Bayswater – Victoria 2022

@ Adam, yes i saw that sign yesterday. i feel it is a bit misleading because it promised a tram to Knox whereas the actual commitment is only a $2 million feasibility study to look into whether the tram can be extended. In 2010 the Libs promised a Rowville rail study, Doncaster Rail study, Avalon Airport rail and to look into a rail link between Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo and nothing actually eventuated from the studies.

Also Daniel Andrews visited Bayswater to launch the neighbourhood battery program and Jackson Taylor was at the announcement clearly Labor is interested to hold this seat.

https://www.nickwakeling.com.au/survey/extending-the-knox-tram-route-75 – what the Liberals actually committed to.

I think this is THE seat that the whole election hinges around, whether Labor withstands the tide or Liberals manage to peg some back. 2 sitting MPs, both with genuine claims to the seat, as I understand. Its probably unlikely to be an outlier.

This is another seat that won’t be called on election night. I expect Labor to poll strongly at election day booths but Liberals will catch up on postals and prepolls. Also worth mentioning is that postals and prepolls increase with each election.

I’m not expecting uniform swings across metropolitan Melbourne. There’s less anti-Dan sentiment in the eastern suburbs.

I agree that it is most likely that the result here will be tight, but it would also not surprise me if Taylor’s personal vote yields a large swing to Labor.

Taylor has one of biggest social media followings of any Victorian member of parliament. Very impressive for a MP who has only been in for one term and who is a backbencher. Don’t know how well these sorts of metrics can predict election results but he does seem very popular.

@Adam

They buy bots to follow, like and comment. Victorian Labor are huge culprits of this. They spend a lot on it.

Any proof of that @Mark?

@Adam

Yes, multiple collages of different accounts saying the same pro-Dan comments, word for word.

Also when you put his social media pages through those follower audit sites, upwards of 40% of followers are considered as fake accounts

Additionally, the DPC has spent millions on social media, which has been reported multiple times in the press.

Research actually found the anti-Dan bots to be considerably more numerous.

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/23/social-media-war-over-daniel-andrews-driven-by-hyper-partisan-and-fake-accounts-study

There’s also no evidence who is actually paying for any of it, if anyone.

I wasn’t talking about Dan’s account though.

It’s not limited to Dan’s account

The Australian Christian Lobby has been campaigning through here on parental rights and the unborn, there is still quite a big religious vote through here so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

@ Bob,

Good point i always felt the religious vote is stronger in the Rowville electorate than Bayswater maybe only the Wantirna part of this seat rather than Boronia/FTH etc which i felt was less religious. According to Pollbludger Rowville electorate has the highest % of Pentecostal Christians in the state. Cranbourne has the second highest % of Pentecostal Christians. However, Bob as a local resident you will know better so happy to be corrected. The Dandenongs by contrast are very secular especially around Upwey, Tecoma

https://pollbludger.net/vic2022/LA.htm?s=Rowville

Nimalan,
I agree that Rowville electorate is way more religious. I would say that on these boundaries Bayswater electorate is more vulnerable to these attacks.

@Nimalan, still think its early days considering Pentecostal Christians as an influential voting bloc. Although, given the margin here it might be enough to play a factor.

Also not entirely convinced that Pentecostals overwhelmingly share socially-conservative attitudes as much as people make out they do. It is a relatively younger demographic attending these churches and they seem to have mixed social positions, generally more progressive, at least in comparison to their older peers and other religious denominations. Also looking at Bayswater and Rowville more generally, they seem to share a similar amount of religious affiliation as the rest of the state.

Would love to see some more data on this anyway. Because I think that Pentecostals would have more impact in Queensland and Sydney than in Victoria.

@ SEQ Observer, Good point about Pentecostals yes they are generally a younger demographic. It maybe the case they are more concentrated in certain areas as their churches tend to be fewer but are larger in size and attendance. I feel that the Pentecostals tend to be middle class and with very few in the working class or upper class. They probably found in Outer suburban McMansion territory. The City of Casey tends to have a large number of Pentecostals as well.

