Northern Victoria – Victoria 2014

Incumbent MLCs

• Kaye Darveniza (Labor), since 2006. Previously MLC for Melbourne West 1999-2006.
• Damian Drum (Nationals), since 2006. Previously MLC for North West 2002-2006.
• Marg Lewis (Labor), since 2014*.
• Wendy Lovell (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for North East 2002-2006.
• Amanda Millar (Liberal), since 2013†.

*Lewis filled a vacancy caused by the resignation of Candy Broad in May 2014.
†Millar filled a vacancy caused by the resignation of Donna Petrovich in July 2013.

Geography

Northern Victoria covers a large area stretching from the South Australian border to Albury along the Murray River, as well as including the northern fringe of Melbourne. The electorate covers the main centres of Bendigo, Mildura, Swan Hill, Albury and Shepparton.

The Nationals hold five seats in the region, the Liberal Party holds three, and Labor holds three.

All three Labor seats are held by slim margins from 2.3% in Macedon to 3.2% in Bendigo East.

The Liberal Party notionally holds the redrawn seat of Yan Yean by 0.1% (the seat was held by Labor by 4% before the redistribution). The Nationals’ seats are also safe, ranging from 13.6% in Euroa to 30.2% in Murray Plains.

Redistribution
Northern Victoria expanded to cover a larger area, and the number of seats in the region was cut by one.

The seats of Swan Hill and Rodney were both abolished, and the new seat of Murray Plains was created covering part of the same area. Knock-on effects saw significant changes to other seats in the region, which included the electorate of Ripon (in the Western Victoria region) expanding north into areas previously contained in Swan Hill.

Seymour and Benalla were also completely redrawn, with most of that area absorbed into two new seats of Eildon and Euroa. Murray Valley also expanded south-east to take in parts of Benalla and was renamed Ovens Valley.

There were changes also to Benambra, Bendigo East, Bendigo West, Macedon, Mildura and Shepparton, but the seats held much of their former territory.

To make up for the reduction of one seat, the region expanded south to take in Yan Yean, on the northern fringe of Melbourne. Yan Yean had previously been part of the Northern Metropolitan region.

History
The Northern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The region produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 elections: two Labor, two Liberal and one National. The five seats were held by the same five MLCs from 2006 to 2013.

In 2013, Liberal MLC Donna Petrovich resigned to run for the federal seat of McEwen, which she lost narrowly. Petrovich is running for the seat of Macedon in 2014.

Labor MLC Candy Broad resigned earlier in 2014, and was succeeded by Marg Lewis.

2010 result

The first two Coalition candidates, and the first Labor candidate, were all elected on primary votes. The third Coalition candidate fell just short of a quota on primary votes, but only ended up winning at the end of the count by a very slim margin.

After the exclusion of minor candidates, the last seven candidates for the final two seats were as follows:

• Donna Petrovich (LIB) – 0.931 quotas
• Kaye Darveniza (ALP) – 0.627
• David Jones (GRN) – 0.478
• Steven Threlfall (CA) – 0.416
• Tristram Chellew (SEX) – 0.232
• Laurie Wintle (FF) – 0.181
• Mark Royal (DLP) – 0.131

The DLP’s preferences mostly flowed to the Country Alliance, as did those from Family First, which pushed the Country Alliance into second place.

• Petrovich (LIB) – 0.970
• Threlfall (CA) – 0.680
• Darveniza (ALP) – 0.629
• Jones (GRN) – 0.480
• Chellew (SEX) – 0.233

The Sex Party’s preferences also flowed to the Country Alliance.

• Petrovich (LIB) – 0.972
• Threlfall (CA) – 0.901
• Darveniza (ALP) – 0.631
• Jones (GRN) – 0.484

Greens preferences elected the Labor candidate:

• Darveniza (ALP) – 1.079
• Petrovich (LIB) – 0.980
• Threlfall (CA) – 0.910

The small amount of Labor preferences flowed to both remaining candidates, with a majority flowing to the Country Alliance:

• Petrovich (LIB) – 0.997
• Threlfall (CA) – 0.971

Petrovich was elected with less than a quota, after gaining less than 4000 votes in preferences. The final gap between the Liberal and Country Alliance candidates was only 1689 votes.

Candidates

• A – Gerard Murphy – Democratic Labour
• B – Hans Paas – Palmer United Party
• C – Charlie Crutchfield – Sex Party
• D – Daniel Young – Shooters and Fishers
• E – Alan Howard – Family First
• F – Mark Horner – Cyclists Party
• G – Lola Currie – Animal Justice
• H – Robert Danieli – Country Alliance
• I – Liberal/National
  1. Wendy Lovell (Liberal)
  2. Damian Drum (Nationals)
  3. Amanda Millar (Liberal)
  4. Paul Weller (Nationals)
  5. Adrian Wolter (Liberal)
• J – Jenny O’Connor – Greens
• K – Elizabeth Crooks – People Power
• L – Tim Wilms – Liberal Democrats
• M – Tim Middleton – Rise Up Australia
• N – Labor
  1. Steve Herbert
  2. Jaclyn Simes
  3. Jamie Byron
  4. Lydia Senior
  5. Kate Sutherland

Preferences

• Antony Green’s calculator
• Geeklections analysis
• Poll Bludger summary

Assessment
The Coalition easily won two seats in 2010, and Labor won one seat.

The Coalition has a comfortable hold on two seats, while Labor has a comfortable hold on one – the other seats could be vulnerable to a minor party.

The Liberal Party came very close to losing to the Country Alliance. If the Coalition vote drops, and the Country Alliance can maintain its strong preference flow, the minor party could win their first parliamentary seat at the expense of the Liberal Party. If the Coalition vote increases very slightly, they will win three quotas on primary votes and make this question redundant.

If the Labor vote were to drop, it’s possible that the Greens could win a seat at Labor’s expense. It is also not inconceivable that, if the combined Labor/Green vote drops slightly, both the third Coalition candidate and the Country Alliance candidate could win seats.