Bellarine – Victoria 2022

Two unknowns still in Bellarine. Will Lisa Neville recontest and will the Liberals tap their endorsed candidate on the shoulder to make way for Stephanie Asher to stand?

Lisa is retiring. Libs could make up some ground with a decent local appointment. This election might be quite the minefield for the Andrews government and I don’t think the polls will reflect that until the days leading up to it.

Labor hold, I don’t see the Liberals picking this up however there could be a small to them due to the lose of a long time member

It will be interesting to see who Labor choose to replace Neville. The Liberals have (currently) preselected a relatively unknown candidate in Queenscliffe Borough councillor Grigau. If former Geelong mayor (and failed Corangamite candidate) were to run it would potentially make for a closer race, but one which labor would still win.

The Age reporting that Labor will preselect Marles’ electorate officer Alison Marchant. Marchant is a Moriac resident, which is not located on the Bellarine – it’s on the western edge of South Barwon (almost in Polwarth), about 25km west of the Bellarine. Not sure why Labor couldn’t find a local candidate.

Liberals seem to be throwing a lot at this one and Grigau is definitely coming across as more of a community driven candidate, however I don’t think the Liberal title will go down well and the Federal Corangamite result points to a pretty easy Labor hold

Suspect the margin is quite a bit inflated here after 2018, and the retirement of a long term incumbent means an unexpected Liberal gain shouldn’t be ruled out. Labor seems to be putting a fair bit of resources into this by the looks of it.

This is some what similar to Monbulk. Margin is certainly inflated and while Monbulk has tree changers, Bellarine has sea changers. i agree there will be a swing back to the Libs with Neville retiring but i am not sure if it will be enough and considering this area does not really have anti-lockdown sentiment. These boundaries are more favourable for the Libs than the 2002-2010 boundaries.

The demographic changes here have favoured Labor so I expect them to hold here

Losing Lisa Neville would have put this seat in play in other elections, but I’m not seeing it this year.

On federal results, Greens had one of the strongest swings towards them of any electorate in Corangamite. It was at booths throughout the electorate, but for this page I will note the Greens picked up very strong swings in many parts of the Bellarine, particularly Ocean Grove.

What I think that means is that the Liberals aren’t winning this back even in a good election. People have been talking about Sea and Tree changers as a progressive demographic for a while now, but it seems to have been supercharged lately.

ALP retain

The margin is definitely inflated here. The seat of Geelong, for example, is more safe for Labor in practice despite being on a slimmer margin.

Bellarine has a history of large swings towards challengers and against incumbents on both sides, which I think can be put down to Bellarine voters, historically, collectively being very colloquial and independent – voting for the person rather than the party. That could be changing though.

I still expect the ALP will hold but with an above average swing against (factors above combined with the retirement of a long term incumbent) the ALP that’ll put the electorate back into marginal territory.

I’ve made yet another target seat map, this time for Victorian state seats. You can view it here: https://jmp.sh/MqI4YbHV

As always, purple seats are targets for the major parties, yellow seats are Greens targets, teal seats are teal targets, red seats are Labor seats that aren’t in play, blue seats are Liberal seats that aren’t in play, dark green seats are Nationals seats that aren’t in play and light green seats are Greens seats that aren’t in play. Darker shades indicate higher priority targets while lighter shades indicate lower priority targets.

This was a hard one to make since although I’ve been to Melbourne and regional Victoria (I’ve been to every state and territory plus other countries), I still don’t know Victoria as well as I know NSW or Queensland. However, looking at swings and trends plus margins were enough for me to make this map.

The top-priority target seats for the majors on my map are Bass, Croydon, Eureka, Hastings, Pakenham and Ripon. All of these are marginal seats except for Eureka which is fairly safe, and all of them except Croydon are Labor seats. Clearly eastern Melbourne is still a very competitive area, but I thought to myself: why don’t the Liberals target all the regional seats Labor has? So what I’ve done is I’ve only got four red seats outside Melbourne: Bendigo West, Geelong, Lara and Wendouree.

