ALP 11.5%
Incumbent MP
Natalie Hutchins, Member for Keilor since 2010.
Geography
North-western Melbourne. Sydenham covers northern parts of the City of Brimbank and eastern parts of Melton Shire. Sydenham covers the suburbs of Calder Park, Delahey, Hillside, Keilor Lodge, Taylors Hill, Taylors Lakes and Sydenham.
Redistribution
Sydenham is a new name for the electorate of Keilor, which underwent relatively minor changes. Sydenham lost Keilor Downs on its eastern boundary. These changes increased the Labor margin from 10.3% to 11.5%.
History
Keilor was first created for the 1976 election. It has always been won by the ALP.
Keilor was first won in 1976 by Jack Ginifer. He had been an MP since winning a by-election in the seat of Grant in 1966. Grant was abolished in 1967 and he moved to the new seat of Deer Park, which he held until 1976, when Deer Park itself was abolished, and he moved to Keilor. Ginifer was appointed a minister in the new Labor state government in April 1982, but resigned from Parliament a month later, and died two months after that.
George Seitz won the 1982 by-election, and has held the seat ever since. Seitz never achieved ministerial office in the Cain, Kirner, Bracks or Brumby governments, and faced allegations of local branch-stacking in his later years in office. Seitz managed to gain an exemption in 2006 from ALP rules requiring MPs to retire at 65. Facing withdrawal of his preselection, he announced he would retire at the 2010 election.
Keilor was won in 2010 by Labor candidate Natalie Hutchins.
Candidates
- Alex Schlotzer (Greens)
- John Varano (Liberal)
- Natalie Hutchins (Labor)
- Nadia Christofidis (Australian Christians)
- Shaun McKerral (Voice for the West)
Assessment
Sydenham is a safe Labor seat.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Hutchins | Labor | 22,943 | 49.84 | -8.61 | 50.48 |
| Damon Ryder | Liberal | 14,367 | 31.21 | +6.32 | 29.65 |
| Lisa Asbury | Greens | 3,625 | 7.88 | -0.58 | 7.83 |
| Scott Amberley | Family First | 2,627 | 5.71 | -2.49 | 5.86 |
| Harpreet Walia | Independent | 2,468 | 5.36 | +5.36 | 6.18 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Hutchins | Labor | 27,788 | 60.33 | -9.08 | 61.54 |
| Damon Ryder | Liberal | 18,269 | 39.67 | +9.08 | 38.46 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Sydenham have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The ALP won large majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas with a similar vote, ranging from 62.2% to 63.6%.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 7.39 | 62.24 | 8,647 | 24.34 |
| West | 6.95 | 63.64 | 7,902 | 22.25 |
| East | 7.89 | 63.53 | 7,606 | 21.41 |
| Other votes | 8.73 | 58.21 | 11,367 | 32.00 |
An above average swing to Labor here.
Hutchins is well regarded as a local member and has earned a solid personal vote.
Labor’s pledge to remove the Melton Highway level crossing in Sydenham will win votes too.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/west/labor-pledges-to-remove-melton-highway-level-crossing-in-sydenham-if-elected-on-november-29/story-fngnvmj7-1227098368101
I disagree that Labor has “an above average swing.” People in the electorate are frustrated that the electorate has been taken for granted for decades, particularly when it was formerly known as Keilor.
Regarding Labor’s pledge to remove the Melton Hwy level crossing in Sydenham. Labor are great at making pledges during an election and not delivering.
– Where is the costing? How much is it going to cost?
– Daniel Andrews could not confirm when it would be done.
– When will it be completed?
– Out of the 50 stations pledged to be fixed in the Project 10,000 plan, where is it earmarked on the list?
– Past experience – Take the St Albans station as an example. They pledged to fix that in the early 80s and it took nearly 30 years to upgrade and fix, and it was done by a Coalition government.
I respectfully disagree that Hutchins is well regarded in the electorate and she is hardly seen in the last 4 years whereas the Liberal candidate is out there engaging the electorate and understands the people in the electorate as he grew up in the area.
AW, I understand it would be completed within the first parliamentary term.
As for the St Albans level crossing, that was actually about to start when Brumby lost and was then booted down the list by the Libs so they could ‘fix’ Brighton and others in safe Lib seats. It to this day has not been fixed (though the two crossings in St Albans are among Labor’s promised 50.
The costing for all 50 is $5-6billion. This is all publicly available.
AW of course has the right to be skeptical, as is clear in his/her obvious political bent, but it remains true that the Libs have not matched the Melton Highway level crossing removal, nor did anything substantial in four years that benefited the north-west. (I can’t think of any school, train lines or major road that were upgraded or built, but I can think of the Libs gutting local TAFEs and cutting funding to Western Health, which resulted in the closure of aged care facilities in the West).
As for the personal vote of Natalie Hutchins, I’m happy to wait and see whether the swing is above or below the average, but I’d be very confident it would be above and as a politically aware westie, I can certainly say that Natalie as both a Shadow Minister and a local member is among the most highly regarded MPs in Spring Street.
That the Libs only nominated a candidate barely eight weeks before the election says a lot about their care and expectation for Sydenham.
PJ,
This electorate has been a safe Labor seat for over 30 years. I would appreciate if you could please identify what the Labor party has done for it.
I am skeptical to believe that the Melton Hwy level crossing is going to be completed in the first parliamentary term as past performance suggests with the St Albans level crossing. What happened when it was pledged by Labor to repair it in 1982? From there, Labor were in power till the earlier 90s and still did not fix it.
