ALP 4.6%
Incumbent MP
Luke Donnellan, since 2002.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers Hallam, Narre Warren and Narre Warren North, as well as parts of Berwick, Endeavour Hills and Harkaway. The electorate covers northern parts of the City of Casey.
History
Narre Warren North was created in 2002 as a notional Liberal seat. It was won at that year’s election by the ALP’s Luke Donnellan, who has been re-elected three times: in 2006, 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
- Sami Greiss (Democratic Labour)
- Zeeshan Mahmood (Transport Matters)
- Luke Donnellan (Labor)
- Vikki Fitzgerald (Liberal)
- Stefanie Bauer (Greens)
Assessment
Narre Warren North is a marginal seat, but does lean towards Labor.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Luke Donnellan | Labor | 17,421 | 46.6 | +2.3 |
| Amanda Stapledon | Liberal | 14,849 | 39.7 | +0.1 |
| Karen Jones | Greens | 2,114 | 5.7 | -1.3 |
| Mery Mekhail | Australian Christians | 1,012 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Robert George White | Rise Up Australia | 902 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Wasim Qureshi | Independent | 550 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Chris Blackburn | Democratic Labour Party | 527 | 1.4 | -1.3 |
| Informal | 2,706 | 6.8 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Luke Donnellan | Labor | 20,392 | 54.6 | -0.2 |
| Amanda Stapledon | Liberal | 16,981 | 45.4 | +0.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Narre Warren North have been divided into three areas: east, west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.6% in the east to 60.6% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 60.6 | 9,254 | 24.8 |
| East | 51.6 | 8,720 | 23.3 |
| South | 53.8 | 4,905 | 13.1 |
| Other votes | 52.3 | 6,943 | 18.6 |
| Pre-poll | 52.8 | 7,553 | 20.2 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren North at the 2014 Victorian state election
Narre Warren North is the old Berwick. Though the name changed with the 2001 redistribution, the margin didn’t. Yet Berwick had always been a Liberal seat, whilst Narre Warren North has always been a Labor seat.
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, barring a strong swing in this area.
The only way the liberal party can win the next elections for narre warren north is by preselecting a candidate from the Sri Lankan community who form 5,500 families in casey.