Sunbury – Victoria 2014

ALP 6.5%

Incumbent MP
Sunbury is a new seat created out of parts of Macedon and Yuroke, although both of those seats will continue to exist, and both sitting members are retiring at the upcoming election.

  • Liz Beattie (Labor), Member for Yuroke since 2002. Previously Member for Tullamarine 1999-2002.
  • Joanne Duncan (Labor), Member for Macedon since 2002. Previously Member for Gisborne 1999-2002.

Geography
North-western Melbourne. Sunbury covers the town of the same name as well as the suburbs of Diggers Rest, Bulla, Gladstone Park, Gowanbrae, Tullamarine and parts of Westmeadows. The electorate also covers Melbourne’s main airport. Most of the electorate lies in the City of Hume, along with small parts in Brimbank, Melton and Moreland council areas.

Map of Sunbury's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Sunbury’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Sunbury is a new electorate made up of parts of a number of existing electorates. Most of the electorate’s population comes from two pre-existing electorates. Those suburbs to the northwest of Melbourne Airport were previously contained in Macedon, while those to the southeast of the airport were contained in Yuroke. Small parts of Sunbury were previously contained in Melton, Niddrie and Pascoe Vale.

History
Sunbury is a new electorate, and the name has not previously been used.

The electorate of Macedon was created in 2002 in part as a successor to the electorate of Gisborne. Labor MP Joanne Duncan has held Macedon since 2002, after first winning Gisborne in 1999.

Yuroke was also created in 2002, replacing the seat of Tullamarine. Tullamarine had existed since 1992. Liberal MP Bernie Finn had represented Tullamarine from 1992 to 1999. Finn returned to Parliament as a member of the Legislative Council representing the Western Metropolitan region in 2006, and was re-elected in 2010.

Labor’s Liz Beattie won Tullamarine in 1999. She shifted in Yuroke in 2002, and has represented that seat ever since.

Candidates
Neither Labor MP covering the area will be running for re-election in 2014.

Assessment
Sunbury is a new seat, but on paper is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2010 election result

Party Post-redistribution estimate %
Labor 45.75
Liberal 37.70
Greens 8.21
Family First 3.06
Democratic Labor 1.32
Country Alliance 0.87
Socialist Alliance 0.04
Other independents 3.06

2010 two-party-preferred result

Party Post-redistribution estimate %
Labor 56.50
Liberal 43.50
Polling places in Sunbury at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in blue, South in red, Sunbury East in yellow, Sunbury West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Sunbury at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in blue, South in red, Sunbury East in yellow, Sunbury West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Sunbury have been divided into four areas. Two of these areas are clustered in the Sunbury area, and these booths are split into Sunbury East and Sunbury West. Polling places in the far south-eastern corner of the electorate have been grouped as “South”, with the remaining polling places grouped as “Central”.

The ALP won a two-party-preferred majority in all four areas, ranging from a slim 50.4% majority in Sunbury East to 64.5% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 6.5% in Sunbury East to 10.4% in the south of the electorate.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
Sunbury West 6.86 53.66 8,867 25.40
South 10.40 64.49 8,837 25.31
Sunbury East 6.52 50.39 7,209 20.65
Central 7.46 55.31 1,541 4.41
Other votes 8.93 55.72 8,457 24.22
Two-party-preferred votes in Sunbury at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Sunbury area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern Sunbury at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern Sunbury at the 2010 Victorian state election.

9 COMMENTS

  1. Sunbury is basically the old seat of Tullamarine re-created. I think Tullamarine contained Greenvale as well, which is why the Liberals had a chance of winning it in good years.

  3. Medcraft has a high local profile and will poll well, however, I think he will preference the Liberal candidate, Hagan. It should make for a closer than anticipated result – Hagan has been out and about and campaigning really hard, while ALP candidate Josh Bull has been much quieter.

  4. I’ve actually seen quite a lot of Bull out here. He works/worked for Rob Mitchell and has as such been able to mix work with campaigning quite well.

  5. Hagan has been quite visible. She has been canvassing at the train station, in shopping strips, her signs are everywhere and she has opened a shopfront on Sunbury’s main drag. I know also she and her campaign team have been targeteting the electorate’s southern sections, such as Westmeadows and Gladstone Park.

    In contrast, I have not seen Bull or his team around town (certainly they have not been present at morning commuter peak) and the only sign I haver spotted is on Gap Road.

    With the swing apparently on against the Libs, I still think Bull will win.

  6. There are too many Labor rusted-ons in the south of the seat for the Liberals to be any chance.

    They will need to wait until the seat moves completely north of the airport, probably the next redistribution. Then they’ll have a shot. But not on these boundaries.

  7. I know it’s been mentioned above, but it is remarkable how closely this seat resembles the old Tullamarine. c.f. The map on the ABC profile page. Tullamarine was created for the 1992 election; I’m surprised the district on Melbourne’s fringe still occupies a similar size more than two decades later.

    I was under the false impression that the redistribution had created two new safe Labor seats in Melbourne’s north and west. But on closer inspection, Sunbury’s not Werribee. Sitting between Oakleigh and Narre Warren South on the pendulum, it would be highly competitive if the Napthine government was more popular.

  8. Hagan lost a bunch of votes as a result of her prissy, ‘I’m very important and you have to treat me as important’ behaviour in the last week. People make simple mistakes when they’re busy and when they do, they don’t need the likes of Hagan carrying on like Lady Muck over the ingredients of her fast-food not being exactly how she envisioned it.

  9. Dunno about that Jeff, Sunbury is one of the few seats to buck the trend and swing a pro-Liberal swing.

    As the suburb of Sunbury continues to grow, the seat will shed its safest Labor areas in Gladstone Park and Tullamarine, and become a true marginal.

Comments are closed.