LIB 0.7%
Incumbent MP
Jordan Crugnale (Labor), since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Victoria. Bass covers regional areas to the southeast of Melbourne, including areas on the eastern side of Western Port. Bass covers Bass Coast Shire and southern parts of Cardinia Shire and the City of Casey. It stretches from Pearcedale to the rural towns of Lang Lang and Wonthaggi and the coastal tourist centres of Phillip Island and Inverloch.
Redistribution
Changes were made to the Bass boundary on the north-western edge, taking in Pearcedale from Hastings and losing Officer South and Pakenham to the new seat of Pakenham. These changes flipped the seat from a Labor margin of 2.4% to a Liberal margin of 0.7%.
Bass was created at the 2002 election, replacing the former seat of Gippsland West.
Gippsland West had been held by Kennett government minister Alan Brown from 1992 until late 1996, when he resigned to serve as Victoria’s Agent General.
The 1997 by-election was won by Susan Davies, an independent candidate who had previously been a member of the ALP. Davies supported the new Bracks minority government.
Davies contested the notional Liberal seat of Bass in 2002, as did Liberal MLC Ken Smith, whose South-Eastern province had been abolished in the redistribution.
Davies polled 21.8%, falling into third place, and Smith held the seat with a slim 0.6% margin. Smith increased his margin to 5.5% in 2006, and further again to 12.6% in 2010.
Ken Smith was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly following the 2010 election. Smith’s Speakership was difficult in a chamber governed by a very slim coalition majority, and his position was constantly challenged by the Labor opposition. He resigned as Speaker in early 2014 after coming into conflict with rebel Liberal MP Geoff Shaw.
Smith retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter held the seat for one term, and lost in 2018 to Labor’s Jordan Crugnale.
- Brett Tessari (Nationals)
- Mark O’Neill (Democratic Labour)
- Marcus Munday (Freedom Party)
- Martin Verhagen (Family First)
- Jordan Crugnale (Labor)
- Elly Mousellis (Animal Justice)
- Aaron Brown (Liberal)
- Meg Edwards (Independent)
- Callum Bugbird (Greens)
- Jeni Jobe (Independent)
Assessment
Bass is a very marginal seat. While redistribution calculations have shifted the seat into the Liberal column, the new sitting Labor MP would have a good chance of re-election, particularly if Labor’s polling remains strong.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brian Paynter | Liberal | 20,315 | 41.0 | -4.4 | 43.5 |
| Jordan Crugnale | Labor | 19,954 | 40.2 | +10.9 | 36.7 |
| David Arnault | Greens | 2,821 | 5.7 | -3.4 | 6.1 |
| Clare Le Serve | Independent | 2,212 | 4.5 | -6.3 | 5.2 |
| Frank Ripa | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 2,011 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 3.7 |
| Ross Mcphee | Democratic Labour | 1,288 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 1.8 |
| Ron Bauer | Independent | 603 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.4 |
| Kate Lempriere | Independent | 385 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,522 | 6.6 | +1.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brian Paynter | Liberal | 23,607 | 47.6 | -6.9 | 50.7 |
| Jordan Crugnale | Labor | 25,982 | 52.4 | +6.9 | 49.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party topped the poll in the north-east (57.2%) and north-west (52.3%), while Labor polled 57.4% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 42.6 | 8,347 | 24.7 |
| North-West | 52.3 | 5,384 | 16.0 |
| North-East | 57.2 | 2,751 | 8.2 |
| Pre-poll | 53.3 | 13,465 | 39.9 |
| Other votes | 52.6 | 3,784 | 11.2 |
Election results in Bass at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Like Bayswater I think that ALP still has a chance of holding on her due to Jordan Crugnale personally vote.
Agree, there is a strong chance of Jordan holding the seat. There are some favourable demographic trends here for Labor. There is increased population growth around Clyde with the new housing estates and increased ethnic diversity there. While the Southern part of Bass coast around San Remo, Inverloch is seeing a sea change demographic which has accelerated after Covid. Cape Woolamai has often said to be the next Byron Bay. Expect both parties to visit the area and look out for a Clyde Rail extension promise.
If Davies had run as Labor candidate in 2002 she would have won. 2022: isn’t sitting Labor MP contesting Pakenham? Interesting to see that Labor’s winning margin last time came from south where memory of coal mining at Wonthaggi persists 50+ years after mine was closed.
Jordan Crugnale running in Bass.
