Ashwood – Victoria 2022

Will Fowles MLA seems to have been preselected for ringwood:
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/labor-mp-begs-daniel-andrews-to-intervene-in-factional-war/news-story/2491f361e6b8a535c7a66d8a5f29202b%3famp

With the loss of Will Fowles this seat will most likely return to LNP.

A top tier Liberal target but Labor will have an incumbency advantage in Ashwood with Mount Waverley MP Matt Fregon reportedly contesting.

I hear the Liberals pre-selected Asher Judah here.

He was an absolute dud candidate in Bentleigh in 2018. He lives in the electorate of Sandringham I believe (Beaumaris) and ran an absolutely awful campaign in Bentleigh that almost singularly focused on a scare campaign that crime had gotten “out of control” in Bentleigh, with huge billboards of an old man with a black eye and misleading (almost blatantly false) crime statistics.

In a an upper-middle class family friendly electorate with some of the lowest crime rates in the whole state, that was never going to resonate.

That pre-selection should help Labor, who have an overlapping incumbent.

Then who’s contesting Glen Waverley for the ALP?

Judah…. did he have relatives who were state mps?

I suspect that Labor will lose most, if not all, of those inner-east seats that they grabbed at the last election. The margins are only about 4% on a 2PP basis for those to fall, which isn’t a big swing at all.

With covid hardships and the health system doing poorly under the current government, we could be in for a pretty close election, despite what the polls say.

Not necessarily, the current climate of Vic Libs is not at all positive as they always only announce ideological policies rather than sensible alternative policies but only not to appease anyone. It’s a bit like pork-barreling but to right-wing anti-vax voters. The Vic Libs is not making any inroads to the community inner east besides for minor upgrades to a few already well-maintained stations. Their right-wing dog-whistling for covid and freedoms is just like their a failed ‘African Gangs’ campaign. I think there may be a slight shift against ALP in their heartlands and some Eastern European voters to vote (or have minor party preferences) for Vic Libs due to their anti- Andrews and anti-covid mandate stance in fact any right-wing activist is endorsing Matthew Guy but would not be anywhere close to danger and actually, Vic Libs killed off the moderate votes, a key Eastern Suburbs voting block.

Labor will likely retain Ashwood purely due to the SRL. A similar situation with Box Hill and gaining Glen Waverley.

The SRL decision really isn’t a smart idea by Guy since it means they could kiss Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Ashwood goodbye, seats that they should be targeting if they want to win the election this year or in 2026. It would also make Matthew Guy himself more vulnerable in Bulleen since Labor could campaign on the SRL being a rail link to Doncaster. Of course, it would be popular in the outer Western suburbs since they don’t really benefit from it but it would take at least 3 election cycles of strong pro-Lib swings there before the Libs are able to win those seats.

On these boundaries the LNP should comfortably hold this electorate, it really shows how poorly they are doing if they are struggling here.

Dan and Bob,
Yeah, this “SRL belt/wall” forming from Sandringham to Bulleen (or beyond) will be interesting to watch. Since Ashwood is south of the Burwood Highway, the LNP would be very strong here when competent. Guy could very well be in trouble in his own seat.

All the seats above the Monash Freeway (including Ashwood) would normally be strong Lib areas in previous normal circumstances when the state Libs weren’t as dysfunctional and incompetent as they are now. They seem to be making the same mistakes as state Labor did from the 1950’s to the 1980’s where they are too busy focusing on being ideologically pure (which in the Libs’ case means being as socially conservative as possible just like back then it was the Labor Party trying to be as socialist as possible) than trying to win elections.

