ALP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Danielle Green, since 2002.
Geography
Northern fringe of Melbourne. Yan Yean covers Yarrambat, Diamond Creek, Wattle Glen, Hurstbridge, Laurimar, Merrnda, Whittlesea, Beveridge and Wallan, in Whittlesea, Nillumbik and Mitchell council areas.
History
Yan Yean was first created in 1992, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Andre Haermeyer. He held the seat at the 1996 and 1999 elections, before moving to the safer seat of Kororoit in 2002. He resigned from Parliament in 2008.
In 2002, a redistribution made Yan Yean a notionally Liberal seat, and the ALP preselected Danielle Green, who managed to hold on to the seat. She was re-elected in 2006, 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
- Siobhann Brown (Australian Liberty Alliance)
- Arthur Bablis (Democratic Labour)
- Munish Bansal (Independent)
- Danielle Green (Labor)
- David Snelling (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Hugh McKinnon (Greens)
- Meralyn Klein (Liberal)
- Yassin Akram Albarri (Independent)
Assessment
Yan Yean is a marginal Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Danielle Green | Labor | 17,499 | 43.0 | +3.6 |
| Sam Ozturk | Liberal | 17,030 | 41.9 | -2.5 |
| Daniel Sacchero | Greens | 2,945 | 7.2 | -2.0 |
| Rodney Baker | Family First | 1,157 | 2.8 | -0.4 |
| Rob Clark | Shooters And Fishers | 1,111 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Bruce Stevens | Country Alliance | 715 | 1.8 | +1.1 |
| Geraldine Roelink | Rise Up Australia | 232 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 2,188 | 5.1 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Danielle Green | Labor | 21,831 | 53.7 | +3.7 |
| Sam Ozturk | Liberal | 18,858 | 46.3 | -3.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Yan Yean have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Whittlesea council area have been grouped as South. A cluster of three polling places at the southern tip of Nillumbik council area have been grouped as Central, while the remainder of booths have been grouped as North.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.5% in the south to 54.7% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 51.5 | 9,501 | 23.4 |
| North | 54.7 | 7,198 | 17.7 |
| Central | 54.6 | 6,843 | 16.8 |
| Other votes | 53.2 | 7,758 | 19.1 |
| Pre-poll | 54.1 | 9,389 | 23.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Yan Yean at the 2014 Victorian state election
This is an interesting seat.
Population growth means that Labor-voting suburban areas tend to get removed at each redistribution, which has always benefited the Liberals. But the population growth also means that the remaining rural areas become more urbanised every year, which helps Labor.
This has resulted in an odd electoral pattern where Labor tends to gradually build up its margin (relative to the state-wide result), only to have it wiped out at each redistribution, start the next election from ‘behind’, notionally win it back, and gradually build up the margin again.
With continued urban growth around Mernda, Beveridge and Wallan, I think this will be easily held by Labor. Even if there was a swing against Labor state-wide, I think this would be safer than other seats of similar margin.
Mermda rail being successfully completed should secure this one for Labor.
It’s interesting to overlay this electorate over the Victorian Planning Authority’s urban growth boundary. Wallan is the northern extremity of a narrow corridor extending north from Craigieburn. On the other hand, Plenty and Yarrambat fall outside that boundary, as does Whitlesea. It explains a lot about the geographic discrepancies in the voting patterns.
Klein was disendorsed because of Anti Muslim remarks on a video, I believe she is no longer the candidate Please update Ben. My assesment: Very likely Labor hold. Margin will likely increase to 5-7%
Anyone who is dis-endorsed by a party after the ballot paper is active is still on it as a candidate for that party. The only difference is that party helpers may not be helping (some will still help though), the future leaflet money will drys up and and the party name may be covered over on the already printed polling day posters the former party candidate may already have and probably helped pay for. A party need to be more careful in pre selections and the successful candidate must have party rules and candidate conditions explained to them that they should obey.
A Jewish self styled unarmed combat “expert” called Avi from Caulfield interviews this Liberal and this did not help her. That clip on on You Tube. Even the main stream Caulfield Jews have disowned Avi.
Avi’s interview with Klein got coverage in The Age and Herald Sun today (Friday). The Liberal (independent) may even get more votes now.
Situations like the Liberal Party are facing in Yan Yean, where a candidate will appear on the ballot paper as the candidate of a party after being disendorsed as candidate, makes me wonder if there should be a procedure for voiding elections in cases like this. However, there is likely to be all kinds of mischief if such a scheme were introduced.
Who else agrees this is a Likely Labor hold?
Tom the first and best – the former Liberal candidate has not broken any VEC rules its just a Liberal party matter. Theoretically the party does not matter just the candidate too.
The party name has only been added to the ballot paper, at the behest of a parliamentary committee (dominated by major parties), to simplify voting for morons who dont do their homework before going to the polling place.
Another reason to dump attendance voting and replace it with postal voting were a voter can sit at home and check out candidates and parties on the computer before filling in the ballot paper.
My prediction: Much like Ivanhoe closer to the city, Yan Yean will likely continue to be a little out of reach for the Liberals.
Big giant swing turning it into a very safe Labor seat in one stroke. Demographic changes are helping ALP here, will be out of reach for the Libs for a long while.
Avi Yenini’s party Australian Liberty Alliance has got 0.02 of a quota in Northern Metro (Upper House) so far and similar voter rejections in all other electorates. His brother anti child abuse activist Manny Waks is the real hero and he is not a candidate anywhere.