Another big thing is I’ve added both leaders seats as very low-priority targets. Jacinta Allan’s seat of Bendigo East has traditionally been marginal and her progressive views may not play out well in a regional-rural seat, even though Bendigo itself is a working-class regional city. On the other hand, John Pesutto’s seat of Hawthorn is a minor teal target. I don’t think the teals (or any independents really) will win any seats in Victoria and I don’t think any new independents will get elected in NSW either given that the state Liberals in both states (particularly NSW) are moderate and have likeable MPs that are fitted for their electorate. So, I don’t think John will lose his seat. Nor do I think, say, Jess Wilson (the member for Kew), will be unseated, or, for example, James Griffin (Manly), Rory Amon (Pittwater) or Felicity Wilson (North Shore) in NSW will be unseated.

Any suggestions or improvements are welcome.

@NP Benambra would be a target for the teals if Hawkins recontested now Bill Tilley has retired. however if HH supports a labor minority governement her chances would be almost 0

@NP Bendigo east is a certain labor hold given her increased profile as premier and the fact that Bendigo is basically a satellite city of melbourne and is about as left wing as you can get in the sticks. although if labor lost the election shed probabl y retire and then i d say its open for the libs to snatch it. Pesutto will either hold his seat or be forced to resign depending on how this thing with deeming goes. given the libs are in opposition in NSW i wouldnt see any o them losing hteir seats to independants

@John of course she has an increased profile as Premier (hence why it’s rated very low, just how I’d rate Kogarah in NSW until Chris Minns retires) but Allan being left-wing may not play well in some of the rural towns which might already vote Coalition. The federal seat of Bendigo voted 59.47% No in the Voice referendum, for example.

@NP as we saw with the voice people did not vote on party lines because bendigo vote 62.55 labor in the federal election and close to that with both bendigo state seats. bendigo east doesnt contain many rural places any more. bendigo as a federal division bendigo has always been a left leaning seat even if marginally and the only hope the libs ever have to wi them is if they are having a really good year and maybe no sitting memeber standing

@ NP
Great map as usual let me give you my two cents again
1. I dont think Morwell is in play for Labor at all despite the margin. This area has been clearly trending away from Labor and the coal industry declines i think you can have it solid Green.
2. I dont think Clarinda or Mulgrave should be purple while they have parts which are Liberal leaning they are swamped by solid Red manufacturing suburbs. They should be marked solid Red.
3. I agree with you that Greenvale is not play despite its margin they will be some correction back to Labor as the pandemic is increasingly in the rear view mirror.
4. I think Sydenham is probably lower priority for the Libs and can be a lighter shade of purple.
5. I dont think Caulfield is in play for a Teal and too mixed demographically, i dont think Labor will win either so maybe solid blue despite its margin.
6. You could have Mornington as a Teal target as thats why the Teal did best in 2022.
7. Regarding Bendigo East it is more Liberal friendly than Bendigo West, Wendouree it has more middle class parts of Bendigo along with some rural territory. However, Bendigo like Ballarat and Geelong has trended Labor over the last 25 years.
8. I would put Polwarth a shade of purple there is some favorable demographic trends for Labor there.
I largely accept your other suggestions.

The seats in Bendigo Ballarat and Geelong are almost guaranteed a Labor hold short of a liberal landslide. The marginal seats of 2014 have approx 10% margins. I would expect if all went well for the libs.. it would take 2 or more elections for them to win. Also with exception of the Latrobe Valley the demographic changes in country areas are favouring Labor. Polwarth has a margin of about one per cent and will improve with the growth of the surf coast.

At the moment I think Vic Labor is better positioned to get a 4th term than NSW Labor is to get a 2nd. It’s not clear to me what the Liberals path to government is.

Allan is from the left but no more than Andrews was, and her being an MP from regional Victoria vs a Liberal leader from the posh part of Melbourne could help in many contests (e.g. retaining Ripon).

