Bentleigh – Victoria 2022

ALP 11.4%

Incumbent MP
Nick Staikos, since 2014.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Bentleigh covers the suburbs of Bentleigh, Bentleigh East, Brighton East, Cheltenham, McKibbin and Moorabbin. Most of the electorate is contained in southern parts of the City of Glen Eira, as well as a small part of the Kingston council area.

Redistribution
Bentleigh lost Hampton East to Brighton and Sandringham, while gaining Cheltenham from Clarinda and Sandringham, and gaining the remainder of Bentleigh East from Clarinda. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 11.9% to 11.4%.

History
Bentleigh was first created prior to the 1967 election. In thirteen elections, Bentleigh has been won by the party that formed government eleven times.

Bentleigh was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Bob Suggett, who had previously held the seat of Moorabbin since 1955. He held the seat until his defeat in 1979 by the ALP’s Gordon Hockley.

Hockley was re-elected in 1982 and 1985, and retired in 1988, when he was succeeded by the ALP’s Ann Barker.

Barker held the seat for only one term, losing Bentleigh in 1992 to the Liberal Party’s Inga Peulich. Peulich held Bentleigh for three terms, losing her seat in 2002. She later won a Legislative Council seat in the South Eastern Metropolitan region in 2006.

Bentleigh was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Rob Hudson, who had previously been an advisor to Deputy Prime Minister Brian Howe and Premier Steve Bracks.

Hudson was re-elected in 2006, and lost his seat in 2010 to Liberal candidate Elizabeth Miller. Miller served one term, losing in 2014 to Labor’s Nick Staikos. Staikos was re-elected in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Bentleigh was a very marginal seat before a large swing to Labor in south-eastern Melbourne built up the margin here. The seat will likely stay with Labor but the seat is not as safe as the margin suggests.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nick Staikos Labor 18,443 50.2 +11.6 49.4
Asher Judah Liberal 12,232 33.3 -12.6 33.6
Sarah Dekiere Greens 2,763 7.5 -3.1 8.2
Naren Chellappah Animal Justice 709 1.9 +1.9 1.7
Oscar Lobo Independent 752 2.0 +2.1 1.6
Ellie Jean Sullivan Derryn Hinch’s Justice 572 1.6 +1.6 1.2
Fi Fraser Democratic Labour 412 1.1 +1.1 1.1
Dave Stott Reason 452 1.2 -0.7 1.0
Hans Verzijl Sustainable Australia 312 0.8 +0.9 0.8
George Mavroyeni Independent 92 0.3 +0.3 0.2
Others 1.3
Informal 2,408 6.2 +0.9

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nick Staikos Labor 22,811 61.9 +11.3 61.4
Asher Judah Liberal 14,031 38.1 -11.3 38.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.6% in the south-west to 64.7% in the north.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 64.7 10,766 25.4
South-East 64.0 8,661 20.4
South-West 63.6 3,871 9.1
Pre-poll 58.7 12,505 29.5
Other votes 56.0 6,554 15.5

Election results in Bentleigh at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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13 COMMENTS

  1. The Libs would want to make a dint in the margin here so it’s gettable in 2026, the same can be said for Mordialloc, Carrum, Frankston, Monbulk, Cranbourne, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Eltham and Ivanhoe.

  2. Given the Liberals’ apparent change of direction moving forward, I think Carrum & Frankston (and to a lesser extent Mordialloc) will be the traditional “sandbelt” marginals they still need to target and will probably get some positive swings to cut the double digit margins back to be competitive in 2026, but I don’t think the needle will move too much in Bentleigh. Nick Staikos seems to be a pretty popular local member too. I think the margin will probably remain around 10% here.

    I see the Liberals’ 2026 path being in seats like Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Cranbourne, Carrum & Frankston as you say (in addition to the eastern corridor); whereas I think seats like Prahran & Bentleigh which they won in 2010 and Albert Park which they had their eye on for some time, will become further out of reach.

  3. The Liberals have no chance of winning back the sandbelt, Frankston line seats this election, which they still need to form government. Labor is $1.02 favourites to retain this. That would be almost unthinkable odds at any previous election.

  4. Whats interesting is on the ABC’s key election seat none of the 4 sand belt electorates are on there this time around.