Labor would retain this seat if the lastest Newspoll was replicated assuming that it is a swing to Labor in the Eastern Suburbs and inner city but a swing against them in the working class heartlands just like the federal results. Glen Waverley would be the firing line for the Vic Libs and if the Teals are significantly weaker than the federal results, they may gain Caulfield and may go even into Kew, Sandringham and Brighton.A weaker Teal scenario may also mean Hawthorn is a battleground and Labor may somehow retain it due to apartment growth. Labor may on the other hand lose Pakenham, Hastings and Dromana due to lockdowns. A stronger Conservative independent may mean Melton and Werribee (If Joe Garra contest) may have Labor at risk of being competitive. That’s why I think Covid in Victoria might have caused the biggest political realignment in Victoria since the early 1990s recession. During the early 1990s the Eastern Suburbs swung heavily agaisnt Labor (but they friendlier to the Libs anyway) but the swing agaisnt Labor in the working class heartlands was smaller. That’s why I think 2022 seems the reverse of 1992.

Labor will retain this seat because Asher Judah is a gift to them.

As I mentioned in an earlier comment, he is an absolutely atrocious candidate with some of the worst political instincts I have ever seen. The recent news in The Age about his anti-development / NIMBY crusade is evidence he has not learnt his lesson from 2018.

Asher Judah is a Beamauris resident who lives in the seat of Sandringham. In 2018 he ran in Bentleigh, and entirely focused his whole campaign on one single issue: depicting Bentleigh (which has one of the lowest crime rates in the whole state) as a dangerous warzone.

He had huge billboards and roaming billboard trucks depicting old men with black eyes. He posted endlessly on social media about Bentleigh’s parks & supermarkets being no-go zones. He advertised completely false or misleading crime statistics, contrary to the fact that Glen Eira had one of the lowest crime rates in the state.

He ended up being a laughing stock who, other than a few diehard Liberal followers, was widely ridiculed on social media for his ridiculous “war on crime” in one of Melbourne’s safest suburbs, and suffered a -11% swing.

Now he’s back in an electorate even further from Beaumaris, and has latched onto a group of about 100-200 fringe NIMBYs protesting a mid-rise development next to a train station & shopping centre (exactly where it should be), and is making his campaign about “saving the suburbs”.

This is despite the fact that he works for the Property Council of Australia, has a long history of lobbying for relaxed zoning restrictions on behalf of developers, and his party leader Matthew Guy – best known for being one of the most developer-friendly planning ministers in history – is pledging to cut red tape for developers.

Outside of those 100-200 NIMBYs he has joined, voters are going to see right through him once again and he’ll fall flat.

@Trent I don’t get why the Libs preselected Asher Judah over Graham Watt in Ashwood. If Watt was preselected, then the Libs would very likely win this seat back.

I personally doubt Libs would win Ashwood back this time in any case. I think this elections Labor’s best hope for growth would in the Middle Ring of Eastern Suburbs such as Box Hill, Ringwood, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and even Bayswater more so than the Inner ring such as Hawthorn.

@Trent

Will we see “Ashwood | ALP 13.0” in the post-election pendulum here?

I’m half-joking – but what do you think the swing will be here?

Haha! No definitely not, I don’t even know if it will swing much, but I don’t think Asher Judah will be erasing that small margin. Labor might increase their margin by 1-2% or something.

I predict Labor will just hold.

The Dan Andrews hate is less prominent in the middle-ring, eastern suburbs. Gladys Liu’s (LIB) vote crashed in Chisholm at the federal election.

Apart from Pakenham, Berwick, Melton, and the Mornington Peninsula seats, it’s hard to see the Libs gaining elsewhere. It’s incredible that the ALP can be strong both here and in a place like Yan Yean too.

Kevin Rudd visiting this seat today. Labor probably a bit worried about it falling

Tessa, I’d say the opposite. Labor must feel really confident about this seat otherwise they would not let Kevin anywhere near it. Or alternatively, and consistent with your thesis, Labor has assigned it to history and are letting Kevin loose where he can’t do any damage……

John Howard was a bit like the grim reaper at the last federal election. Pretty much every liberal he campaigned with lost…..

Having ex-Federal leaders who were voted out of Government surely must hinder rather than help as it reminds voters of how they felt “better” once they punted the PM by voting for the other party….

