Mulgrave – Victoria 2014

ALP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Daniel Andrews, since 2002.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Mulgrave includes Mulgrave, Wheelers Hill and parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Noble Park North and Springvale. Mulgrave covers the south-eastern corner of the City of Monash and northern parts of the City of Greater Dandenong.

Map of Mulgrave's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Mulgrave’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Mulgrave shifted north, gaining the remainder of Wheelers Hill from Scoresby on the northern end of the electorate. In exchange, Mulgrave lost areas on its western boundary to Oakleigh and areas on its eastern boundary to Dandenong. No changes were made to Mulgrave’s southern boundary. These changes cut the ALP margin from 8.5% to 2.4%.

History
Mulgrave previously existed as a Liberal seat from 1958 to 1967, and was re-established in 2002. The original seat was considered a marginal Labor seat, with a 4.4% margin, but it was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Daniel Andrews, who gained an 11.8% swing.

Andrews was re-elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. He served as Minister for Health in the Brumby government from 2007 to 2010. Andrews was elected to a third term in Mulgrave in 2010, and shortly after the election was elected as Leader of the Opposition.

Candidates

Assessment
Mulgrave is a very marginal electorate, but considering the likely swing to Labor, and Daniel Andrews’ high profile as Labor leader, should see Mulgrave stay in the Labor column.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Daniel Andrews Labor 15,392 50.68 -8.13 44.87
Courtney Mann Liberal 11,166 36.77 +8.18 43.41
John Janetzki Greens 2,173 7.16 +0.74 7.28
Jim Johnson Family First 1,041 3.43 -2.75 3.00
Geraldine Kokoszka Democratic Labor 596 1.96 +1.96 1.44

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Daniel Andrews Labor 17,779 58.48 -7.29 52.40
Courtney Mann Liberal 12,623 41.52 +7.29 47.60
Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three parts: North, South-East and South-West.

The ALP won solid majorities in the south-east (62.1%) and the south-west (59.7%). In the north, the Liberal Party won a solid 60.4% majority.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 7.43 39.58 9,801 27.38
South-East 6.47 62.08 9,055 25.30
South-West 6.69 59.72 7,298 20.39
Other votes 8.35 49.95 9,643 26.94
Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Much higher profile now and the new areas were basically uncontested by Labor last time. They’ll put in the effort to make sure this one is nailed down. I’d guess a solid above-average Labor swing.

  2. I’d say if the mood come November is definitively for a labor government then there would be an above average swing probably enough to give this a double digit margin

  3. If labor looks certain to form government come November then I’d expect the margin here to be double digit

  5. Anyone else see a similarity between this area and Parramatta in NSW ? Both have very poor areas with admittedly high crime rates in the south (Noble Park/Springvale comparable to Merrylands, Guildford, Fairfield) are practically the definition of middle class (Parramatta/Nth Parra, northmead, wentworthville to mulgrave) and upper middle class areas like Wheelers Hill/Mount Waverley/Glen Waverley the north akin to Epping/Carlingford near Parramatta. Even nearby to Mulgrave, Rowville is comparable to Baulkham Hills near Parramatta.
    Although Mulgrave is far from the historic, dense, commercial, financial hib/CBD that Parramatta is (nowhere in Melbourne really compares).
    Both areas are also very multicultural, with many Indian and Chinese.
    Politically this would lead to a marginal labor, which is what is expected anyway.

  6. Oddly, this didn’t seem to swing much at all. Certainly nothing outside the ordinary for this part of Melbourne.

  7. On first preferences he got a pretty big 5% swing enough to give him a majority without relying on preferences

Comments are closed.