I also think there are Liberal held seats where a shift to the left hasn’t fully played out yet (Polwarth, Caulfield, Brighton, Sandringham). Pesutto is better equipped than most to stop them going red, teal or green, but it may not be enough.

@ John
While i do think Labor is in the long term hunt for Polwarth, i would not compare it to Brighton/Sandringham at all. Those two are very wealthy seats and more Tealish and very economically right wing for the most part so i dont think they will go Red at all maybe Teal like Goldstein is. Caulfield is more mixed demographically so theoretically could go Red.

Further to my point above. I think Labor will be interested in winning Croydon, Berwick than Brighton or Sandringham.

With the way the Victorian Liberals are self-destructing themselves at the moment there’s literally no way they and the Nationals (who are surprisingly, the more sensible ones in this coalition) will get government next time barring a major catastrophic event for Victorian Labor. The Liberals still have about 5 seats they could lose from here (I’m looking at the likes of Berwick, Croydon, Rowville, Polwarth, Malvern. Bulleen etc) and if they keep focusing on their little culture wars then they’ll get nowhere.

Labor took a pretty big haircut in their heartland seats which screams as a ‘warning’ for the party over the lockdowns, and they should see a correction swing next time round. Regional Victorian seats like the ones in Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo are firming up and swinging towards Labor (including Bellarine and South Barwon which has been marginal for a while) so it’s hard to see how the Liberals can even crawl their way back into even a minority government next election. It might take them another 2-3 cycles before they get anywhere near it.

@John
I can’t see a path for the Liberals, there are too many seats which they held when they were last in government which I can’t see them winning now, and they only had a majority of 1.
Bentleigh, Mordialloc, South Barwon and Prahran seem unlikely to go back to the Libs at the moment. Carrum and Frankston are plausible gains but also looking difficult.
The Libs would need the Greens to win a load of seats just to put Labor into trouble.

@john i reckon the libs can beat labor in vic in 2026 but only if the libs unite and come up with a clear policy difference to labor. the nsw one is a little hard to read i think it will depend entirely on the coalitions ability ot capture some of those independent back 7 in all. kiama will depend on gareth wards court findings if hes found guilty id imagin labor would win any resulting by election but if hes cleared id imagin the libs woud take him back. those 6 marginal labor seats taken from the libs could be rewon. i think however labor may suffer as a result of the federal govts failing even if they manage to scrape inin 2025 by 2027 they would only detrioarate further and that would have implications a t a state level. but without some of those independent seats coming back i cant see the libs regaining govt. unlike the greens holding their labor seats once those independents retire they should be eaier to reclaim. the other question is what happens to lismore when jenelle saffin retires? she’ll be 72 by the next election

@KT! Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale and Preston will all be tragets for the greens. i think given the labor party is in its 3rd term and “the king” is no longer around jacinta allen wont be able to hold the govt together and this will be the liberals chance. they need to do 2 things though
1. unite as a party
2. become a real opposition instead of labor lite and come up with some real policy difference

The Greens need Liberal preferences to win Footscary, Northcote, Pascoe Vale and Preston. The Libs preferenced them last time and still they lost. I dont think it has anything to do with the “the king”. Andrews was not really as Charismatic leader so i dont think that is the issue. The libs have much more disunity than Labor does.
The Libs need to differentiate themselves economically but a lot of them are more interested in culture wars such as Trans issues, anti-climate action than they are at winning government.
This term the Metro Tunnel will open as well the West Gate tunnel so that will be a big moment for Victorian Labor including Jacinta Allan.

@nimalan he was able to hold the shambolic labor party together publicly by use of media control. yes and if they can unite as aparty they would win. i personally reckon we lock pesutto and deeming in a room until theyve come up with a solution. with that also comes victoria record state debt one area where the libs shoud be wedging the labor govt

@ John
if someone can find a solution to the Pesutto-Deeming issue maybe they can be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize. I dont know how they will resolve it but if you can good luck to you. State debt is one area the Libs can campaign on. I think the issue about the division in the Liberal party would have happened even without Moira Deeming rally. The issue is the contradictory results of the last state election the right faction wants to focus on areas likes like Greenvale/St Albans and move further right while the moderate faction would argue the Libs actually got a swing to them in Hawthorn, Brighton, Sandringham, Malvern and Caulfield so they tear themselves apart it is really question of which demographic/seats they see their future in.

