Mordialloc – Victoria 2018

ALP 2.1%

Incumbent MP
Tim Richardson, since 2014.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Mordialloc covers the suburbs of Aspendale, Chelsea, Chelsea Heights, Cheltenham, Edithvale, Mentone, Mordialloc and Parkdale. Most of the electorate lives in the City of Kingston, as well as a small part in the Greater Dandenong council area.

History
Mordialloc was created in 1992. It was won by the Liberal Party at its first three elections and has been held by the ALP since 2002.

Mordialloc was won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Geoff Leigh. Leigh was first elected in 1982 in a by-election in the seat of Malvern, which had been vacated by recently defeated Liberal Premier Lindsay Thompson following the 1982 election.

Leigh moved to Mordialloc in 1992, and held the seat until his defeat in 2002.

Janice Munt won Mordialloc for the ALP in 2002. Munt was re-elected in 2006. In 2010, Munt was defeated by Liberal candidate Lorraine Wreford. Wreford held the seat for one term, losing in 2014 to Labor’s Tim Richardson.

Candidates

Assessment
Mordialloc is a very marginal seat, and could well go either way.

2014 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lorraine Wreford Liberal 16,807 43.8 -2.2
Tim Richardson Labor 14,840 38.7 +0.6
Alexander Breskin Greens 3,031 7.9 -2.1
Damien Brick Democratic Labour Party 877 2.3 +0.4
Tristram Chellew Sex Party 737 1.9 +0.8
Rosemary West Independent 715 1.9 +1.9
Jeevaloshni Govender Family First 379 1.0 -0.8
Leon Pompei Independent 371 1.0 +1.0
Georgina Oxley Independent 301 0.8 +0.8
Rod Figueroa Rise Up Australia 193 0.5 +0.5
Victoria Oxley Independent 103 0.3 +0.3
Informal 2,641 6.4

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Richardson Labor 19,981 52.1 +3.6
Lorraine Wreford Liberal 18,373 47.9 -3.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mordialloc have been divided into four parts, named after four key suburbs. From north to south, these areas are Mentone, Parkdale, Aspendale and Chelsea.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.7% in Parkdale to 63.5% in Chelsea.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Parkdale 50.7 7,318 19.1
Aspendale 53.2 7,010 18.3
Mentone 54.6 4,551 11.9
Chelsea 63.5 4,101 10.7
Other votes 49.3 8,384 21.9
Pre-poll 49.1 6,990 18.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Mordialloc at the 2014 Victorian state election

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5 COMMENTS

  1. The L-shaped configuration looks weird, though it does appear to run along major transport routes.

    Mordialloc, and its predecessor Mentone, has a pretty good bellwether record; going against the grain only in 1999, 1982 and 1950.

  2. David, you are right, Braeside and Bangholme should really have been the other way around, with Braeside (and Waterways) in Mordialloc and Bangholme in Keysborough.

    Tim Richardson has been a very active member, and he seems hard-working and likeable enough too, although the train line anti-sky railers may cause concern here (even though Edithvale Rd is confirmed to NOT be sky-rail – or as we used to call it – a bridge).

  3. they were all confirmed “NOT to be sky-rail” – seems lie years – sorry, light-years ago. Promises may not yield dividends this time.

  4. Yes, ideally Waterways and Braeside (and probably even Dingley) would be with Mordialloc, and the Edithvale/Chelsea area would have remained with Carrum. That L-shaped District is certainly pretty awkward looking.

    It was one of the sacrifices they needed to make to draw more sensible boundaries around Cranbourne, Lyndhurst and Keysborough.

  5. My prediction: Whoever wins here, barring a 1999-esque cliffhanger, will win overall. At this point I expect a Labor hold.

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