NAT 22.4%
Incumbent MP
Peter Walsh, since 2014. Previously member for Swan Hill 2002-2014.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Murray Plains stretches along the Murray River from Echuca to Swan Hill. Murray Plains also covers Cohuna, Kerang, Kyabram and Rochester. Murray Plains covers the entirety of the Gannawarra council area and parts of the Campaspe, Greater Shepparton, Loddon and Swan Hill council areas.
History
Murray Plains was created in 2014, primarily replacing the seats of Rodney and Swan Hill.
Rodney had existed as a Legislative Assembly district from 1856 until 2014. The seat had been held continuously by the Country/National Party since its emergence in 1917. It had been held most recently by Paul Weller from 2006 until 2014. Weller ran unsuccessfully for the Legislative Council in 2014 after his seat was abolished.
Swan Hill had existed as a Legislative Assembly district from 1904 until 2014. It had been held by the Country/National Party for most of the period since 1917, apart from a few periods of the Liberal Party holding the seat.
Nationals candidate Peter Walsh won Swan Hill in 2002. He was re-elected in 2006 and 2010, and in 2014 won the new seat of Murray Plains.
Candidates
- Daniel Straub (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Ian Christoe (Greens)
- Peter Walsh (Nationals)
- Peter Williams (Labor)
Assessment
Murray Plains is a very safe Nationals seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Walsh | Nationals | 25,406 | 63.3 | -7.3 |
| Peter Williams | Labor | 8,190 | 20.4 | +6.6 |
| Bryon Winn | Country Alliance | 2,978 | 7.4 | +1.1 |
| Ian Christoe | Greens | 1,619 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Laurie J. Wintle | Rise Up Australia | 1,037 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Nigel Anthony Hicks | Independent | 924 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 2,331 | 5.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Walsh | Nationals | 29,100 | 72.4 | -7.8 |
| Peter Williams | Labor | 11,111 | 27.6 | +7.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Murray Plains have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the Echuca urban area have been grouped as “Echuca” while the remainder of Campaspe council area (as well as Greater Shepparton council area) have been grouped as “East”. Polling places in Gannawarra and Loddon council areas have been grouped as “Central”, while those in Swan Hill council area have also been grouped together.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 66.9% in Echuca to 78.9% in the centre of the seat.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 73.4 | 8,529 | 21.2 |
| Central | 78.9 | 7,019 | 17.5 |
| Swan Hill | 74.5 | 4,378 | 10.9 |
| Echuca | 66.9 | 4,214 | 10.5 |
| Other votes | 63.9 | 3,140 | 7.8 |
| Pre-poll | 71.5 | 12,874 | 32.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Murray Plains at the 2014 Victorian state election
My prediction: Easy National hold.