LIB 4.9%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Katos, since 2010.
Geography
Western Victoria. South Barwon covers areas to the south of Geelong, including the southern suburbs of Geelong, Torquay, Bellbrae, Moriac and Mount Duneed. A majority of the voters live in the City of Greater Geelong, and the electorate also covers eastern parts of Surf Coast Shire.
Redistribution
South Barwon lost Barwon Heads on its eastern border to Bellarine, and underwent changes on its northern border, where the border is now aligned with the Barwon River. These changes saw South Barwon lose the Geelong suburb of Belmont and gain Highton in exchange. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 3.9% to 4.9%.
History
South Barwon was created for the 1976 election. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 until 2002, when the ALP won the seat.
South Barwon was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He had previously won the seat of Bellarine when it was created in 1967 and held it until it was abolished in 1976. He held South Barwon until his retirement in 1982.
The Liberal Party’s Harley Dickinson won South Barwon in 1982. He held the seat until 1992. In 1992 he resigned from the Liberal Party to contest South Barwon as an independent, but lost the seat to the Liberal candidate, Alister Paterson.
Paterson was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he lost to former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield. South Barwon’s demographics had changed as Geelong had grown, and become a marginal seat. Crutchfield was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Labor MP Michael Crutchfield was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Katos.
Candidates
- Lisa Ashdowne (Greens)
- Jamie Overend (Animal Justice)
- Steven Thompson (Family First)
- Nick Wallis (Sex Party)
- Stephen Chara (Country Alliance)
- Andrew Katos (Liberal)
- Kevin Butler (Democratic Labour)
- Andy Richards (Labor)
Assessment
South Barwon is a marginal electorate, but Liberal MP Andrew Katos should benefit from a new personal vote which will assist him. If the election is quite close, the Labor swing may not be enough to win South Barwon.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Katos | Liberal | 20,133 | 45.93 | +4.76 | 47.20 |
| Michael Crutchfield | Labor | 15,759 | 35.95 | -7.99 | 35.48 |
| Simon Northeast | Greens | 4,208 | 9.60 | +0.56 | 9.46 |
| Heather Wellington | Independent | 1,185 | 2.70 | +2.7 | 2.39 |
| Kathleen O’Connor | Family First | 810 | 1.85 | -2.81 | 1.84 |
| Alan Barron | Democratic Labor | 577 | 1.32 | +1.32 | 1.11 |
| Tony Leen | Country Alliance | 547 | 1.25 | +1.25 | 1.23 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 323 | 0.74 | +0.74 | 0.63 |
| Keith Oakley | Independent | 295 | 0.67 | +0.67 | 0.57 |
| Other independents | 0.10 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Katos | Liberal | 23,675 | 53.94 | +6.34 | 54.90 |
| Michael Crutchfield | Labor | 20,218 | 46.06 | -6.34 | 45.10 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in South Barwon have been divided into three areas.
A majority of voters live in the Geelong urban area, and these voters were split into Grovedale and Highton. The remainder of the electorate has been grouped as “South”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas. The Liberal Party won a slim majority in Grovedale (51.6%) and the South (51.3%), and won a much larger 60.9% majority in Highton.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 5.7% in Grovedale to 14.3% in the South.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Grovedale | 5.68 | 51.63 | 9,079 | 25.31 |
| Highton | 9.06 | 60.86 | 7,171 | 19.99 |
| South | 14.33 | 51.34 | 6,573 | 18.32 |
| Other votes | 9.84 | 55.08 | 13,049 | 36.38 |
Favourable redistribution plus personal vote/sophomore surge will mean Katos should hold this seat, even though he doesn’t really strike me as a strong performer and just regurgitates what the Liberal Party tells him. Can’t speak for anyone else though.
Labor only won this seat in 2002 when it won reelection in a massive landslide. Although I think statewide Labor will win government, this isn’t an election where Labor will win in a massive landslide as they did in 2002.
South Barwon is a pretty affluent upper-middle class seat with a profile that usually favours the Liberal Party regardless of an election outcome overall.
My electorate. There were local issues against Labor in 2010 unpopular development in Barwon Heads & traffic flow problems from Geelong by-pass. The urban growth is in the southern suburbs which are archetypal mortgage-belt. Labor’s candidate is a Councillor from this area.
Clearly the most affluent and Liberal of the Geelong region seats, although it will be interesting to see how the new suburban developments change the seat over time.
Liberals have conveniently timed a few transport projects like the Princes Hwy duplication and Waurn Ponds station to open in the coming weeks, just in time for the election.
Good to see Kevin Butler ios running for DLP again.
Kevin spent all of last Victorian Election working a booth in the pouring rain. How many of the other candidates are just fly inns who will be “star candidates” but not party workers.
Commitment is evidenced by long term support not megalomania or juvenile impetuosity.
Good Work Kevin with your pedigree you will make an excellent MP.
Geelong needs true Labor men who will stand up for jobs. BOth Libs and ALP have shown that they are more supportive of a globalised free trade ideology that destroys jobs rather than protects the job we have. Evidence for this Ford and Alcoa .
DLP and Katter’s mob are only ones who support Australian Industry.
We need a return to Deakenite Compromise .
Good Luck Kevin I will be looking your way on lection night and hopefully Geelong will deliver a wake up call to Australia.
Andrew JAckson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
I had this down as another Dark Horse seat if Labor did well. Looking at the pattern of swings, it seems Labor put all their effort into nailing down Bellarine, and have come up just short here.