ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
David Southwick, since 2010.
Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Caulfield covers the suburbs of Balaclava, Caulfield, Elsternwick, Gardenvale, Glenhuntly and Ripponlea and parts of the suburbs of Ormond, St Kilda and St Kilda East. Caulfield covers northwestern parts of the City of Glen Eira and small parts of the City of Port Phillip to the east of St Kilda.
Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Caulfield’s north-western corner, gaining part of St Kilda East from Prahran and losing a smaller area to Prahran. These changes flipped the seat from a very slim Liberal margin to a very slim Labor margin.
History
Caulfield was first created in 1927. In that time it has never been won by the ALP, and has always been won by conservative candidates, except one election when the seat was won by an independent socialist, in 1943.
The seat was first won in 1927 by the Liberal Party’s Frederick Forrest. He was re-elected in 1929, but died in office in October 1930.
The ensuing by-election was won by Harold Luxton. He held the seat for two terms, retiring in 1935. He was replaced in 1935 by Harold Cohen. He had been an MLC representing Melbourne South since 1929, and held Caulfield until 1943.
In 1943, Cohen was defeated by Andrew Hughes, an independent socialist candidate. Hughes only held the seat for one term, losing to the Liberal Party’s Alexander Dennett.
Dennett ran as a candidate for the Electoral Reform party in 1955, and lost his seat to the Liberal Party’s Joseph Rafferty. Rafferty moved to the seat of Caulfield in 1958, which he held until 1967, when he moved again to Glenhuntly, which he held until his retirement in 1979.
In 1958, Caulfield was won by Alexander Fraser. He had previously held the seat of Grant from 1950 until his defeat in 1952, and then Caulfield East from 1955 to 1958. Fraser held the seat until his death in 1965.
The 1965 by-election was won by Ian McLaren. He had previously held the seat of Glen Iris for one term from 1945 to 1947. After one term in Caulfield, he moved to Bennettswood in 1967 and held it until his retirement in 1979.
In 1967, Caulfield was won by Edgar Tanner, who had previously been the Liberal Member for Ripponlea since 1955. He held Caulfield until his retirement in 1976.
Charles Francis won Caulfield in 1976. The next year he was expelled from the Liberal Party after abstaining on a no-confidence motion against the Liberal government, and he lost his seat in 1979 to Ted Turner, son of the former member.
The younger Turner served as a shadow minister in the 1980s and as Government Whip in the first term of the Kennett government, retiring at the 1996 election.
Caulfield was won in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Helen Shardey. Helen Shardey was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and served on the frontbench when the Liberal Party was in opposition.
Shardey retired in 2010, and Caulfield was won by Liberal candidate David Southwick. Southwick was re-elected in 2014 and 2018.
- Nomi Kaltmann (Independent)
- Lynne Edwell (Family First)
- Rachel Iampolski (Greens)
- Asher Myerson (Animal Justice)
- David Southwick (Liberal)
- Lior Harel (Labor)
- Michael Abelman (Liberal Democrats)
Assessment
Caulfield is a very marginal seat. The Liberal Party usually has a stronger hold on the seat but it has rarely been particularly safe over the last few decades. Most likely the Liberal Party will retain this seat but if Labor has a good night they could win here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Southwick | Liberal | 17,861 | 46.9 | -4.8 | 46.1 |
| Sorina Grasso | Labor | 13,054 | 34.2 | +4.5 | 34.0 |
| Dinesh Mathew | Greens | 5,387 | 14.1 | -2.2 | 14.8 |
| Troy Evans | Animal Justice | 1,153 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 3.0 |
| Aviya Bavati | Sustainable Australia | 665 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Others | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 1,735 | 4.4 | +0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Southwick | Liberal | 19,162 | 50.3 | -4.6 | 50.1 |
| Sorina Grasso | Labor | 18,958 | 49.7 | +4.6 | 49.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas on election day, ranging from 53.9% in the east to 57.8% in the north-west. About 60% of the vote was cast through other categories of the vote, and the Liberal Party won those votes sufficiently to hold on to the seat.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.7% in the east to 18.2% in the north-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 18.2 | 42.2 | 6,664 | 16.6 |
| South-West | 14.4 | 42.9 | 4,285 | 10.7 |
| East | 10.7 | 46.1 | 4,209 | 10.5 |
| Pre-poll | 14.0 | 54.4 | 13,186 | 32.9 |
| Other votes | 15.4 | 53.9 | 11,711 | 29.2 |
Election results in Caulfield at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Alternate history, If Labor had won Caulfield, Sandringham and Brighton at the 2018 state election, which seats do you guys think would have been held for them this time? Would they all have gone back Liberal or would Labor have held some of them?
I think Caulfield messes up the ABC election night predictions algorithms where they predict Labor win on election night but then the Jewish voting early due to Shabbat ensures Libs win the next day.
This happened in 2018 and 2022
@ marh
You are 100÷ correct. this is why you can’t look at booth results to see how Jews vote. some fools including on tallyroom have pointed out that the Greens do well in Caulfield booths so they must have strong support in the Jewish community which they will now loose which just ridiculous.
Totally agree Nimalan. The vast majority do not vote on election day so the booth results are meaningless to assess the Jewish vote, in fact they make a good snapshot of the non-Jewish voting patterns in Caulfield.
@Daniel T I think they would’ve regained them if they lost them.
@Marh that happened in NSW too. On election night a bunch of people said Labor won Holsworthy, Ryde and Terrigal yet they were put back in doubt later on the night but then when early votes and postal votes came in the Liberals won them all. Ryde was recounted but still won by the Liberals by 54 votes. Yet I knew they had won those seats even before the ABC called them because I know that early votes and postals can have a big effect and recent elections have seen lots of voters (especially in urban areas) vote early.
I think Labor would have possibly won Caulfield in 2022 if it wasn’t for the “teal” who most likely cut into the Labor candidate’s vote and leaked preferences back to Southwick, by giving disillusioned Liberal voters an alternative to put #1 without having to vote Labor.
There was probably a slight factor of that in Brighton too but nowhere near enough to wipe out the 5%+ margin there.
The Libs were on 46.8 at the 4CP. The Libs at that stage needed only 13% of preferences to win, so I think they were easily winning that regardless of if a Teal ran or not. As the Vic election seemed to be a bit of a trend of the Libs improving their vote in richer seats (Hawthorn, Kew, Malvern, Sandringham, Brighton and Nepean). It was middle to upper-middle class areas where they really struggled.
I think David Southwick has a bit of a personal vote. This is an area that Libs always outperform on a state level to federal.
@Drake – Kew recorded a 5.0% swing against the Liberals on FP, and a 0.7% swing against the Liberals on the 2PP. There was no improvement of the vote whatsoever.