@john Pesutto and Deeming sorting themselves together and bringing the coalition as a unity ticket is just wishful thinking at its best when Pesutto as a moderate is beholden to the conservative branch-stacking nutters on the right. He needs to save his own leadership first before going hunting for seats at the next election.

I think the most likely outcome would be Labor wins majority but with less seats (say around 50-52) ceding the likes of Pakenham, Hastings to the Libs and Pascoe Vale and Northcote to the Greens, but the Liberals won’t get past 25 seats on their own and the Coalition on their own won’t get past 35 at most. That’s the best case scenario for Liberals/Nationals if they get their act together. Worst case scenario for the Coalition? Labor wins the likes of Croydon, Rowville, Polwarth and possible Berwick and leave the Liberals in their wake.

@tommo9 ithink it might be a labor greens minority i can see the libs getting 36 the greens 8 that leaves 44 for labor and they would need the greens to get a majority. thats the best case scenario for the libs i reckon if they keep going the way they are. though if hawking gets benambra labor could go shopping with her.

Nimalan – I think Polwarth is moving left with the Surf Coast. Sea/Tree changers and also benefiting from the shifts in Geelong.

Labor nearly won both Brighton and Sandringham in 2018 and I am seeing them as seats genuinely shifting left rather than teal specials. Same with enough of Kooyong and Higgins.

I also think Morwell may yet move left if the coal mines close and the Latrobe Valley takes on a similar character to Ballarat and Bendigo.

But agree there are also opportunities in outer eastern suburbs. Labor are in a very good position

@ John
I agree 100% about Polwarth
With respect to Brighton and Sandringham in 2018 i think it was the perfect storm, Turnbull was ousted etc. Also parts of Sandringham along the Frankston line are part of the Sandbelt middle class and the removal of level crossings etc helped Labor here. The issue is if Labor wins it may cause longer problems for Labor if they are seen to be the party of the elite in a city where there is class-based resentment. The Labor party can be the party of Thomastown and Northcote but i dont think it can be the party of Brighton and Broadmeadows which is why the Outer East which is middle class is better for Labor to focus on. There is a risk that Labor working class ethnic heartland call fall to Dai Le style independents if Labor is focused on winning posh votes.

If there is no Teal Labor is better off running dead and allowing the Greens to win Sandringham, Brighton etc

@nimalan labor will never run dead and just allow the greens to win a seat.
@john higgins and kooyong may come back to the libs at the next election,

More comments than I expected. Time to reply to them all.

@Nimalan thanks again for your suggestions. Yeah the northern and western Melbourne seats were mostly margin based but I acknowledge that most of it was because of the anti-lockdown swing which was huge in all the working-class suburbs with heavily Labor-voting unionised residents, many of which spare from diverse backgrounds. And yeah Polwarth is more winnable than Morwell. As for Caulfield, I agree having another look at it. As for Mornington: for some reason I see the teal vote dropping there but I have no idea why. Perhaps because it doesn’t overlap with any teal seats, I don’t know, plus the “teal” member for Wollondilly, Judy Hannan, dropped the “teal” label when she was narrowly elected in Wollondilly (which also doesn’t overlap with any teal seats).

As for the National Right wanting to target Greenvale and St Albans instead of Caulfield and Hawthorn, I’m curious as to why the Victorian branch would do that? I’ve lived here on the Gold Coast for over a year now working and I’ve got LNP membership, and when I lived in NSW I had Liberal membership since I finished high school (I’m also a member of some sports teams and stuff), yet I still can’t comprehend the disunity in the Victorian Liberals. I thought Greenvale was a really ethnic area with a large working-class population. @Nimalan, you’re of ethnic origin right? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on that matter.

