ALP 12.6%
Incumbent MP
Jill Hennessy, since 2010.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Altona covers suburbs near Port Phillip Bay between Melbourne and Geelong, specifically Altona, Altona Meadows, Laverton, Point Cook, Seabrook and Seaholme. Altona covers western parts of the City of Hobsons Bay and eastern parts of the City of Wyndham.
History
Altona was first created for the 1992 election, and it has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Carole Marple. She held the seat for one term, but before the 1996 election she was defeated for preselection by Lynne Kosky.
Kosky was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006. She served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2010, most recently as Minister for Public Transport. She retired from politics in January 2010.
The 2010 Altona by-election was won by the ALP’s Jill Hennessy. She won despite a large swing to the Liberal Party, which cut the ALP’s margin from 20% to under 8%. Hennessy was re-elected at the 2010 general election, and again in 2014.
Candidates
- Christian Martinu (Liberal)
- Tony Hooper (Independent)
- Maria Aylward (Independent)
- Emma-Jane Byrne (Greens)
- Jill Hennessy (Labor)
Assessment
Altona is a safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jill Hennessy | Labor | 21,862 | 51.9 | +0.9 |
| Nihal Samara | Liberal | 13,235 | 31.4 | -1.9 |
| Chris De Bono | Greens | 4,220 | 10.0 | -0.4 |
| Anthony O’Neill | Australian Christians | 1,085 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Jemal Hiabu | Voice For The West | 996 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Brijender Nain | Independent | 687 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 2,425 | 5.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jill Hennessy | Labor | 26,366 | 62.6 | +0.2 |
| Nihal Samara | Liberal | 15,777 | 37.4 | -0.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Altona have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.8% in the west to 72.5% in the centre.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.5% in the west to 15.1% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 8.5 | 57.8 | 14,243 | 33.8 |
| Central | 9.7 | 72.5 | 6,746 | 16.0 |
| East | 15.1 | 64.4 | 5,219 | 12.4 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 62.7 | 5,103 | 12.1 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 61.7 | 10,774 | 25.6 |
Election results in Altona at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Laverton and Altona Meadows are staunchly Labor, Altona/Seaholme and especially Point Cook are much more middle class.
It will be interesting to see what happens at the next redistribution, as a purely Point Cook/Williams Landing based seat would be a fascinating contest.
If the Victorian Liberals were not the seemingly lazy organisation that they are, there would seem to be a lot of potential votes to be harvested in the western suburbs – in Point Cook, Sunbury and around Keilor and Niddrie. I am convinced that seats in Sydney with similar demographics wouldnbe returning Liberal MPs.
Another Independent for Altona – Maria Aylward.
I note she’s been getting some fairly decent media attention on Sky News and in the Herald Sun. May even out poll the Greens here.
https://www.facebook.com/mariaaylward2018/
If Sportsbet are to be believed, then Tony Hooper, an Independent, is an excellent chance of finishing second in Altona. Indeed, he’s down to as low as $4.50 to win the seat. Not winnable territory in a two-horse race, but enough to give the Euthanasia, sorry, Health Minister a deep scare.
Put plainly, I would compare Altona to Smithfield in NSW, but without the beach. This is an electorate with deep Labor roots for most of it, but a definite Liberal/swing bias in one part of the electorate (Point Cook), much like what Greystanes was in the old Smithfield.
Jill Hennessy appears to have been a capable Health Minister (euthanasia aside), but as a local member, very poor on the advocacy side. The whole electorate of Altona is crying out for better public transport, but there appears to be no real plan from either party for improved bus services, in particular.
My read locally is that Hennessy is vulnerable to a swing against Hooper, who is a councillor on Wyndham Council. I anticipate the 2PP which should be 66/34in a normal election, might be more 54/46, or 56/44 2PP. The last week and early voting will be critical, as this is more marginal than first believed.