Under the Kennett government in 1999, it was ready to start work on the St Albans level crossing but lost power to Labor. From there again, another opportunity to fix it was possible with Labor in power from 1999 – 2010 and given the electorate (as it was known as Keilor) was held by Labor, why did it not still fulfil its original obligation to fix the St. Albans level crossing?
It was the Libs that funded the removal of the level crossing in St. Albans after 11 years of neglect by the former Labor government and work to fix it begins at the end of the year – http://www.brimbank.starweekly.com.au/story/1807080/st-albans-level-crossing-to-go-as-minister-fast-tracks-plan/?nav=Y2F0X2lkLzE2
Where was it made official by Labor, particularly the opposition leader that the Melton Hwy crossing is going to be completed in the first term? According to a recent article published by the Star Weekly, it outlined “visiting the level crossing.. [last] Wednesday morning, Mr Andrews said it would be one of 50 dangerous level crossings removed across the state as part of Labor’s Project 10,000 plan – but he could not confirm when it would get done, how much it would cost or whether an overpass or underpass would be built.” If the costing is public, please illustrate where the actual costing is, particularly for the Melton Hwy level crossing.
If you’re going to bring up education, the Libs have increased TAFE funding by 23% and set forth $1.2 billion for skills training a year – I gather that is 50% more than Labor’s last budget.
In the North-West, the Libs have allocated $15 million to the Sunshine Hospital to build an Intensive Care Unit and $10 million for a new Cardiac Unit at the hospital. They also funded a new children’s centre in Avondale Heights for $2.3 million and providing first aid training for all year 9 students. Furthermore, the Libs helped fund the upgrade for the Parkwood Green Children’s and Community Centre in Taylors Hill.
Yes, the Libs nominated a candidate 2 months before the election but where was Natalie Hutchins in the last 4 years? Yes, she has a presence and office in the electorate but I never seen her out there engaging with local residents nor do many of my fellow residents who live and own businesses in the area. The Lib candidate is out there in the electorate meeting and engaging with people. At the end of the day, I do not know any of the candidates personally as you have suggested that you know Natalie Hutchins personally but I have seen the Lib candidate on numerous occasions in various parts of the electorate campaigning, meeting and listening to local residents while I have seen Labor campaigning out there time to time but no where to be seen is Natalie Hutchins.
In response to PJ regarding reputation:
http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/10544-natalie-hutchins-visits-port-of-hastings-for-the-first-time-after-521-days-as-shadow-ports-minister.html
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/jetsetting-victorian-mps-use-electorate-allowances-to-pay-for-overseas-travel/story-fni0fit3-1226986666758?nk=64e19338fb9216ec120bf83765b91d01
http://www.afr.com/p/blogs/rear_window/hutchins_dines_out_1XCz5MKZ5n85QvyxhrKOzM
http://www.theage.com.au/national/shorten-backs-safe-seat-for-former-staffer-20090613-c6tb.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/grants-nothing-to-do-with-me-says-della-bosca/2008/04/10/1207420587443.html
Simply nonsense. The Libs slashed TAFE funding by hundreds of millions and then with an election coming up ‘restored’ a small percentage of what they’d slashed.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/victorian_government_cuts_tafe_funding_aWPagR0MKiyrpPHxBByGtO
Likewise with healthcare in the West, the increases in funding for Western Health were linked to CPI, not to growth, which is of course much higher here in the West. This led to jobs being lost at Sunshine Hospital and Aged Care Homes, such as Reg Geary in Melton being closed.
As for the St Albans crossing, it’s much like the TAFE ‘increases’ – it only happened after they’d already delayed it to give more funds for less worthwhile projects, such as the Brighton removal
The Libs have ignored the west to send money to their safe and marginal seats. It was no surprise that of the 20 schools the Libs promised to upgrade, just one was in the West (or a non-marginal Labor seat for that matter).
It’s clear we disagree, but my prediction is that seats in the north and west of Melbourne will swing heavily to Labor because the public in those areas believe (rightly, in my opinion), that they’ve been dudded by this Government.
PJ: you conveniently ignore the question of what Labor has done for this electorate in the last 30+ years it’s been in power. The answer is “NOTHING” besides lining their own pockets. It’s no wonder additional parties are standing up and demanding a voice for the west! I hope to see Labor voted out in my lifetime, but it looks unlikely with mindless sheeple like you voting them back in again and again.
Muckraking and name calling, probably all the same person. Grow up.
Don’t worry PJ libs just can’t handle that there on the way out in Victoria. I’m sure they would disagree if you ever claim a safe lib neglects their electorate. I agree with you the swing in 2010 was substantial and given there should be a sophomore surge to labor here the swing will be bigger then the average. But this would be a marginal seat if the libs bothered to care about the area…
The Liberal candidate here has quit the race.
http://m.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-2014-sydenham-liberal-candidate-john-varano-resigns-20141116-11nmk7.html
Hmmm I guess that means the libs didn’t take this seat seriously then?
All this talk about removing level crossings in the area, in particular at StAlbans, is like a revolving door…every single government that has promised a fix for the last 3 decades has failed to do so, thus Labor making this promise will result in the same inaction…the same would happen if the Libs got in, so let’s just remove this ‘promise’ as a pie-in-the-sky pitch to win over any new voters in the area. The one’s that have been around for some time now this fix would never happen.