The Victorian Liberals best targets are in rural Victoria. Even though Jacinta Allan is from Bendigo she really can’t speak for people in Shepparton or Wangaratta or Wodonga. Bendigo is like Ballarat: it’s got over 100,000 people in it. Bendigo is almost as big as Ballarat, and Ballarat isn’t that far off from Darwin in terms of population. She might help sway Geelong voters but even then the best Liberal targets in Geelong but still.

@John Labor also nearly won Caulfield in 2018. I think that was the closest result in the state, but I’m not 100% sure.

@John even if the mines close the farms won’t. Farmers are probably even more conservative than coal miners.

@Ninalan I also feel that voters in blue-ribbon seats won’t wanna go to a candidate as extreme as a Greens candidate.

NP, the examples of the Greens winning inner suburban Brisbane seats (Maiwar, Ryan and Brisbane) disproves your theory that ex Liberal voters are unlikely to switch to the Greens. As long as the Greens run decent candidates who are not seen as too extreme from a socialist/left wing perspective, they shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up these ‘affluent’ type seats.

@NP thats corect on Caulfield
in caulfield the libs gain
the greens only benfit from the liberals when swing voters turn against the coalition but dont want to vote labor

@yoh an they only won those seats because voters didnt want the liberals but didnt want labor either so decided to protest vote with the greens. id imagine those 3 seats are in play come next sate and federal election if those people change back

The Greens votes in upper middle class areas is extremely soft – just look at the Teal seats – the Greens vote is in the 6 – 7% range – base Greens if you like. If there had been a credible Teal in Higgins or Ryan something similar would have occurred. You will get upper middle class voters who will vote Green as the ALP is still seen as ‘working class’ – if Dons Party was being made today – Jody would have considered voting Green or Teal but would still not vote for the ALP.

@Yoh An Brisbane and Maiwar both have very progressive areas. Ryan will depend on the next redistribution: moving the outer suburbs like Pullenvale and England Creek into Blair with the Somerset Valley would make it safer for the Greens but if it loses suburbs like Indooroopilly and Yeronga which are closer to the CBD to become entirely a Moggill-based seat then it will be better for the LNP (and it would become notionally LNP-held, with the Greens finishing second). Indooroopilly and Yeronga are in Maiwar on the state level while Moggill and Pullenvale are in Moggill; two very different pairs of suburbs in the same electorate. Unsurprisingly the Yes vote in Ryan came from Indooroopilly and Yeronga while the No vote came from Moggill and Pullenvale.

@Redistributed because the Labor and Greens votes dropped heavily because of the teals. The Liberals still got nearly 40% in teal seats. In Kooyong for example, the Liberal primary was 42.66% (–6.51%), while Monique Ryan’s primary was 40.29%. Labor’s primary in Kooyong was just 6.92% (–10.09%) and the Greens had just 6.30% (–14.78%), which resulted in a TCP result for the Liberals of 47.06% (–8.36%) and a notional TPP result for the Liberals of 54.18% (–2.21%). In 2019, Kooyong was actually a Liberal vs Greens contest.

The teal seats in Sydney and the overlapping state seats are similar: they mostly used to be Liberal vs Greens contests but now are Liberal vs teal.

But getting back to Victoria – there is still 2.5 years until the next election. The Libs have a lot to work with if they can get there act together – there is a lot of grumpiness out there in voterland – and we are just about to have what will be a horror budget as the state is in deep debt trouble. Labor will find they can’t spend their way out this time. There really is no reason (except political incompetence) why the Libs can’t win in Bellarine and South Barwon. Their only path to a majority has to include winning seats in Geelong and Ballarat – Bendigo is too hard whilst Jacinta Allan is there.