See link below.
https://pakenham.starcommunity.com.au/news/2021-12-10/jordan-recontests-bass/
It is her home area so it makes sense.
Aaron Brown – former deputy mayor of South Gippsland Shire – is endorsed Liberal candidate for Bass.
Labor could hold on here or I should gain here as the local member is popular which will help.
@Bob Jordan Crugnale was/is popular as a former councillor and that helped her win the seat last time. The thing is wasn’t part of this seat that’s rural lumped in with Melbourne for lockdowns despite been rural and neighbouring suburbs didn’t have the same restrictions.
The use of municipal boundaries to determine the metropolitan area did include the northern part of this seat (although the similar boundary issues in Narracan and the division of Little River was the bits that got media attention, that I am aware of). However, the vast majority of the seats population live outside the effected areas.
@Tom the first and best Thanks for the info.
Why are there 2 seats in this country named after the Bass straight?
The short answer is federalism. The long answer is this seat is indirectly named after Bass Strait because it is named after the Bass Coast, a section of coast in the electorate (after which the Bass Coast Shire and Bass Highway are named).
Many electorates are named after geographical features or historical figures who made contributions in various areas. Bass is not alone. There’s Murray (NSW state seat and VIC federal seat) and Oxley (NSW state seat and QLD federal seat).
Votante, the federal seat of Murray was renamed Nicholls prior to the 2016 election so that name only exists as a NSW state seat.
Other overlap names include Moore (used for both WA state and federal districts, with both not sharing any common geographical areas)
Until 1992, there were three electorates named after Matthew Flinders.
Yes Nicholas, Flinders is used as a name for a federal seat (Victoria), a SA state district and was formerly used for a Queensland seat as well.
Sa used to have 2 Hindmarsh seats. Often you have state and federal seats when named after capital.. Sydney Melbourne Adelaide
Just curious can anyone name a seats the libs are certain to win from Labor? Including seats with alp members which have shifted notionally
Mick, I probably see Hastings, Nepean and Pakenham as Likely Liberal gains (>80% chance of victory), with Ripon and Hawthorn as slightly favoured for Liberal gains (>50% chance of victory).
Thanks Yoh.. I suspect Ripon ob the new Boundaries is Labor. Also.my gut feeling is Parkenham is Labor. But even conceding that all 5 could change hands I would not be surprised if they did not
Andrews was campaigning in this electorate today to announce a further development of the Wonthaggi Hospital and was saying how this is one of the fastest growing areas in the state, is this seat genuinely in play could Labor manage to retain this seat with a swing towards it considering its now notional Liberal?
I don’t think so. The fact that he’s only announcing “improvements” 3 months before an election, when he’s already been in for two terms, is going to anger more than impress. Plus the fact that people in outer areas were ticked off from all the lockdowns…..which were mostly due to lack of health investment from the Andrews government.
I could see a swing towards Lib in a seat like this.
There is a popular local member here, I believe Labor thinks it has a chance of holding on here.
The Nationals are running Brett Tessari, a former three term mayor of Bass Coast Shire as their candidate here. It will be interesting to see if this helps or hinders the Libs efforts to win the seat back. Or it may a play to bolster the Nats profile before a run in Monash in 2025.
Do the Nationals usually preference Labor above liberal?
I seem to remember thats why they stopped running the same seat together.
The issue for the Nats is that the demographics dont work here. A large part of this area is part of Greater Melbourne and Bass Coast Shire is increasingly sea change territory like the Surf Coast. In Monash, South Gippsland Shire is strong for the Nats so it makes sense for them to run there. Bridget McKenzie was the National candidate in McMillan in 2004.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/bassvic2022/comment-page-1#comment-776001
The Nats preference the Liberals, they are in the Coalition together.
Once in 1970 the then Country Party (which was not in coalition with the Liberal Party, at state level, at the time) did preference the ALP in the state election. The ALP gained Dundas, Kara Kara, Portland and Gippsland Province and retained Midlands on Country Party preferences in 1970. The ALP also very nearly gained Narracan and got the margin under 3% in Gippsland West (which became Bass in 2001-2) and the Country Party nearly gained Polwarth. ALP preferencing of the Country Party was however patchy, causing the Country party to lose some seats.
I’m seeing National adds for Bass everywhere, why are they spending so much money here?
