LIB 9.0%
Incumbent MP
Brad Battin, since 2010.
Geography
South-eastern fringe of Melbourne. Gembrook covers the suburbs of Berwick, Cockatoo, Emerald, Gembrook, Officer and parts of Reservoir. Gembrook mostly covers northern parts of Cardinia Shire, and a small part of the City of Casey.
History
Gembrook was created at the 2002 election, when the existing seats of Berwick and Pakenham were abolished. Former Liberal deputy leader Maclellan was challenged by Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean for preselection after both their seats were abolished.
Dean won preselection for Gembrook, but during the 2002 election campaign it was revealed that he had failed to keep his details on the electoral roll, and was thus unable to stand. He was forced to withdrawal, and Gembrook was won at the 2002 election by the ALP’s Tammy Lobato. She won reelection in 2006 by only 498 votes.
In 2010, Lobato was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Brad Battin. Battin was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Amy Gregorovich (Greens)
- Michael Galea (Labor)
- Brad Battin (Liberal)
Assessment
Gembrook is a safe Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brad Battin | Liberal | 20,646 | 54.7 | +1.2 |
| Collin Ross | Labor | 11,568 | 30.6 | -2.3 |
| Michael Schilling | Greens | 3,197 | 8.5 | +0.3 |
| Simon Beard | Australian Christians | 659 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Damian Heffernan | Independent | 519 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Alan Stoops | Country Alliance | 518 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Ferdie Verdan | Rise Up Australia | 406 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Frank Dean | Independent | 248 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 2,106 | 5.3 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brad Battin | Liberal | 22,324 | 59.0 | +0.2 |
| Collin Ross | Labor | 15,545 | 41.0 | -0.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Gembrook have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.2% in the north to 63.8% in the south-west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 63.8 | 8,019 | 21.2 |
| South-East | 56.3 | 6,937 | 18.4 |
| North | 52.2 | 5,733 | 15.2 |
| Other votes | 58.7 | 7,220 | 19.1 |
| Pre-poll | 61.0 | 9,852 | 26.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Gembrook at the 2014 Victorian state election
Seems like a straightforward contest but a redistribution could make things very interesting. Given Cranbourne is nearly 30% over quota and Bass is over 20%, it’s feasible that Pakenham could be united in Gembrook, with the Berwick end excised and put into Narre Warren North or even a new seat.
Labor’s candidates Michael and Simon & Greens candidate Amy have had a presence at the markets, but Liberals MPs Brad and Jason have been very quiet and have not had much presence. An upset swing could be in play.
My prediction: Liberal hold, and will be held by them until Labor win their next landslide.