Best

Pollster

Like the old BURWOOD Labor
Retain

I think Kevin Rudd’s visit has more to do with the presence of a Chinese community, particularly in the eastern part of the electorate.

Rudd campaigned in a number of winnable marginal seats during the federal election campaign such as Higgins, Reid and Banks.

@votante – good point. Noting that KR speaks Mandarin and there are a lot of Cantonese speakers in the area……

A seat that Pesutto (if opposition leader) needs to win back in 2026 if the LNP wants to win government. I believe the reasons why this seat swung to Labor like Box Hill and Glen Waverley was because of a few things; 1. SRL, 2. Chinese voters, 3. Matt Fregon’s popularity from his time as Mount Waverley MP (lesser factor than the aforementioned), and 4. Fregon’s akubra hat (funny reason =P).

Asher Judah being a non-local probably also played a role but not as much as the other factors.

Asher Judah is also pretty much well established as a dud candidate, on par with the Ringwood Lib candidate.

@Dan M
I believe Graham Watt (if he won the Ashwood preselection) or any other local Lib candidate would’ve done better at preventing such a swing to Labor. I’ve heard of the controversies surrounding Judah, hopefully he isn’t preselected for Ashwood again or any other seat. I agree that Cynthia Watson was another dud.

Some swing analysis at the booths; the big swings to Labor happened to the east of Warrigal Road according to The Poll Bludger. The seven booths in Glen Iris and Ashburton only swung 1.43%, the five centre booths swung 7.4%, and the five eastern booths swung 8% to Labor. Fregon was personally at the Ashwood High School booth, which had the biggest swing to him.
https://pollbludger.net/vic2022/Results/LA.htm?s=Ashwood

I think the Ashwood booth is due to more public housing tenants moving back after being rebuilt

Interestingly, Burwood, Box Hill South, and Surrey Hills (areas that were in Burwood and now in Box Hill) didn’t swing to Labor.

@Marh It could be that too but I think it was Fregon’s presence as Labor’s candidate with handing out HTVs.

I dont know why Michael Gidley was not preselected or did not run he seems like a more intelligent Liberal candidate

@Nimalan I don’t know why Gidley wasn’t in contention; the Ashwood Lib preselection was between Graham Watt and Asher Judah. There was some irregularities with the preselection which almost resulted in Watt being selected. Gidley or Watt would’ve been better local candidates than Judah who was a dud non-local.

The size of the swing and the location of Ashwood suggests to me that result has little to do with Asher Judah as a candidate and more to do with with a general pro Dan Andrews sentient in the area. I understand that Michael Gidley now has a pretty good private sector job and probably didn’t want to risk it.

Watt has some controversies himself but not to the extent as Asher Judah. Michael Gidley and Watt are both members of the hard right faction which might not play out well here but both would be better than Asher Judah. I don’t know what Judahs faction is but based on his controversies, I’d assume he’s also in that hard right faction

@ Ian, Agreed. Regarding your point about Glen Iris and Ashburton not swinging much to Labor it maybe the same pattern we saw in other elite suburbs areas such as Brighton, Sandringham, Caulfield etc where the potential moderation of the Libs this time on Climate change, not running on “African gangs” etc as started to win them over back to Libs while Labor benefited from a sophomore surge in the middle ring of Eastern suburbs focus on infrastucture and service delivery etc. Warrigal Road is a social divide between Elite inner suburban areas and the middle class middle ring suburbs. However, around Wattle Park it moves slightly east to Elgar Road. That may explain some of the pattern in Box Hill as well.

@Nimalan Yeah, that’s a good analysis of those suburbs.

I made a mistake, that other analysis comment was for TPP averages, but these are the swing averages:
7 western booths (Ashburton and Glen Iris)
1.36% to Labor
5 middle booths (Ashwood, Burwood, Chadstone, and Mount Waverley)
1.72% to Labor
5 eastern booths (Burwood East and Mount Waverley)
5.12% to Labor