Nepean – Victoria 2014

LIB 13.7%

Incumbent MP
Martin Dixon, since 2002. Previously Member for Dromana 1996-2002.

Geography
Mornington Peninsula. Nepean covers the southernmost part of Mornington Peninsula, including Point Nepean.

Map of Nepean's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Nepean’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Nepean maintained all of its territory from the 2010 election, and expanded east to take in Balnarring and Somers. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 14.3% to 13.7%.

History
Nepean was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Dromana, which had always been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1967.

Dromana was won in 1996 by Martin Dixon. He was re-elected in 1999. In 2002 he ran for Nepean, which had a 6.3% notional margin for the Liberal Party. He suffered a large swing, and held on with a 0.2% margin.

In 2006, Dixon gained a 9% swing, taking Nepean out of the marginal seat category. Dixon increased his margin further to 14.3% in 2010.

Martin Dixon has served as Minister for Education since 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Nepean is a safe Liberal seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Martin Dixon Liberal 20,700 59.74 +5.15 58.87
John Lannan Labor 9,333 26.94 -4.95 26.85
Anton Vigenser Greens 4,176 12.05 +1.22 12.77
Keith Lyon Country Alliance 439 1.27 +1.27 1.31
Sex Party 0.10
Democratic Labor 0.05
Family First 0.04
Other independents 0.02

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Martin Dixon Liberal 22,288 64.31 +4.93 63.74
John Lannan Labor 12,370 35.69 -4.93 36.26
Polling places in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in blue, South in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in blue, South in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Nepean have been divided into three parts: east, south and west. Most of the population lies along the Port Phillip Bay foreshore, and these polling places were split into east and west, with the west covering the tip of the peninsula. The ‘South’ area covers those on Western Port, Bass Strait and further from the waterfront.

The Liberal Party won a large two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.5% in the south to 64.1% in the west.

The Greens polled strongly in Nepean, ranging from 11% in the east to 19.9% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
East 11.03 62.38 9,903 26.41
West 13.53 64.06 6,790 18.11
South 19.87 61.51 5,807 15.49
Other votes 10.82 65.35 14,999 40.00
Two-party-preferred votes in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Nepean at the 2010 Victorian state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. First candidate to formally nominate for this seat with the VEC is independent David Stanton. I have no further details re him.

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