Prior to the 2014 election, Antony Green did a census snapshot of demographics including religion i wish Pentecostals were included in this. https://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/census/?nw=0#Religion

I would love to see data around Pentecostals and which electorates they are concentrated in.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/census/?nw=0#Religion

@ SEQ Observer, Good point about Pentecostals yes they are generally a younger demographic. It maybe the case they are more concentrated in certain areas as their churches tend to be fewer but are larger in size and attendance. I feel that the Pentecostals tend to be middle class and with very few in the working class or upper class. They probably found in Outer suburban McMansion territory. The City of Casey tends to have a large number of Pentecostals as well.

Prior to the 2014 election, Antony Green did a census snapshot of demographics including religion i wish Pentecostals were included in this. https://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/census/?nw=0#Religion

I would love to see data around Pentecostals and which electorates they are concentrated in.

Just because a demographic is younger doesn’t necessarily mean it’s less socially conservative. Some of the most socially conservative people I know are people in their 20s.

The Young Liberals are an example of that. Although if we take age brackets as a whole, there is certainly a correlation between age and social conservatism. But as Dan points out, it might not hold for specific sub-demographics.

I can confirm that all the cheery 20-somethings I know who are Pentecostal are EXTREMELY socially conservative. Probably the most socially conservative people I know.

A friend of mine works at a “Christian Community” school in the outer SE as is routinely horrified by some of the things they tell fairly young people in school assemblies, “follow the laws of God above the laws of the government” being a memorable one (She’s only there because she needed a job and teaches a hard-to-staff subject, once a job comes up elsewhere she’s planning to make a run for it).

Whereas the mainstream Protestant and Catholic types are both older (almost moribund) and more conservative than the general population, but much less conservative than the young Pentecostals.

The growth is also pretty dramatic – I remember Brian Heath when he was known as “God in the Carpark” in Sale in the 90s, now he’s got a warehouse-sized congregation and his daughter is almost a lock on a LegCo seat for the Libs in Eastern Vic.

Despite having lived in North West Sydney for half my life, I haven’t encountered many Pentecostals.

When you refer to “extremely socially conservative” Pentecostals in their 20s, what sort of beliefs and values does this include? I assume it entails strong opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion. How about matters of lifestyle – such as extramarital sex and dressing “modestly”?

@Nicholas
I appreciate your comment above may be innocuous but please do not dismiss/stereotype all Young Liberals as Christian soldiers.

Yours in mental health,

@BJA

My comment about the Young Liberals was in response to @Dan’s comment about the correlation between age and social conservatism. I was pointing out that the Young Liberals are on average more conservative than the typical Liberal supporter. Certainly it is not my intention to suggest that this applies to all Young Liberals individually.

Thanks Nicholas, I just wanted to make sure the thread did not descend into bad things 🙂

The preroll today at the Studfield had all the candidates there, it was about even with people taking HTV cards which would suggest that this seat will come down to preferences from the other parities. I think this seat will be close and who ever wins will win it just, it will mostly likely be days until we know who hold here.

@ Bob, thanks for sending your first hand insights from Studfield EVC. I will be interested to how the Bayswater Scouts Hall EVC is going. I feel the Studfield EVC will be slightly better for the Libs as it is closest to Wantirna (strongest Liberal area in the seat) while Bayswater Scouts Hall EVC is closer to Boronia so maybe a bit better for Labor. Last time the ALP won this seat even on the current boundaries based on election day so they need to improve on pre-poll and postal to win this seat.

Thanks @Bob. If a seat like Bayswater is looking close, then we’re looking at a status quo election result.

Jackson is such a friendly person , Nick and the libs are not my cup of tea and his closeness to the aggressive freedom party is more than off putting. I really hope he will not get in.

I never ever received so much advertising material in life while living here, more Labor than LNP

@ Bob, i drove through Wantirna on Sunday afternoon i was surprised that i saw Labor signs in peoples signs equal to the Liberal in the most Liberal part of the seat and a part of the seat that Jackson Taylor did not represent previously (around Regency Park PS and Wantirna College). The Liberals really need to win this part big to overcome a sophomore surge elsewhere in the seta.

At pre-poll today a lot of people went up to Jackson in a friendly manner & ignored Nick.

