LIB 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Cindy McLeish, since 2014. Previously member for Seymour 2010-2014.
Geography
Northern Victoria. Eildon covers rural areas immediately to the north-east of Melbourne, including Mansfield, Healesville, Warburton, Yea and Yarra Glen. Eildon covers the entirety of Mansfield Shire and Murrindindi Shire, and parts of Nillumbik and Yarra Ranges council areas.
History
The seat of Eildon was created in 2014, and primarily replaced the seat of Seymour.
Seymour was first created as an electoral district in 1992. It was won in 1992 by Marie Tehan. She had served as a Liberal Member of the Legislative Council for Central Highlands province since 1987. She served as a minister in the Kennett government until her retirement in 1999.
In 1999, the ALP’s Ben Hardman won Seymour by a narrow margin. He was re-elected with a 9.5% margin in 2002 and again re-elected in 2006 with a slightly smaller margin.
In 2010, Labor MP Ben Hardman lost to Liberal candidate Cindy McLeish. McLeish was re-elected in Eildon in 2014.
Candidates
- Sally Brennan (Labor)
- Michelle Dunscombe (Independent)
- Ken Deacon (Greens)
- Cindy McLeish (Liberal)
Assessment
Eildon is a marginal Liberal seat and could be vulnerable to Labor.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cindy Mcleish | Liberal | 16,070 | 43.4 | +12.7 |
| Sally Brennan | Labor | 10,375 | 28.0 | -0.5 |
| Marie Sellstrom | Greens | 4,323 | 11.7 | +0.5 |
| Jim Child | Nationals | 2,253 | 6.1 | -9.3 |
| Jeff Leake | Country Alliance | 1,208 | 3.3 | -1.6 |
| Bruce Argyle | Independent | 1,172 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| David Prentice | Family First | 883 | 2.4 | +0.5 |
| Jane M. Judd | Independent | 723 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 2,042 | 5.2 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cindy McLeish | Liberal | 19,934 | 53.8 | -3.9 |
| Sally Brennan | Labor | 17,151 | 46.2 | +3.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Eildon have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Murrindindi Shire have been grouped as Central, and those in Mansfield Shire have been grouped as North. Polling places in the remainder of the seat were split into south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 52.5% in the south-west to 61.9% in the north. Labor won 53.8% in the south-east.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 9% in the centre to 14.2% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 14.2 | 52.5 | 8,884 | 24.0 |
| South-East | 10.3 | 46.2 | 6,654 | 18.0 |
| Central | 9.0 | 57.2 | 6,331 | 17.1 |
| North | 11.3 | 61.9 | 3,694 | 10.0 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 55.8 | 7,494 | 20.3 |
| Pre-poll | 11.8 | 53.3 | 3,950 | 10.7 |
Election results in Eildon at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
My prediction: Liberal hold unless they collapse in rural areas.