  5. I believe Sportsbet is paying way too much for the Liberals to win the sandbelt seats. I’ve placed small bets on the Liberals to win Bentleigh, Carrum, Frankston, and Mordialloc. Currently, Sportsbet is paying $12 for the Liberals to win Bentleigh. That’s an implied probability of 8%. I’d say the probability is closer to 20%.

  6. I’d say it’s because most people have written off the sandbelt for the Libs. If the Libs can’t win seats like Box Hill or Ringwood or Ashwood, there’s no way they would win the sand belt seats. Though of course they would need to win the sandbelt for Matthew Guy to be premier so Lib victories in the sandbelt mean a shock defeat for Dan Andrews.

  7. Frankston and Carrum they could be a long shot in on a good night.

    Mordialloc not so much and Bentleigh I don’t think they have a chance. It’s more the demographic rapidly shifting away from the Liberals.

  8. Agree, this is not going to be won until they are actually in a position to form government. I think the Libs feel they have another part to victory which goes through Melton, Point Cook, Yan Yean, Pakenham, Werribee, Hastings and Nepean. Fun Fact, Bentleigh is the most homogenous electorate in the state with no clear pattern in the booths.

  9. nimalan
    Whilst the 2PP figure is very uniform, in line with the geography, the underlying primary votes exhibit a wide range. The greens primary shows a spread of 2.5 times. Hinch has a fivefold spread from worst to best booths. Reason shows a fourfold spread. The other minor parties average about a threefold spread. The same patterns which apply outside this electorate, apply within. They tended to cancel one another out, when aggregated, inside of the old Bentleigh, facilitated by the fairly featureless geography, with street grids arranged ‘on the square’.
    Which universal voting pattern, save for those dictated by geographical features, do you say doesn’t apply in Bentleigh?

  10. Phil, Good point about primary vote. i did not look at that only 2PP. The reason i pointed out is that Ben did an excellent post for the Federal election to measure the variance between electorates. Link below https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47453
    If this was done for the state election i am pretty sure Bentleigh will come out as having the least variance between booths. It maybe the case that Monbulk (Narre Warren East versus The Patch) or Polwarth (Airrens Inlet versus Warrion) may have the biggest variance. I havnt tested this and i am happy to be corrected. https://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/guide/bent.htm. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/bent/?nw=0. It is has been pointed out by Antony Green as well. The spread is almost always 5% with nearly all other electorates i can predict which will be the strongest and weakest booth for the major parties prior to the election but i cannot ever do that for Bentleigh. If these is a more uniform spread in another seat let me know. I am not saying any universal voting patten does not apply. I am interested in your thoughts. Is there class or ethnic differences between different booths etc in this seat It maybe just featureless geography as you say.

  11. @ Phil, Good point about primary vote i only looked at 2PP i am not saying that a universal voting pattern does not apply here i actually dont know the reason here. Election after election the variance tends to be around 5% in 2PP. Also in most other seats i can state which will be the strongest and weakest booths for each party. I cannot state that for Bentleigh. Let me know if there is a another seat that you feel is very uniform in 2PP.

  12. Thank you Nimalan,
    No, I that the STAIKOS’ Bentleigh shape will continue to hold that record; The 2022 edition of Bentleigh will probably show a wider spread, due to the boundary’s retraction from Hampton East, back across the Nepean Highway, & resumption of the bi-truncated Special Triangle shape of HUDSON & MILLER.
    I doubt that there is another seat that fulfills a test;-
    Bentleigh day-booths were unable to break out of a five point range, yet a short stroll in any direction into a neighbouring seat will yield a booth outside that range, [with the favoured movement shown]
    Namely OAKLEIGH Hughesdale – Labour,
    CLARINDA Cheltenham North – Liberal [borderline]
    BRIGHTON Landcox – Liberal
    SANDRINGHAM Hampton, Hampton Central – Liberal
    CAULFIELD GlenHuntly East – Labour, Caulfield Sth., Clarence, Bundeera – all Liberal, & all four greatly outside our target range, in whichever direction.

  13. I know there are lots of candidates across Victoria, but it would be really cool if we could get more information on these independents. its hard to tell who is just an antivaxxer or an serious local trying to improve our area. I’m just tired of the major LIB and LAB. why is GRN the only other ‘serious’ option? I looked up Simon Gnieslaw and found his webpage it is pretty comprehensive, could it be added to the hyperlinks available?

    Simon Gnieslaw Independent for reference https://1sg.au/

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