@ Bob, have you seen the Bayswater Scouts Hall EVC to see what the mood is like. Also i have seen the Liberals campaign on Lake Knox, do you know if that is a big issue.

Nimalan,
Idk about the Bayswater pre-poll but apparently more people have been going to the Studfield. Also the Liberals said they’ll look into Saving Lake Knox so Nick is being a little deceptive & it seems to be an issue but not a game changer. Also worth noting that when you go to Boronia movies Labor has bought the add space & most of the election advertising material is from Labor.

I live in Knox (just across the border in Monbulk electorate) and don’t think Lake Knox is a salient issue at all. Lake Knox is a tiny little dam that nobody can access, certainly not a lake. That whole area is totally blocked off to the public. Labor’s plan to turn the area in a wetlands would be a vast improvement.

After all the talk about Lake Knox, I was surprised when I saw it on a map. It’s not a very impressive lake.

Lake Knox is a weird one. It’s not a “real” lake (it’s man-made), and doesn’t even officially have a name. There are questions about how polluted it already is. And as said, the public can’t access it atm anyway.

Some of the locals have latched onto it, although I thought it was more with the independent Mackallah than the Libs.

Alp retain

Thanks Bob and Adam, i did not know what the Lake Knox issue was i saw signs about it driving on Stud Road the other day.

Why are Victorians forgetting the hell we have faced under Andrews? Does everyone forget the 801 he is responsible for killing? Does everyone forget the red shirts ( no one has faced a judge yet!) Does everyone forget almost 200billion debt? Does eveyone forget he said the buck stops with him then ran from every question, a cover up and corruption of epic proportions.

Bayswater will come down to the wire, and most likely won’t be called on the night. This seat has had a major change due to the abolishment of the former seat of Ferntree Gully. Federal Labor has recently cancelled the extension of Dorset Road, and together with Napoleon Rd being at the southern tip of the electorate, could sway votes in that part, which did poll better for Labor in the last election. Both Labor and Liberal candidates are current sitting MP’s, both former Knox Councillors and are exceptionally strong in their local community. Jackson (Labor) obtained candidacy in 2018 when Peter Lockwood withdraw. Peter was a polarising figure in the electorate, and when Jackson stepped up, he was young, fresh and enthusiastic. Jackson won the seat from Heidi Murphy by less than 1000 votes in 2018, as did Nick Wakeling won Ferntree Gully by less than 1000 votes. Both Nick and Jackson are well liked locals, whom have previously won based on their strong followings. As a local, this one is too hard to call.

Thing with Jackson is he’s being everywhere whereas Nick hasn’t until the state election begun. When I was at the Studfield booth yesterday I saw more people being friendly to Jackson other Nick but I agree this seat will be very close and it’s unlikely to be called tonight.

I would be watching the Bayswater West PS, Bayswater South PS and Kent Park PS booths to see if there is a swing to Labor

Agree Nimalan,
Bayswater has been key for both major parties to win this seat.

I should have been more forthright in my conjecture that there could be a big swing to Labor here! My reasoning was Jackson Taylor’s personal popularity, but given similar swings in nearby seats, perhaps that wasn’t entirely the reason.

No surprise that Taylor won here, his hard work has payed off.

There is no blue booths in this seat and some of the swings in Bayswater (suburb) sometimes around 62% TPP in booths that were blue last time. Jackson Taylor has now over two elections defeated two Liberal MPs who were the class of 2006. Peta Credlin said after 2019 election Knox was their new heartland but the Libs have been slaughtered here.

‘Action Jackson’ is his nickname apparently.

Can anyone shed any light on despite being an incumbent, the double digit swing against Nick Wakeling here?

This was a total surprise in a seat like this, however overlapping with Aston but without Tudge’s personal baggage, kind of wasn’t?

@echt There were two sitting MPs here. Nick Wakeling had been there a long time so everyone already knew him, but Jackson Taylor won in 2018 so people only got to know him this term, hence a big swing towards him, amplified because he has worked very hard as an active local member and is a likeable guy. The swing to Labor was much higher in the old parts of Bayswater which reflects this. There wasn’t as much of a swing in the Ferntree Gully and Wantirna parts which were previously in Ferntree Gully.