Bayswater – Victoria 2022

Usually I would label this a liberal gain, however Labor still think they have a chance in here which is extraordinary. Bill Shorten has been helping out & Jackson Taylor’s face is plastered everywhere. I only ever here praise for Taylor & I’ve seen him everywhere (in person) so I personally think Labor has a chance here.

Seats right on the border like this are uncertain as the incumbent has ahead start.

The incumbent for the abolished seat of Ferntree Gully, Nick Waekling, is running here. He has held Ferntree Gully since 2006. Jackson Taylor is more active in the local community though. Will make for an interesting contest

@Ben Raue

You currently have Wakeling listed as the Labor candidate.

There was a large anti-Lib swing here federally but that could be mostly due to Alan Tudge who won’t be a factor at the state level and this seat is the sort of demographic where the Libs seem to be increasingly appealing towards. Caulfield, Sandringham, Brighton and Glen Waverley are more likely to fall to Labor than Labor retaining this seat.

@ Dan M, the one thing i would say is that the East of Stud Road is different from the rest of Knox and that it much more marginal and often a bellwether. Jackson Taylor was selected very late in the campaign in 2018 after the original candidate was removed due to controversies. Labor has not really campaigned in any part of Knox since the 2006 election and this was a win with little effort. Jackson Taylor seems to be an active MP he visits local schools and sporting clubs. He may very well get a sophomore surge. This time Labor will have a sitting MP so will be able to run a better postal and pre-poll campaign etc. Labor won this seat on the ordinary vote on these boundaries last time. He may well be able to turn the Kent Park PS and two Bayswater booths Red. Its really only Wantirna which is reliably a Liberal area.

Taylor is out & about really working this electorate hard, I suspect Labor are the favourites here at this point of time however 5 months is a long time & a lot can happen so I wouldn’t put this in bag for Labor. It’s worth mentioning that no labor member has ever been re-elected here so it will be interesting to see is history is made, I am curious to know how similar the state seat of Wantirna was similar to bayswater or is it a mix of the old electorate of Knox?

Jackson Taylor seems to be a popular MP.

Jackson Taylor is a greart MP but this seat will be a nailbiter. What do you mean east of Stud Rd is different from the rest of Knox Nimalan, almost all of Knox is east of Stud Rd?
Unfortunately the most reliable Labor part of Knox is east of Dorset Rd in Ferntree Gully, Upper Ferntree Gully, The Basin and parts of Boronia. This area is part of Monbulk (safe Labor seat) not Bayswater now.

@ Adam, yep i made mistake i was meant to say east of Stud road in the seat of Bayswater (not all of Knox LGA) is more marginal and a bellwether and not as strongly Liberal as Wantirna (in this seat), Wantirna South, Rowville etc. Lysterfield is east of Stud Road and the strongest Liberal booth in the LGA. Last election Jackson Taylor was selected late and the swing was less than in the Old seat of Ferntree Gully so i believe Labor underperformed here in 2018 due to a short campaign period. Agree that having Upper FTG, The Basin etc in Monbulk does not help Jackson Taylor etc Having a sitting MP often means that pre-poll and postal vote performance can be improved all else being equal
@Bob, Regarding re-election and history IMHO Labor could have held in 2006 both Ferntree Gully and Bayswater if it was not for the broken promise in Scoresby Tolls which damaged the standing here more so than in other parts of Victoria. They lost Ferntree Gully by only 27 votes if was not for this issue i believe they could have convinced at at least another 30 people to vote Labor. Also in 2006 the Libs promised to extend the tram to Knox City.

The Herald Sun had a whole double page spread today talking about key seats to watch at the state election, include dozens of very safe seats, but no mention of Bayswater? How could they miss a seat on a margin of <1% with two incumbent MPs contesting?

Glen Waverley an obvious omission as well.

I would’ve been surprised by that too were it from a reputable news source, but we’re talking about the Herald Sun here.

Taking the recent Newspoll (56-44 2PP) with a grain of salt, it wouldn’t surprise me if Labor managed to retain Bayswater or even gain similar seats around it on wafer-thin margins such as Croydon or Evelyn, but at the same time lose other outer suburban seats such as Pakenham, Melton or Cranbourne.

The state government has announced an upgrade of Boronia station.

Seen Taylors face everywhere & Dan Andrews has been here campaigning, Labor clearly think they can hold here.

I don’t think Dan Andrews campaigning is a positive, considering how polarising he is.

Also, to my knowledge, he doesn’t actually show his face in public. It’s for quick photo ops and he’s gone before word gets around that he’s in the area.

