ALP 14.6%
Incumbent MP
Telmo Languiller, since 2014. Previously member for Sunshine 1999-2002, member for Derrimut 2002-2014.
Geography
South-Western Melbourne. Tarneit covers the north-eastern corner of the City of Wyndham, including the suburbs of Laverton North, Tarneit, Truganina and Williams Landing and most of Hoppers Crossing.
History
Tarneit has only existed as an electoral district since 2002, and it has been won by the ALP at both the 2002 and 2006 election.
Tarneit was won in 2002 by Mary Gillett. She had previously won the seat of Werribee in 1996 and 1999, but her seat was abolished for the 2002 election.
Gillett was defeated for preselection before the 2006 election by Tim Pallas, former chief of staff to Premier Steve Bracks. Tim Pallas was re-elected in 2010, and retired in 2014.
Telmo Languiller shifted to Tarneit in 2014. He had previously represented seats in the same area since 1999.
Languiller was elected Speaker after the 2014 election. Languiller was forced to resign as Speaker in early 2017 after it emerged that he had claimed an allowance for a house far outside of his electorate.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Telmo Languiller is not running for re-election.
- Glenn Goodfellow (Liberal)
- Zulfi Syed (Independent)
- Beck Sheffield-Brotherton (Greens)
- Arnav Sati (Independent)
- Aaron An (Independent)
- Harkamal Singh Batth (Independent)
- Sarah Connolly (Labor)
Assessment
Tarneit is a safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Telmo Languiller | Labor | 17,446 | 46.8 | -4.0 |
| Dinesh Gourisetty | Liberal | 9,839 | 26.4 | -5.1 |
| Rohan Waring | Greens | 3,360 | 9.0 | +0.1 |
| Lem Baguot | Australian Christians | 1,603 | 4.3 | +4.3 |
| Abdul Mujeeb Syed | Voice For The West | 1,106 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Joh Bauch | Independent | 1,083 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Seelan Govender | Family First | 931 | 2.5 | -2.3 |
| Safwat Ali | Independent | 764 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Clement Francis | Rise Up Australia | 657 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Chin Loi | Independent | 491 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 3,276 | 8.1 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Telmo Languiller | Labor | 24,139 | 64.6 | +3.5 |
| Dinesh Gourisetty | Liberal | 13,239 | 35.4 | -3.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Tarneit have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west. Nearly all booths were clustered around the centre of the seat.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, polling 64.3% in the north and about 66% in both the south-east and south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 65.9 | 7,694 | 20.6 |
| South-East | 66.0 | 7,040 | 18.9 |
| North | 64.3 | 5,897 | 15.8 |
| Other votes | 63.6 | 4,436 | 11.9 |
| Pre-poll | 63.5 | 12,213 | 32.8 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Tarneit at the 2014 Victorian state election
It was interesting to observe that in this seat, and Altona, the Liberals preselected their candidates very early on despite this being very safe for Labor.
I wonder if, in Melbourne’s outer west, the Liberals have caught a whiff of a changing mood in these electorates.
The whole area is growing rapidly but one would think that demographics of the new residents (plenty of migrants but solidly working class) would naturally have them lean towards Labor.
@Matt
It may be just that the local branch members in those areas are active and engaged to organise candidates. Just a small but dedicated group of supporters keen to put effort in, even if only keeping their voters happy.
From my experience up here in QLD of safe Labor seats in Ipswich, I’ve heard about LNP voters being disappointed at a perceived lack of effort by ‘corflute candidates’ announced when the election is called.
Lib’s Vic problem is that although they now have a firm grip on some eastern seats that used to be much better for Labor in 80s Labor has provincial cities and the west, and in west new seats are constantly created. But suspect these western seats not as safe for Labor as they look, new suburbs little sense of community unlike old working class west & immigrant communities not socialised into Labor loyalty. Only 37 people voted in Labor preselection ballot here. Maybe Libs crime focus is attempt to appeal to these voters? When Labor is in trouble wouldn’t surprise me if these seats swing big?
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.