ALP 14.5%
Incumbent MP
Marsha Thomson, since 2006.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Footscray covers a majority of the City of Maribyrnong and the southeastern corner of the City of Brimbank. The seat covers the suburbs of Braybrook, Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Tottenham and West Footscray and parts of Brooklyn, Sunshine and Sunshine West.
History
Footscray has existed in its current incarnation since 1927, and in that time it has always been held by the ALP. It had previously existed from 1877 to 1904.
Footscray was first won by George Prendergast in 1927. He had been one of the first Labor members of the Victorian parliament when he won the seat of North Melbourne in 1894. He held it until 1897 and again from 1900 to 1926. Prendergast had served as the first leader of the Victorian ALP and as Premier for six months in 1924. He died in office in 1937.
The ALP’s John Mullens won Footscray at the 1937 electon. He held the seat until 1945. He later went on to serve as federal member for Gellibrand from 1949 to 1955, when he left the ALP as part of the split that created the Democratic Labor Party.
In 1945, John Holland (also of the ALP) transferred from the seat of Flemington, which he had held since 1925. He served as Member for Footscray until 1955, when he returned to the seat of Flemington. He died six months after the 1955 election.
Footscray was won in 1955 by Roy Schintler, who moved three years later to the seat of Yarraville, holding it until his retirement in 1967.
Alfred Shepherd moved to the seat of Footscray at the 1958 election. He had held a number of other seats since 1945, but died only months after the 1958 election.
The 1958 by-election was won by William Divers, who held the seat until 1970. Footscray was held from 1970 to 1992 by Robert Fordham, who served as deputy leader of the ALP from 1977 to 1982.
Footscray was won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bruce Mildenhall, who held the seat until his retirement in 2006. He was succeeded in 2006 by Marsha Thomson, and Thomson was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Marsha Thomson is not running for re-election.
- Shan Sun (Animal Justice)
- Angus McAlpine (Greens)
- Katie Hall (Labor)
- Emete Joesika (Liberal)
Assessment
Footscray is a safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marsha Thomson | Labor | 17,542 | 45.1 | -1.4 |
| Kim Vu | Liberal | 10,386 | 26.7 | +1.9 |
| Rod Swift | Greens | 6,682 | 17.2 | -0.6 |
| Catherine Cumming | Independent | 2,985 | 7.7 | +0.5 |
| Ken Betts | Voice For The West | 1,272 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Informal | 2,422 | 5.9 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marsha Thomson | Labor | 25,065 | 64.5 | -1.4 |
| Kim Vu | Liberal | 13,802 | 35.5 | +1.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Footscray have been divided into three parts: east, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in the north-east to 70.4% in the south-east.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.6% in the west to 29% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 10.6 | 66.6 | 7,815 | 20.1 |
| North-East | 13.7 | 59.0 | 7,183 | 18.5 |
| South-East | 29.0 | 70.4 | 6,829 | 17.6 |
| Other votes | 18.8 | 65.3 | 5,470 | 14.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.1 | 62.4 | 11,570 | 29.8 |
Election results in Footscray at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
A seat in three parts, really.
The north around Maribyrnong is a bit more middle-class, and has seen a large number of new apartment developments around Highpoint. Hence the softer Labor vote.
The east around Footscray is more typical inner city Labor-Greens territory, newly gentrified areas very similar to the inner north. Although the current boundaries disadvantage the Greens by splitting the Green-friendly inner west between Footscray and Williamstown.
The Brimbank part of the seat is still predominantly working class. Notice how the Green vote falls off a cliff as soon as you cross Ashley Street.
With Thomson resigning, there will probably be lots of talk about Green prospects here. But I think it will be too difficult to overcome (a) their poor vote in the west, and (b) the gap between them and the Liberals, due to the relatively good Lib vote in the north of the seat.
Yeah the west metro ALP MP retirements came a cycle too soon for the Greens.
They hill is too steep to climb in Footscray and Williamstown, better off they focus on holding their 3 seats and gaining Brunswick, Albert Park, and Richmond.
Unfortunately for them that’d mean (assuming the Greens win those 6 “easiest” lower house seats) turning to the west when Labor have reestablished incumbency.
Or maybe wait until the next redistribution, when is that?
Next redistribution should be after this election. Pretty sure it’s every 2 cycles. The south-west might be interesting, depending on what happens.
The Greens’ ideal scenario is for all of the inner west (Footscray/Seddon/Yarraville and surrounds) to be united in a single District. I think they would be an extremely strong chance in such a seat.
The Liberals’ ideal scenario is for one seat covering Williamstown and Altona only, and one seat covering Point Cook and Williams Landing only. If they could unite their smaller pockets of strength, they could be competitive in at least a couple of seats in this area.
Labor’s ideal scenario is to break all these areas up between different seats, and let their natural large majority in the working class suburbs do the rest.
Next redistribution is mid way through the next parliamentary term. Footscray is currently 9.67% over quota so I’d expect it to loose some of the western booths.
The Greens are running a solid campaign in Footscray. The suburbs around Footscray have long been Green territory and Sunshine is becoming more so as people are priced out of Footscray. The Greens candidate is a good choice for the this electorate and is campaigning alongside the Greens new MLC for the region, who is a high-profile member of the Vietnamese-Australian community. This electorate’s very high percentage of Vietnamese-Australians suggests this link could lead to a swing to the Greens. This is true if the presence of Greens posters on almost every Vietnamese restaurant in Sunshine (and there are a lot) – and a complete absence of ALP posters- is anything to go by. Labor’s choice of the former media manager for the North East Link Authority will also not sit well with an electorate that has long opposed major road projects in both the east and west of the electorate.
The issue the Greens will face to future gains out here is the shape of the electorate. If Footscray were a North south electorate running down the Williamstown Line, I imagine with good campaigning they would be a serious contender. Unfortunately for them, their best booths in this electorate are split between this and Williamstown, with the consequences of realistically picking up neither, unless the Labor candidate does something seriously wrong during their term or the campaign.
i’d hate angus mcalpine.
Hes a Celebrity possible Greens gain but unlikely, The greens would need to get 10 seats before this ones in play
My prediction: Easy Labor hold, the Liberals do too well here for any chance of a Green gain.
Not that it matters a great deal, but it seems likely the Greens will finish second here (assuming AJP flows to the left-parties over the Liberals).