Mark, i am not sure there is really anti Dan Andrews sentiment in the Eastern Suburbs i agree if he goes to Melton, Pakenham, Kalkallo or Point Cook yes i agree he is a liability . But Jackson Taylor has used Andrews in his campaign video etc. Knox was not a covid hotspot etc and is not an outer suburban growth area where there is a lot of young families with young children who were home schooled. etc. This is a settled area. It is important to remember that lockdowns did not affect everyone equally and that played out at a federal level. I would say the attempt by Federal Libs to run a proxy state election backfired badly in the more affluent parts of Melbourne such around Vermont etc. They tried to make a play for McEwen etc but in the process let their houses burn.

Agree Nimalan, the east suburbs of Melbourne around Bayswater/Ferntree Gully etc are like the Hills District and Sutherland Shire in Sydney – well developed areas that are not really considered growth hotspots and are also affluent in nature.

Although those parts of Sydney didn’t see as much of a strong ALP swing federally, probably because they are not as culturally diverse. Would that be the case for Bayswater, consisting of voters of mostly European ethnicity?

Yoh an, i would say Wantirna in the west is quite diverse has a large Chinese and South Asian communities while the other suburbs here such as Boronia, FTG etc are more European. The neighbouring seat of Rowville also in the same LGA tends to more ethically diverse with large Sri Lankan, Chinese, Indian and Malaysian communities. That seat area is even more affluent and very low cases of Covid.

Nimalan, would you say Wantirna and suburbs in Rowville district are similar to places like Toongabbie, Seven Hills that feature more voters of South Asian/Indian background?

i would say Wantirna and Rowville are more like the Western Part of the Hills District (Such as Kellyville, Bella Vista, Beaumont Hills along more affluent parts of Blacktown council such as Kings Langley maybe Glenwood etc. i would not compare it to the Eastern part of the Hills District such Castle Hill, West Pennant Hills , Cherrybrook etc which are more affluent and more like Manningham LGA. Bayswater, Boronia, FTG etc IMV are more like the Western most part of the Penrith at the foothills of the Blue Mountains such as Leonay, Emu Plans, Emu Heights etc as these suburbs are very much in the foot hills of the Dandenongs.

@Nimalayan

Raf Epstein went to the east to interview voters on the street, Glen Waverley in particular. Out of around 10 people interviewed, only one person liked Dan Andrews. About 5 said they were voting lib, the rest were “not Dan” or undecided.

I’m staying firm in saying that he’s nowhere near as popular as everyone makes him out to be. It’s part of a huge PR campaign by the government to boost/repair his image, and it obviously isn’t working on the ground.

Mark, was it only 10 people interviewed? That seems like a very small sample size and not enough to draw meaningful conclusions. If it was 100 people then that would be more reasonable to conclude that most people are not likely to back Labor.

Accross the 4-5 seats Raf visited, it’s been around 50-60 interviewed. Most knowing who Dan is when shown a picture, and most having an unfavourable view of him.

This is across seats inclusive of point cook, hawthorn, caufield and glen waverley.

You can have a listen yourself if you’d like. I tried posting a link but it wasn’t allowed. Search “VicVotes22” with Raf Epstein.

Mark,
Dan Andrews seems to be well liked throughout Eastern Melbourne. This argument was used in the federal election of him being really unpopular and federal Labor ended up doing well out this way.

@Yoh An
I do think Bayswater is a lot like Seven Hills. It is a middle class(ish) suburb around 30km from the city, with a bit of light industry. The main difference is Seven Hills is a bit more multicultural, particularly South Asian, although Bayswater is increasingly becoming more multicultural, and like most suburbs in Melbourne has a growing South Asian community.

Boronia is the next suburb but is less industrial, less multicultural and more connected to the Dandenong Ranges (you can actually enter the Dandenong Ranges National Park from streets in Boronia). In this way it is a bit like the suburbs past Penrith that Nimalan mentioned, but it is no where near as far out from the CBD as Penrith.

Comparing distance-from-CBD across cities never seems to work out well. Sydney CBD to Penrith is around 50km (as the crow flies). In Melbourne, that gets you to Lara, Bacchus Marsh, Gisborne, Wandong, Kinglake, Healesville, Gembrook, Pakenham, Pearcedale, or Mount Martha.

It made me laugh when I discovered that Mount Barker (South Australia) is only 30km from Adelaide CBD.

@Nicholas it’s probably because unlike Melbourne, Sydney doesn’t exactly a lot of space to expand eastwards, which is why the bulk of development is towards the west, resulting in long distances from the western suburbs to the Sydney CBD.

I guess Brisbane is also like Melbourne, it’s outer suburbs don’t stretch that far out from the cbd and once you get to 50km or so you’re already in the outer Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast areas.

Melbourne expands to the southeast in the same way Sydney expands to the west. Penrith is akin to Cranbourne/Pakenham.

Although Nicholas you could say Pakenham is considered to be part of the main Melbourne metro area whilst the other places you listed are considered more ‘regional’ in nature

A lot of Labor campaigning material through here with more than the LNP, it seems that Labor still think they can hold here.

