LIB 7.6%
Incumbent MP
Martin Dixon, since 2002. Previously Member for Dromana 1996-2002.
Geography
Mornington Peninsula. Nepean covers the southernmost part of Mornington Peninsula, including Point Nepean.
History
Nepean was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Dromana, which had always been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1967.
Dromana was won in 1996 by Martin Dixon. He was re-elected in 1999. In 2002 he ran for Nepean, and he has held the seat ever since.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Martin Dixon is not running for re-election.
- Simon Mulvany (Independent)
- Rodger Gully (Independent)
- Chris Brayne (Labor)
- Russell Joseph (Liberal)
- Paul Saunders (Greens)
Assessment
Nepean is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Martin Dixon | Liberal | 20,984 | 53.3 | -5.5 |
| Carolyn Gleixner | Labor | 12,253 | 31.1 | +4.3 |
| Craig Thomson | Greens | 4,658 | 11.8 | -0.9 |
| Matthew Schmidt | Country Alliance | 655 | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| Laura Yue | Rise Up Australia | 460 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| David J. Stanton | Independent | 339 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 2,056 | 5.0 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Martin Dixon | Liberal | 22,694 | 57.6 | -6.1 |
| Carolyn Gleixner | Labor | 16,684 | 42.4 | +6.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Nepean have been divided into three parts: east, south and west. Most of the population lies along the Port Phillip Bay foreshore, and these polling places were split into east and west, with the west covering the tip of the peninsula. The ‘South’ area covers those on Western Port, Bass Strait and further from the waterfront.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the east to 59.3% in the west.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.2% in the east to 18.9% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 11.2 | 54.5 | 8,857 | 22.5 |
| West | 11.7 | 59.3 | 5,846 | 14.9 |
| South | 18.9 | 54.9 | 5,130 | 13.0 |
| Other votes | 12.7 | 60.2 | 7,977 | 20.3 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 58.7 | 11,539 | 29.3 |
Election results in Nepean at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
My prediction: Liberal hold.
Wrong, Labor gain