LIB 7.8%
Incumbent MP
Nick Wakeling, since 2006.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Ferntree Gully, Wantirna, Wantirna South and parts of Boronia and Knoxfield, all within the City of Knox.
History
Ferntree Gully was created prior to the 2002 election. It was considered to have a 7.6% notional margin for the Liberal Party in 2002, but was won by the ALP’s Anne Eckstein with 2.3% margin.
In 2006, Liberal candidate Nick Wakeling defeated Eckstein by 27 votes, following a recount. Wakeling was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
- Julie Buxton (Labor)
- Steve Raymond (Greens)
- Nick Wakeling (Liberal)
Assessment
Ferntree Gully is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Wakeling | Liberal | 19,641 | 53.9 | -0.9 |
| Matt Posetti | Labor | 12,081 | 33.1 | +2.8 |
| Steve Raymond | Greens | 3,329 | 9.1 | +1.0 |
| Robert Roytel | Australian Christians | 955 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Russell Wulf | Country Alliance | 465 | 1.3 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 1,804 | 4.7 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Wakeling | Liberal | 21,057 | 57.7 | -3.8 |
| Matt Posetti | Labor | 15,412 | 42.3 | +3.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferntree Gully have been split into east, north and south. These areas largely reflect those parts of the electorate that were previously contained in Ferntree Gully (east), Bayswater (north) and Scoresby (south).
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.5% in the east to 59.6% in the south-west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 59.6 | 7,487 | 20.5 |
| East | 52.5 | 7,234 | 19.8 |
| North-West | 57.6 | 6,632 | 18.2 |
| Other votes | 58.0 | 5,293 | 14.5 |
| Pre-poll | 60.2 | 9,825 | 26.9 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Ferntree Gully at the 2014 Victorian state election
If Ferntree Gully and Bayswater were north-south aligned rather than east-west aligned there would be a very marginal seat in the east spanning Ferntree Gully, Boronia and The Basin, and a safe Liberal seat in the west based on Wantirna, Wantirna South and Bayswater, rather than two seats that are relatively safe for the Liberals. Will be interesting to see the next redistribution out this way.
My prediction: Liberal hold, unless their support crashes and burns.