ALP 4.3%
Incumbent MP
Josh Bull, since 2014.
Geography
North-western Melbourne. Sunbury covers the town of the same name as well as the suburbs of Diggers Rest, Bulla, Gladstone Park, Gowanbrae, Tullamarine and parts of Westmeadows. The electorate also covers Melbourne’s main airport. Most of the electorate lies in the City of Hume, along with small parts in Brimbank, Melton and Moreland council areas.
History
Sunbury was a new electorate when created in 2014, and the name had not previously been used.
The electorate of Macedon was created in 2002 in part as a successor to the electorate of Gisborne. Labor MP Joanne Duncan held Macedon from 2002 until 2014, after first winning Gisborne in 1999.
Yuroke was also created in 2002, replacing the seat of Tullamarine. Tullamarine had existed since 1992. Liberal MP Bernie Finn had represented Tullamarine from 1992 to 1999. Finn returned to Parliament as a member of the Legislative Council representing the Western Metropolitan region in 2006, and was re-elected in 2010.
Labor’s Liz Beattie won Tullamarine in 1999. She shifted in Yuroke in 2002, and represented that seat until 2014.
Both Duncan and Beattie retired in 2014, and Labor’s Josh Bull won the new seat of Sunbury.
Candidates
- Cassandra Marr (Liberal)
- Ryan Keable (Greens)
- Josh Bull (Labor)
Assessment
Sunbury is a marginal Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Josh Bull | Labor | 16,358 | 44.1 | -1.8 |
| Jo Hagan | Liberal | 13,384 | 36.1 | -1.6 |
| Ella Webb | Greens | 2,918 | 7.9 | -0.4 |
| Steve Jack Medcraft | Independent | 2,850 | 7.7 | +7.7 |
| Charles Williams | Australian Christians | 802 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Billy Lopez | Independent | 395 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Vern Hughes | Voice For The West | 384 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 2,239 | 5.7 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Josh Bull | Labor | 20,139 | 54.3 | -2.2 |
| Jo Hagan | Liberal | 16,952 | 45.7 | +2.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Sunbury have been divided into four areas. Two of these areas are clustered in the Sunbury area, and these booths are split into Sunbury East and Sunbury West. Polling places in the far south-eastern corner of the electorate have been grouped as “South”, with the remaining polling places grouped as “Central”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.5% in Sunbury East to 60% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 60.0 | 8,153 | 22.0 |
| Sunbury West | 54.3 | 5,960 | 16.1 |
| Sunbury East | 51.5 | 4,489 | 12.1 |
| Central | 51.6 | 1,329 | 3.6 |
| Other votes | 56.0 | 4,751 | 12.8 |
| Pre-poll | 50.9 | 12,409 | 33.5 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Sunbury at the 2014 Victorian state election
Swung away from Labor last time, Labor should hold this time, although if the Liberals are on course for a clear victory (i.e. bigger than 2010 but smaller than Kennett’s wins), this should fall.
The swing to the Liberals was surprising in the context of 2014. Perhaps it just indicates the artificiality of notional margins, particularly where there’s no sitting member. Or perhaps there was a more concerted Liberal campaign last time. Which would make sense; Sunbury is a recreation of the old marginal Tullamarine.
This is one seat I can see being very close on Election night and one that may even surprisingly fall the Liberals way.
Strong campaign being run by the Liberals and a few local issues like the council still being run from Hume (against the community’s wishes) is costing Labor.
My prediction: Labor hold, although one I’d expect to go blue in the event of a Liberal win.
I live in this electorate. I expect Josh to be re-elected easily and will increase his margin by at least two percentage points. The Sunbury-out-of-Hume issue has been overblown.