In 2016, the Greens finished second in the following federal seats:

* Batman (Labor)
* Grayndler (Labor)
* Higgins (Liberal)
* Warringah (Liberal)
* Wills (Labor)

Then of course they held Melbourne which was a Greens vs Liberal contest in 2016 and 2019 and it was Greens vs Labor in 2010, 2013 and 2022.

Now where in 2019?:

* Cooper (Labor)
* Grayndler (Labor)
* Kooyong (Liberal)
* Wills (Labor)

In 2022:

* Canberra (Labor)
* Cooper (Labor)
* Grayndler (Labor)
* Sydney (Labor)
* Wills (Labor)

The Greens gained two seats from the LNP (Brisbane and Ryan) and one seat from Labor (Griffith), and easily retained Melbourne. Macnamara was almost Greens vs Liberal, which would’ve resulted in a Greens gain, but it’s marginally a Labor vs Liberal contest.

@Redistributed the Liberals need 17 seats to win a majority, and there’s no way they’d get a minority at the moment because there aren’t any independents, just Greens.

They could of course gain ground in eastern Melbourne and in the rural Labor seats, the latter of which they should sandbag. Either that or let the Nationals get them.

Bellarine and South Barwon would be very good gains, as would Bass, Hastings, Melton and Pakenham.

@Np those independents woud have siede with labor because they were all former labor candidates/members who only ran as independents because they couldnt get elected as a labor candidate

@John in that case the Coalition needs 17 seats to form not just a majority government, but a government in general.

@ NP
Have a look at the article below. Many is the right flank of the Coalition believe that the working class is their future and they need to move beyond their traditional affluent base. Peta Credlin, Rita Panahi, Andrew Bolt often mention they need to forget about the Teal seats. They believe by focusing more on social conservatism labor heartlands can be won. Yes i am ethnic and regarding Greenvale. It is actually interesting the naming of the electorate may actually give some false hope for the Libs. The namesake suburb of Greenvale is actually quite an aspirational McMansion suburb a bit like Abbotsbury/Cecil Hills etc. It is less diverse than other suburbs in the same electorate has a significant Italian community. So if the electorate consisted of only Greenvale, some nearby semi-rural areas and Attwood it would certainly be winnable for the Liberals. However, Roxburgh Park and especially Meadow Heights are very disadvantaged working class suburbs with a very high percentage of Muslims. They have large Turkish, Arab and Assyrian communities. It was these poorer suburbs that had the big anti-lockdown swing not Greenvale itself where the Liberal primary actually went down. The issue for the Libs is the anti-lockdown swing was concentrated in the poorest areas and did not extend into more middle class parts of North/West Melbourne. I believe the Libs can appeal to the Assyrian and Italian communities in Greenvale as they largely Christian but not to the Muslim communities especially in light of recent events. Pesutto has spending a lot of time in Greenvale i believe this is to keep the right flank happy as they see the affluent tealish suburbs as “woke”. I feel this is what driving disunity in the Victorian Libs as the two wings of the party are interested in different demographics. If the Libs want to win seats in North West Melbourne they need to win more middle class areas with fewer unionised works and less diverse seats they are few ones such as Sunbury, Yan Yean, Nidderie. Melton is possible due to service delivery issues. Finally, as one commentator mentioned above there are some affluent voters who cannot vote Labor as they see Labor as poor party so will vote Greens instead if there are no Teal options. Some working class socially conservative voters will vote Family First but not Liberal as they may see the Libs as a “posh party”.

https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/the-liberals-need-to-embrace-their-working-class-voters-to-win-over-the-outer-suburban-freedom-fighters

Coalition needs to start winning or at least become competetive in seats they won on current boundaries in the 90s… Oakleigh, Frankston, Niddrie, Ivanhoe etc. which have now become safe Labor seats. Eastern suburban seats like Glen waverley and bayswater should be safe for the Libs but are now marginally Labor. Winning only 13 out of 57 Melbourne-based seats at the last election makes it very hard for them to form government by 2026. The Victorian coalition have been uncompetitive since their loss in 2013 and should have been in a much better position after almost 10 years of Labor gov in 2022