Huge amount of corflutes all throughout this electorate, from both sides. Far more than I’ve seen in any other part of Melbourne. It is super competitive out here with two sitting MPs. The Liberals need this seat to form government.

Has there been any visits in the last couple of weeks to this seat by both Major party leaders?

The swing in the federal election might’ve spooked the Libs though I’d attribute most of it to Alan Tudge. This is one of the seats that’s worth watching.

@ Dan M, i think the swing could have been larger if Labor actually campaigned earlier this year. Even if it was not for the Alan Tudge controversy i think there still would have been a swing since there is very large Chinese Australian community in the West and South of Knox LGA. I dont think there is in Anti-lockdown backlash here since these are more established areas not growth areas like the Division of La Trobe. Most of the strong Liberal areas in Aston are in the state seat of Rowville. In this seat it is really only Wantirna that is more liberal leaning.

Nimalan,
In response on the Rowville electorate chat. As a resident in Bayswater I mostly see Labor, it feels like the LNP have given up here a lot of the election material is heavily from Labor & I’ve seen a lot of Labor posters in peoples gardens.

Sounds like Taylor is a very popular MP. It’s not unheard of for a popular incumbent to pull off a swing that far surpasses expectations. I’m thinking Meaghan Scanlon in Gaven (QLD) and Leon Bignell in Mawson (SA). Could we see a Bayswater on a, say, seven percent margin thanks to Taylor’s popularity? Are there any other seats where a popular incumbent could produce such a swing?

Bob/Adam (continuing from Rowville thread)
Thanks for sharing local insights If ever there was something called a sophomore surge this election this is the seat that i expect it here more than anyway else. I dont think there is a school, sporting club, kindergarten that Taylor has not visited which is why i think it would be good for Labor to focus resources here for a notional pick up

Nicholas, Good comparison to Meaghan Scanlon and Leon Bignell. There is one other state example that i can think of in Peter Watson (Albany) who defied the state trend in 2008 as his seat was made notionally Liberal and in 2013 when there was a wipeout he got a swing to him. At a federal level i would say Amanda Rishworth is the best performing MP. Previously every member of Kingston had been defeated at some point but it seems these days Rishworth has it for as long as she wants. Rishworth secured federal funding for the rail extention to Seaford and the Adelaide’s first electrifications. In terms of predictions of Bayswater in 3 weeks i will leave it to local residents to comment.

Its also worth noting that Labor have been taking advantage of Tudge’s unpopularity as he is poison around here there is that to factor in.

Nicholas, what about Bonney in QLD? You forgot to mention that one, 10% margin now and against the statewide swing.

Nicholas,
The only other seat that could produce a swing like you are talking about is in Bass by Jordan Crugnale, however I’m not a local & this is what I’ve only heard.

@Daniel T

Funny you mention that, I thought of Bonney almost immediately after I hit the “Post Comment” button and wished I had included it!

Bonney & Mawson are very good & admirable examples. I don’t think Gaven can be included with them – it is well under quota at the expense of seats to the north, especially Coomera, which is almost the size of 2 seats in 1. And a 3rd election still has to be fought on the current QLD boundaries!

Back to Bayswater, very interesting to observe a seat with 2 sitting MPs that both have genuine chances. If this election does unfold as Labor & Liberal taking seats off each other, it will be a nice change to the pattern over the last few years.

BJA, shouldn’t Queensland redistributions be carried out every 2 election cycles now that the state uses 4 year instead of 3 year terms. This is the case with NSW and Victoria which also use 4 year terms.

Unless when they changed legislation for 4 year terms they kept the old 3 election cycle for redistributions/

@Yoh An
The redistribution triggers did not change. 8 years or 3 elections, whichever comes first. With 3yr terms, both criteria used to be met.

The timing is all because of when Annastacia called the 2017 election, affecting how the fixed 4 years came in. The last redistribution was in 2017 so we still fit 3 elections in this cycle. Moving forward, the 8 years should fall due after 2 elections like NSW/VIC. If Annastacia, had of waited until 2018, creating a 2021 election not 2020, we may of got only 2 elections before the next redistribution in 2025.

That would make sense BJA due to a quirk in the law caused by the ‘early’ election held during the transition period. I recall Victoria had a similar issue with their redistributions due to the way the Leg Council was restructured, requiring three rather than two election cycles before a redistribution of lower house seats could be undertaken.

The restructuring of the Victorian Leg Council occurred in 2004-05, just prior to the 2006 election which meant there had to be two elections held under this system before another redistribution could occur. This unfortunately resulted in Leg Assembly boundaries being used for 3 elections (2002, 2006 and 2010) instead of just 2.

Matthew Guy was here on the weekend and again today and the Liberals have just bought the biggest advertising space in the electorate, a ‘double billboard’ on cnr Boronia Rd/Mountain Hwy, Wantirna. Clearly some internal polling saying they’re in trouble here.