ALP 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Mary-Anne Thomas, since 2014.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Macedon covers regional areas to the northwest of Melbourne, including Gisborne, Macedon, Woodend, Hepburn Springs, Malsbury and Kyneton. The electorate covers the entirety of Macedon Ranges Shire, and parts of Hepburn, Melton, Moorabool and Mount Alexander council areas.
History
Macedon was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seat of Gisborne. Gisborne had been held continuously for the Liberal Party from its creation in 1967 until 1999, when the ALP’s Joanne Duncan gained the seat with a 9.4% swing.
Gisborne was abolished in 2002, and the newly created seat of Macedon had a notional margin of 0.4% for the Liberal Party. Duncan gained yet another 9.6% swing to win Macedon with a substantial margin. She maintained most of that margin in 2006.
In 2010, Duncan was re-elected to a fourth term representing the area, with her margin cut from 8.2% to 1.3%.
Duncan retired in 2014, and Labor’s Mary-Anne Thomas was elected.
Candidates
- Tony O’Brien (Democratic Labour)
- Rob Bakes (Independent)
- Mary-Anne Thomas (Labor)
- Ruth Parramore (Animal Justice)
- Amanda Millar (Liberal)
- Ralf Thesing (Greens)
Assessment
Macedon is a marginal Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Donna Petrovich | Liberal | 16,376 | 43.1 | +0.5 |
| Mary-Anne Thomas | Labor | 14,677 | 38.7 | -0.4 |
| Neil Barker | Greens | 5,841 | 15.4 | +2.2 |
| Peter Harland | Family First | 1,061 | 2.8 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 1,445 | 3.7 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary-Anne Thomas | Labor | 20,417 | 53.8 | +1.4 |
| Donna Petrovich | Liberal | 17,538 | 46.2 | -1.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Macedon have been divided into four parts. “East” includes Woodend and Ramsay. “North” includes Malmsbury and Kyneton. “South-East” includes Gisborne and Macedon. “West” includes Hepburn Springs and Daylesford.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 53.5% in the east to 66.5% in the west. The Liberal Party polled 51.8% in the south-east.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.3% in the south-east to 24.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 13.3 | 48.2 | 7,922 | 20.9 |
| East | 13.7 | 53.5 | 6,478 | 17.1 |
| North | 16.9 | 56.8 | 5,107 | 13.5 |
| West | 24.5 | 66.5 | 4,202 | 11.1 |
| Other votes | 16.5 | 53.9 | 6,632 | 17.5 |
| Pre-poll | 12.0 | 50.6 | 7,614 | 20.1 |
Election results in Macedon at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
I believe labor will win this seat marginally. I believe they will perform better in Gisborne and Lancefield this time round. I believe in 2PP it will be around 55 (Labor)- 45 (Liberal).
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, although will remain a key seat.