LIB 4.6%
Incumbent MP
Heidi Victoria, since 2006.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Bayswater covers the suburbs of Bayswater, Heathmont, Kilsyth South and The Basin, and parts of Bayswater North, Boronia and Wantirna. Bayswater covers northern parts of the City of Knox and southern parts of the City of Maroondah.
History
Bayswater was created in 1992, replacing the former seat of Ringwood. It was considered to be a notional Labor seat that year, but was won by the Liberal Party’s Gordon Ashley.
Ashley held the seat until 2002, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Peter Lockwood.
In 2006, the Liberal Party initially preselected Ashley to run against Lockwood again, but the preselection was overturned and he was replaced by Heidi Victoria. Ashley ran as an independent, and Victoria won the seat.
Heidi Victoria was re-elected in 2010 and 2016.
Candidates
- Heidi Victoria (Liberal)
- Jackson Taylor (Labor)
- Asher Cookson (Greens)
- Nathan Schram (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Bayswater is a marginal Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Heidi Victoria | Liberal | 18,811 | 49.3 | -0.9 |
| Tony Dib | Labor | 12,927 | 33.9 | +1.0 |
| James Tennant | Greens | 3,355 | 8.8 | -0.1 |
| Robert Smyth | Animal Justice | 1,313 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Tristan Conway | Australian Christians | 785 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Jeremy Cass | Country Alliance | 583 | 1.5 | +1.0 |
| John Carbonari | Independent | 385 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 2,040 | 5.1 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Heidi Victoria | Liberal | 20,854 | 54.6 | -2.1 |
| Tony Dib | Labor | 17,323 | 45.4 | +2.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bayswater have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
The Liberal Party polled a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.1% in the east to 56.1% in the west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 54.0 | 8,360 | 21.9 |
| East | 52.1 | 8,013 | 21.0 |
| West | 56.1 | 5,430 | 14.2 |
| Other votes | 56.3 | 6,287 | 16.5 |
| Pre-poll | 55.4 | 10,069 | 26.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Bayswater at the 2014 Victorian state election
This seat contains most of the better Labor parts of Knox and Maroondah, and would probably be Labor’s best chance in this part of Melbourne if they were doing well.
Peter Lockwood is a very familiar name; as well as being a perennial candidate/representative for Labor at all three levels of government, he was actually our neighbour when I was growing up. He’d certainly have very strong name recognition in Knox for his decades of service, but he’d also be pushing 70 by now.
This could potentially be close. Well known Labor candidate, and I suspect the removal of the two level crossings in Bayswater would help Labor as well.
The Liberals have a very large billboard on Canterbury Rd, Kilsyth of Matthew Guy and Heidi Victoria, stating “Only the Liberals will make Victoria safe again.”
The billboard is actually in the seat of Monbulk (although very close to the borders of Bayswater, and also Croydon). It is interesting that they have chosen to have Heidi Victoria on the billboard rather than Monbulk candidate John Schurink. Particuarly as it was eastbound, heading up towards Montrose and the Dandenong Ranges you would assume most people passing it live in the seat of Monbulk.
Might this mean that the Liberals fear Bayswater could fall to Labor? And have given up in Monbulk?
Labor in need of a new candidate here as well now
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-loses-second-candidate-in-as-many-days-as-councillor-pulls-out-20181026-p50c5e.html
Labor candidate is Knox councillor and police officer Jackson Taylor.
Jackson should’ve been the Labor candidate from the start. Much better look for Labor in Bayswater to have a young cop running then an ex-MP who ran and lost numerous times.
Jackson would be best to use this time as experience and give the seat a proper shot in 2022.
My prediction: Liberal hold, unless Labor are on course for a 2002-style win.
Labor will likely Hold this and Nepean, But lose Ripon and Hawthorn