ALP 8.7%
Incumbent MP
Danny Pearson, since 2014.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Essendon covers eastern parts of the City of Moonee Valley, specifically the suburbs of Ascot Vale, Ascot Vale West, Essendon, Essendon North, Flemington, Moonee Ponds, Strathmore and Strathmore Heights.
History
Essendon has existed as an electoral district since 1904. Apart from one term in the 1950s when the seat was abolished, it has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties. At most elections since the 1950s it has been won by the party of government, with a few exceptions.
Essendon was first won by William Watt of the Liberal Party. He had previously served as Member for North Melbourne and East Melbourne since 1897.
Watt served as Premier for Victoria in two six-month stints from 1912 to 1914. In 1914 Watt resigned from Essendon to run for the federal seat of Balaclava for the Liberal Party. He served as a senior member of Billy Hughes’ Nationalist government before falling out with Hughes. He later served as Speaker from 1923 to 1926, and retired in 1929.
The 1914 by-election was won by the ALP’s Maurice Blackburn. He lost his seat in 1917, later returning as Member for Fitzroy and then Clifton Hill from 1925 to 1934, when he resigned to take the federal seat of Bourke. Blackburn regularly defied the ALP leadership and was expelled from the ALP in 1941, losing his seat in 1943.
Thomas Ryan won Essendon in 1917 and held it until his defeat in 1924 by the ALP’s Francis Keane. He held Essendon for one term before moving to Coburg in 1927, holding it until 1940.
In 1927, Essendon was won by Arthur Drakeford, who held it until his defeat in 1932. He held the federal seat of Maribyrnong from 1934 to 1955, serving as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments during the 1940s and serving until he lost his seat in 1955 following the ALP split which caused the creation of the Democratic Labor Party.
James Dillon held Essendon for the United Australia Party from 1932 to 1943, when he lost to Samuel Merrifield. Merrifield moved to Moonee Ponds in 1945, holding it until his defeat in 1955. He then served as an upper house member for Doutta Galla province from 1958 to 1970.
Arthur Drakeford Jr won Essendon in 1945, holding it for one term before losing in 1947. He later won Pascoe Vale in 1955 and holding it until its abolition in 1958.
Allen Bateman held Essendon for the Liberal Party for one term from 1947 to 1950, when he was defeated by George Fewster of the ALP. He held the seat until 1955 when Essendon was abolished.
Essendon was restored after one term in 1958, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Kenneth Wheeler. He held Essendon until 1979, serving as Speaker from 1973 until his retirement.
Essendon was held from 1979 to 1992 by Barry Rowe of the ALP. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1989 to 1991. In 1992 he contested the seat of Gisborne unsuccessfully, while Essendon was won by the Liberal Party’s Ian Davis.
Davis held Essendon for one term, losing in 1996 to Judy Maddigan. Maddigan served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2002 to 2006. Maddigan was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006.
In 2010, Essendon was won by Justin Madden, a minister in the Labor government and a member of the Legislative Council. Madden had held a seat in Doutta Galla province from 1999 to 2006, and represented Western Metropolitan from 2006 to 2010.
Madden retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Danny Pearson.
Candidates
- Kate Baker (Independent)
- James Williams (Greens)
- Dermot Connors (Democratic Labour)
- Richard Lawrence (Independent)
- Danny Pearson (Labor)
- Gino Potenza (Liberal)
Assessment
Essendon is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Danny Pearson | Labor | 16,026 | 40.9 | +2.8 |
| Fred Ackerman | Liberal | 14,052 | 35.9 | +1.1 |
| Ashley Waite | Greens | 7,065 | 18.0 | +0.1 |
| Richard Lawrence | Independent | 1,326 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Mario Antonio Mendez | Voice For The West | 714 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 1,605 | 3.9 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Danny Pearson | Labor | 22,988 | 58.7 | +4.3 |
| Fred Ackerman | Liberal | 16,195 | 41.3 | -4.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Essendon have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51% in the north to 67.4% in the south.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.7% in the north to 23.5% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 23.5 | 67.4 | 10,247 | 26.2 |
| Central | 14.8 | 55.0 | 7,226 | 18.4 |
| North | 11.7 | 51.0 | 5,401 | 13.8 |
| Other votes | 21.3 | 61.1 | 5,512 | 14.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.5 | 55.6 | 10,797 | 27.6 |
Election results in Essendon at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Local councillor Richard Lawrence (who has been very vocal on the Buckley St level crossing) has a few signs up around Essendon and Strathmore, so it looks like he might be running as an Independent (?).
The level crossing issue might cause a backlash against Labor in the northern parts of the seat, but the Labor/Green vote in Ascot Vale and especially Flemington looks far too strong for the Liberals to overcome.
Thanks Ben for the analysis – even though I think you have it wrong.
I have been outspoken about the Buckley St Level X fiasco however their are many other issues in our electorate that are worth thinking about, her are
1. Skyscrapers in Moonee Ponds approved by this Labor Govt.
2. Old trains and trams and poor PT services .
3. Grafitti, crime and public safety particularly in Ascot Vale and Flemington !
I also have plenty of signs up in Ascot Vale and I notice you fail to mention Moonee Ponds in your analysis which accounts for over 7,000 votes !
And YES I am and INDEPENDENT Candidate for Essendon.
Moonee Ponds is listed as a suburb in the seat…
Driving through the Buckley Street underpass, I can see why it has caused such local angst. It’s fantastic for through traffic, but for locals, it does an even bigger job of cutting Essendon in half than the level crossing did. Getting from one side of the railway to the other by car is a mess for locals.
Be interesting to see the swings around here (I still think Labor should win the seat overall)
I don’t think that the Libs have a chance at all when the southern part (which is full of high concentration public housing) is still a part of the electorate. If the part north of Buckley St could somehow be combined with Keilor, then it could be a chance.
NB. It’s ironic that the electorate of Keilor, held by George Seitz for so many years, a blue ribbon Labor seat, was named after a suburb which usually votes Liberal.
My prediction: Labor hold.