Sandringham – Victoria 2018

Anita Horvath is the labor candidate don’t know much about her. Surprisingly only 7% in the Libs favour, the Liberal candidate Brad Rowswell has been campaigning heavily.

The issue of Sandringham College and it’s facilities is growing in the community. The CASC have campaigned heavily and have lots of people behind them. If Labor match the 9 million pledged by the libs or increase funding, then this will draw votes their way.

Although it is full of an upper class demographic, a 3% swing would make this seat marginal. Before the 2014 election, Liberal Government had a 15% favour, now it is 7% going into 2018, that’s a big swing.

The Libs would be about 20/1 on favourites here, but Clarke Martin is an outside chance. 27% in the corresponding council ward. Has some kind of position at the Mentone Lifesaving Club. Big part of the campaign for Beaumaris Secondary.

The Lib candidate has lots of signs but the idea of one of Matthew Guy’s candidates campaigning against overdevelopment rings pretty false.

Kind of ironically, the thing that goes in favour of the new Lib is that Murray Thompson was invisible and had close to zero personal vote, so what you see on the map there is roughly the generic Lib vote.

Darren,

Sandringham does contain some reasonable Labor areas. Highett is an old public housing area, which you can see still leans Labor. Plus the east and south-east of the seat is more generic middle class instead of “Bayside Wealthy”. 7% is perhaps a little on the low side for a seat in this part of Melbourne, but not ridiculously so.

Anita Horvath was a Port Phillip City Councillor a few years ago based in South Melbourne and claimed to be independent, yeah sure !!

My local electorate. Very lazy campaign (almost non-existent) from Labor’s candidate.

Brad has an electronic billboard on Nepean Highway, signs in prominent locations right along Beach Road and has run a very strong campaign.

Clarke Martin may outpoll the Greens this time, as I suspect the Animal Justice Party may eat into the Greens primary vote.

They couldn’t even win this in 2002, Liberal Hold

All labor have to do is campaign that libs have done nothing and Murray Thompson did nothing and they would get more votes. Hence the reason Brad is campaigning heavily

Can anyone confirm whether Christina Zigouras who ran for the ALP in Sandringham in 2014 is the same Christina Zigouras who is running for the Greens in the Upper House (second place on their Nth Metro ticket) this time?

My prediction: Easy Liberal hold.

A confused status of politics prevails across Australia. Astonishing to take Sustainability Australia seriously when seeking any information on their candidate for Sandringham. Nil found! Maybe he is a false fact (with apologies to Republican Party)
Pugwash???

Dominic Phillips has stopped campaigning for the Greens as of yesterday

Dominic Phillips is the Greens candidate who has been stood down for rape allegations.

Some men (or women occasionally) only join organisations, like political parties, for access to the young “chicks”.

What happens to the Greens How to Vote cards? Do they not hand out any? And especially where they have HTV cards that cut across multiple electorates.

Redistributed – a good question and the HTV is likely to have the upper house instructions on the back. They may still use them with instructions to only vote for the upper house or just hand them out and hope for the best.

Many voters may not know on Saturday that the Greens candidate is withdrawn and not now a Greens candidate (or is he) as the Greens investigation has not been conducted nor police charges layer if the bloke has been interview by them and satisfied them to lay charges.

He is still on the ballot paper and is still a candidate regardless and he will get votes. Innocent, as they say, until proven guilty and his word against hers too unless there were witnesses.

Another reason not to have party names on ballot papers. Independent is not printed on them.

Remember the US bloke who was still elected even though he died a few weeks before the election, funny stuff.

Also if he is dis-endorsed as a Greens candidate will the Greens still get the taxpayer funds for each vote over 4% of the primary vote? I think they will as, as far as the VEC is concerned he is on the ballot paper as a Green candidate. But will the Greens take the money? The Greens got 13.8% of the primary vote in 2014 so he will get well over 4% regardless of his party status I think.

Final prediction: Upset Labor gain

Very very close. If Labor throw money here and put a good candidate here in 2022, they will gain this seat. Obviously one of the most affluent seats but there are more and more young families moving in especially in Cheltenham and Bay Rd in Sandringham.

The result was very very close because it was a unusually lopsided election. A retiring Liberal member didn’t help either. Baring a favourable redistribution, there’s little prospect of Sandringham or Brighton being a Labor target in 2022.

The election wasn’t lobsided, it was a very poor campaign by the Liberals. The margin is 0.6%, a very thin margin. Little money has been spent in the Sandringham electorate and if Labor put money into it then it will swing voters. Yes, it is a wealthy area but Albert Park has had money poured into it and the wealthy elite still vote red.

Pretty sure Labor would rather contest eastern Melbourne if doing well (i.e. hold on to the likes of Burwood, Mount Waverley, Ringwood and take others in that area like Forest Hill), or the sandbelt areas/regions if trying to hold on, rather than here – by the time they start trying here, it would probably be because they’re extremely confident of winning the election…and that would be too late. Same goes for Brighton. A second “Danslide” akin to Neville Wran’s consecutive “Wranslides” seems very unlikely; a lot more likely there’s a correction.