Bob
The seat is open being Labor held. Brett Tessari has a high local profile as he was a local mayor previously. I have only been in the northern parts of Bass and both the Brett Tessari and Aaron Brown signs have been prominent. Brett Tessari might be setting himself up for a run in Monash and it will help set up the groundwork in seemingly unfriendly territory.
It’s because Bass is probably the Nats best chance of gaining a seat-
– they won’t gain Mildura due to the sophomore surge for Ali Cupper
– Shepparton is tough since Suzanna Sheed will probably run again. Sheed screwed up with the super school, but the Nats can’t run on that since they put Sam Birrell into Nicholls federally who also supported it
– Morwell boundaries favour ALP and the Vic Nats are now too green on climate action and anti-coal power to realistically win it back
– no real chance in Ballarat or Bendigo areas
I suspect Tessari would stood a stronger chance if standing as an independent but seems he wanted someone with deeper pockets to fund his run. The idea he is playing long game and positioning for a tilt at Monash could be on the right track.
Gossip is odds for Bass slightly favour Lib Aaron Brown, but many happy to see Crugnale prevail. Surprisingly Brown has not seemed to suffer any blowback from the fustercluck that was South Gippsland Shire Council. Whoever polls second most votes has a good chance of winning in the absence of a majority winner.
Why is Labor at long odds? 4.00 to 1.20 against Labor on sportsbet here.
My other thoughts are that the Nats might be able to get up from third if they get preferences from ON and UAP (if they run). This would apply even more so in Morwell. Parts of Gippsland vote quite heavily for ON and the UAP.
Drove through Pearcedale and Tooradin yesterday and saw only Aaron Brown corflutes – not a single one for Jordan Crugnale. In quite a few marginal seats there seem to be a lot more Liberal corflutes.
Report in the South Gippsland Sentinal Times last week where it reported Brett Tessari saying that he and his wife are the only National members in the electorate.
Nats running here is the equivalent of them running in an electorate like South Barwon or Macedon, really strange decision. You’d think they’d be better off running in an electorate like Bendigo East where they almost outpolled the Liberals in 2018, but they don’t look like they’ll even run a candidate again there this time. Some odd logic from the Nationals.
Someone made the point that there are very few seats that the Nationals have prospects of gaining. Just look at the electoral map – which seats that aren’t already Nationals-held do they have a chance in? The reason they are having a go at Bass may just be that they don’t have many other viable targets.
Ham,Nicholas
There is a lot of agriculture in Bass – a lot of dairy farms in the south and horticulture in the north – the source of a lot of Victorian vegetables. So the National Party don’t seem that silly to target. The other targets of course are Morwell, Mildura and Shepparton. If Bass was targetted, it is mildly surprising that there is no Nat in Narracan. Methinks that Brett Tessari has put his hand up and has the resources to be self funding.
I’m not hearing a lot of postivity towards Crugnale around Bass, from the working people. The sentiment seems to be she is “light on substance”. I know during lockdowns she was rarely willing to give a straight answer.
@Redistributed where is the article that says Tessari is the only Nats member in Bass?
If true then he’ll suffer with lack of people to hand out HTVs.
Not all people who hand on HTV’s support the party. some people simply volunteer a good deed, he could have a friend or family member do it. Maybe even some liberal supporters would be keen to do it considering they are a coalition.
This seat in uncertain ..should be a liberal win
Jordan Crugnale seems to be really into photo ops but not much else. I think we need a strong, dedicated candidate focused on the job
The fact that Labor touted the idea of making farmers get a permit for post and wire fencing is absurd. This is indicative of their attitude towards farmers as a whole. Crugnale was silent on the matter until “directed” from above. Is that democracy? Shouldn’t they be able to speak their mind and represent the people?
Lots of positivity towards Aaron Brown, will be interesting… we certainly need a voice for Bass
Aaron Brown will be praying for the postals to save him.
Another surprise on the night, I thought that being notionally Liberal & Dan unpopular in this region that this would have been a Liberal gain but they’ve suffered a swing against them.
Alp has retained I think
Mark, in Wonthaggi we’ve just had a massive 4 storey new building opened this month. The announcement was for even more money for stage 2.
With regard to corflutes we were drowning in tessari signs for months. An absolute eyesore.
It will be interesting to see how much leakage there was from the Nat candidate – possibly exacerbated by the donkey vote. Brett Tessari at top of the ticket but the ALP ahead of the Libs on the ticket.
Labor remains ahead in Bass, but it was reported in the Age Labor strategists believe it was unlikely Labor would win Bass or Pakenham.