Northern Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

I think Fiona Patten is in the best position in comparison to all the other micro parties. She has a very large name recognition and looks to be campaigning very hard. They have been at the MCG handing out flyers ahead of footy games. Last night they launched their new campaign office. Their campaign seems to be very professional and polished. Thus i think there is a strong chance that Patten could increase her vote to 6% or more which puts her in the hunt for the last seat.

The Victorian Socialists (Stephen Jolly) could surprise here. They turned out out hundreds of people to their major launch events and those people, particularly at their last policy (manifesto) launch, haven’t been just usual SAlt types.

No campaign turns out those sorts of numbers to be physically present without a lot of underlying community support.

They could quite possibly attain a higher primary vote than what the Sex Party achieved in 2014 and regardless of Fiona Patten’s name recognition, the change of name to Reason will lose them that novilty vote and position them in an already very crowded Centre.

Final seat will be close between Patten and Jolly and will depend on where Labor and the Greens direct their preferences to IMO.

Patten will struggle on primaries when people don’t see Sex Party and see a new party on the ballot and could struggle to get 3-4%, let alone 6%. Entirely dependent on preferences between Labor’s 3rd, Socialists 1st & Reason’s 1st, GTV preferences will be very interesting. Greens & Libs will both hold onto their quota & Labor would want to get further than 2.4 quotas to claim their 3rd seat.

The final seat will be a close contest between Fiona Patten and Stephen Jolly. Greens will most likely preference Jolly 2nd, Vic Socialists could pick up the seat if Labor preferences them a head of Fiona Patten.

Sex Party changing their name to Reason will likely be just as successful as Family First changing to Australian Conservatives. Own goals all ’round!

Idk, Patten has a high name recognition, and Reason should be highly visible during the campaign. I think she’ll manage to fend off the Socialists, even if it does cut quite close, like a few thousand votes between.

One way to look at this is that combined ‘left’ would have to be 66.67% to elect 4/5 = 2 Lab + 1 Grn + 1 micro left. Sex last time were able to steal votes from the right by preference deals that only they could do. If Socialists are last ‘left’ in the running they would probably lose to the micro right.

I think Fiona Patten & Reason are in with a good chance. They are everywhere on the ground. There are many Reason corflutes and signs. Additionally, they may be able to gain votes by running campaigns in the lower house. Plus, every morning this week the Patten team have been at train and bus stations, handing our flyers.
I could see Pattens vote rising to probably above 5%, Whether she gets preferences is another story.

The Liberals not running (unless they do a pre-deadline backflip) will likely help reason in the 4 Legislative Assembly seats they hold and that will help them in the Northern Metro.

If it came down to Reason or the Socialists, any Christian/religious conservative parties that have any votes left may support the socialists.

The Liberals can kiss goodbye any change of winning a second seat, they might even struggle to win one seat after not bothering to run in four lower house seats.

I think Reason have their work cut out for them based on the ticket preferences. DHJP appear to be the anointed micro in this region. I figure the first four seats go pretty easily ALP, LIB, ALP, GRN, and then a four-way battle for the final seat between ALP, LIB, Reason and DHJP. By that point there will be a little under two quotas worth of votes in play, so an average of about 8% each.

First task for Reason is not to be last at this point – maybe achievable if they can boost their primary to 4%+ and collect say 2-3% from the few micros that are preferencing them ahead of DHJP (just Vote1, Voluntary Euthanasia, Animal Justice and the Socialists I think). The problem is that if it is the Liberals that are last (very plausible unless they get a swing from last election), their ticket goes to DHJP.

The best chance for Reason is if they can beat the ALP#3 and get their ticket votes. That’s not impossible, but the problem is that if the ALP loses ground to the Greens, the Greens will get their seat with a significant excess, which goes to DHJP.

I think Reason are still in with a chance – Patten’s profile may allow them an even higher primary, or maybe DHJP could get tripped up and eliminated early if one of the other micros polls better than expected. But I have a bad feeling that the preference-whisperers might have a win here.

ABC site is showing not even a single Liberal get up in the region. I know North Metro is not really a strong region for them, but getting zilch has really got to sting. But it’s another example of the need to reform the above the line vote to be in line with the federal Senate reforms (below the line is already optional preferential with the minimum equal to the number required in the region). How Derryn Hinch’s party with 10% of a quota primary can collect basically all other minor party preferences to overtake the Libs who had 90% of a quota to win a seat is beyond me.

The Liberals will get a seat. The LC count doesn’t include any early votes yet and the last seat is close enough between Liberal and Labor that the Libs will almost certainly get up once they come into the tally.