ALP 5.5%
Incumbent MP
Judith Graley, since 2006.
Geography
Narre Warren South covers central parts of the City of Casey, specifically the suburbs of Hampton Park and Narre Warren South and parts of Berwick and Lynbrook.
History
Narre Warren South was created at the 2002 election. It was considered to be a marginal Liberal seat, but was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Dale Wilson, who gained a swing of about 14%.
Wilson lost a preselection battle to Judith Graley in 2006. Graley won the seat, only suffering a small swing against the ALP. Graley was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Judith Graley is not running for re-election.
- Gagandeep Singh (Transport Matters)
- Susan Serey (Liberal)
- Michael Butler (Greens)
- Gary Maas (Labor)
Assessment
Narre Warren South is a marginal Labor seat, but will likely stay in Labor hands.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Judith Graley | Labor | 19,501 | 48.2 | -1.0 |
| Susan Serey | Liberal | 16,212 | 40.1 | +2.5 |
| Lynette Keleher | Greens | 2,465 | 6.1 | -0.8 |
| Anthony Sofe | Rise Up Australia | 1,278 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Narmien Andrawis | Australian Christians | 1,021 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Informal | 2,414 | 5.6 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Judith Graley | Labor | 22,461 | 55.5 | -1.9 |
| Susan Serey | Liberal | 18,016 | 44.5 | +1.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Narre Warren South have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.4% in the east to 64.5% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 54.6 | 7,925 | 19.6 |
| East | 50.4 | 7,803 | 19.3 |
| West | 64.5 | 6,252 | 15.4 |
| Other votes | 53.9 | 8,004 | 19.8 |
| Pre-poll | 57.2 | 10,493 | 25.9 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren South at the 2014 Victorian state election
Staunchly working class Hampton Park keeps this in Labor hands, although you can see that the rest of the seat is standard marginal suburbia.
One issue the Liberals face in both Narre Warren seats is that there’s enough strongly Labor voting territory in Hallam and Hampton Park, to effectively “swamp” the marginal/Liberal leaning areas further east.
The swamping effect was also demonstrated by the creation of this seat. Going into the 2002 election, Narre Warren South was a notional Liberal electorate created almost entirely out of the reliably Labor voting Dandenong.
Despite the lack of incombent I can see this remaining in Labor hands. Long term following the next redistribution it should become more like state Cranbourne given that its likely for the staunchly ALP heartland of Hampton Park and Hallam moving into Dandenong and the boundary I imagine moving south to Thompson’s Road.
Given that Rise Up Australia have a councillor on Casey I imagine them and Aus Conservatives both running candidates – collectively pooling ~ 6-8% of the vote.
My prediction: Labor hold, unless the Liberals are on course to win a landslide.