ALP 5.0%
Incumbent MP
James Merlino, since 2002.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Monbulk covers suburbs in the outer east of Melbourne, and in the Dandenong Range, including Ferny Creek, Macclesfield, Menzies Creek, Monbulk, Montrose, Mt Dandenong, Olinda, Sassafras, Selby, Tecoma and Upwey. The electorate covers the south-western corner of the Yarra Ranges Shire, and a small part of the City of Knox.
History
Monbulk was first created at the 1967 election. The seat has alternated between being held by the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Bill Borthwick. He had previously held the seat of Scoresby since a 1960 by-election. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1967 until 1982, serving as Deputy Premier from 1981 until his defeat in 1982.
Borthwick was defeated by the ALP’s Neil Pope in 1982. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1988 to 1992, when he was defeated by Steve McArthur of the Liberal Party. McArthur was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he suffered a 10.8% swing against him and lost his seat to the ALP’s James Merlino.
Merlino has held Monbulk ever since. James Merlino served as a junior minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010. He became Deputy Premier when Labor returned to power in 2014.
Candidates
- Joshua James Norman (Democratic Labour)
- John Schurink (Liberal)
- Jordan Crook (Independent)
- James Merlino (Labor)
- Liz Hicks (Greens)
Assessment
Monbulk is a marginal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Verschuur | Liberal | 15,063 | 40.1 | -4.6 |
| James Merlino | Labor | 14,096 | 37.5 | +3.4 |
| Michael Clarke | Greens | 5,029 | 13.4 | -1.6 |
| Jennifer Mcadam | Animal Justice | 1,079 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Amelia Mason | Family First | 786 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Ron Prendergast | Democratic Labour Party | 433 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
| Ana Rojas | Rise Up Australia | 427 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Jordan Crook | Independent | 342 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Craig Jenkin | Country Alliance | 293 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 2,044 | 5.2 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Merlino | Labor | 20,643 | 55.0 | +6.1 |
| Mark Verschuur | Liberal | 16,905 | 45.0 | -6.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Monbulk have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 56.9% in the east and 62.4% in the south. The Liberal Party managed 51.3% in the north.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 7.1% in the north to 17.6% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 17.6 | 62.4 | 9,984 | 26.6 |
| North | 7.1 | 48.7 | 7,843 | 20.9 |
| East | 15.3 | 56.9 | 6,672 | 17.8 |
| Other votes | 13.0 | 51.5 | 6,648 | 17.7 |
| Pre-poll | 12.9 | 53.7 | 6,401 | 17.0 |
Election results in Monbulk at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Appears is changing labors way
Monbulk is a seat that although marginal, appears to have a decent incumbency factor. The booths tend to be more Labor than the equivalent federal booths in 2016, and unless Labor lose the election outright, expect this to be a Labor retain.
Labor hold, This is located in a Federal division of Casey, so this seat might give an indication whether tony smith holds on next year, Being speaker won’t save him from defeat, Casey is marginal it could fall in the current national polling. Being speaker doesn’t help because John Howard was prime minister and he has around the same margin as smith has atm, It was proven that high profile doesn’t help because Howard lost his seat, Depending on whether there is a swing to Labor in this seat might indicate who will win the Federal division next year
Monbulk still tends to vote more Labor at a state level than a federal. Having the Dandenong Ranges put into Casey definitely helps but you’d need solid work to flip it.
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, should be a Labor seat until Merlino retires and/or the Liberals win their next 1992-style victory.