties 3
The traditional Liberal Party candidate disendorsement season has begun!!
Matthew Guy is pretending that he had no idea what shenanigans go in on the Heaths’ church until the media inconveniently started telling everyone. Which might be plausible except that everyone’s been yelling about it for months.
So thanks to the Libs, we’ve now got a fundamentalist independent incoming. Although seeing as she’ll vote with the Libs on everything anyway, maybe that was the plan all along.
Actually she isn’t guaranteed to win. The controversy in my view will cause mass number of traditional Liberal voters to cast their vote for the Nationals here and they may still number the other Liberal candidates but they won’t give their vote to the candidate preselected at the top.
If there is an election where the Liberals win no seats in this region, it will be this one for this reason.
Oh, it’s definitely possible in theory – but seeing as the Libs/Nats still share the same ATL box, and all the other right-wing parties are already preferencing them on their pre-lodged sheets, I can’t exactly see enough Liberal voters going below the line to avoid her for it to make a skerrick of difference.
I doubt there’d be a huge shift to Below-the-line voting. Some small-l liberal voters may be turned off from the LNP altogether because of the controversy. It reflects badly on the Liberal brand.
I still see Renee Heath winning a seat as the number 1 spot-holder on the group ticket.
Well so much for the state Libs trying to show that they’ve changed. The fact that someone like Renee Heath even can get preselected on the number 1 position just says it all.
I’m glad I don’t have to vote in this election, because no matter how I would vote, I would feel bad about it.
If I happen to be in Victoria in 2026, and Pesutto is Liberal leader, it could well be the first time in my life I put the Liberals over Labor.
But I know this – I won’t be able to bring myself to do it if this far-right infiltration of the Liberal Party is still present.
@ Nicholas, what about voting Teal if you had lived in Caulfield or Kew in 2022
@Nimalan
I absolutely would, and I would hope that the Teal would be in the 2CP so my major party preferences wouldn’t matter! And then there’s the Legislative Council ballot…
Disendorsing your top candidate on an upper house ticket. LOL. The Libs are just hopeless. Shows how weak and gutless they are for following the trend of Christophobic attacks on Christian candidates.
If you’re going to run for a political party, you had better align with that party’s views, and you certainly had better not be affiliated with efforts to change that party from the inside.
To claim that these disendorsements have anything to do with intolerance is in the mould of a charge I’d expect to hear from the woke left.
Honestly, I just hope Pesutto wins. The liberal party needs more candidates of his persuasion.
So did Heath win or not? I see 1 Lib on Pollbludger but nobody seems brave enough to name who it is.
Either way. If she is in the parliament and Pesutto seats her in his caucus that could cost them crucial support at the next election. I understand he wants to unite the “broad church” but most moderates don’t want “far right evangelicals” part of a government. They see them as a replica of Trump and his allies and after the disastrous politics we saw in the USA. I think voters will be more wary here.
Let Tim Smith and other folks start a new minor party if they wish to. It won’t affect the Liberals chances of winning because Victoria has CPV, so their preferences would never flow to Labor.
It is a fatal mistake seating Trump-like conservatives in the Liberal party caucus. The people of Victoria are hurting because of the lack of opposition in the state. I think at this point the Liberal party of Victoria need a Tony Blair to win an election.
I only stated I believed the Liberals will win the next state election because of I expect the economy to worsen by 2026 and a recession in between (Cain-Kirner lost after recession) and I expect voter fatigue after 12 years, you also have to factor in the Liberals will be more serious this time about changing. Because Pesutto is seen as a more moderate figure, and is seen as someone who could appeal to more progressive voters.
Of course Heath won, she was the number 1 listed in the Lib/Nats column.
Basically automatic.
Why do Liberal voters not care/not pay attention to who the party runs? Are they just “Vote liberal no matter who it is”?
I csnt imagine any decent conservative woukd be proud to vote for her.
To *not* vote for Renee Heath would have required people to vote below the line en masse, and in a targeted fashion. Not just the Lib voters, but Everyone, as any and every ATL vote will at some point go to her above the rest of the coalition candidates.
It simply does not happen in practice, other than very occasionally in Tasmania when a local-favourite candidate has been demoted down the ticket.
Agree expat for upper house contests, many voters (including myself) just vote by party. I dont really care who a party runs as its candidates, I just want a certain party or groups to win seats
Being a lead candidate for a major party ticket pretty much guarantees your spot in the upper house because voters will vote for your party, rather than because of you.
When you’re running for the lower house, it’s a different story. Because it’s the first ballot paper voters fill, name recognition is more important. Also, volunteers will campaign and align themselves based on the candidate’s favourability.