Mount Waverley – Victoria 2014

LIB 8.6%

Incumbent MP
Michael Gidley, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers most of Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley. The entire electorate lies in the northern part of the City of Monash.

Map of Mount Waverley's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Mount Waverley’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Mount Waverley expanded east, gaining more of Glen Waverley from Scoresby. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 7.4% to 8.6%.

History
Mount Waverley was created prior to the 2002 election. Based on 1999 election results, Mount Waverley had a notional Liberal margin of 9.1%.

At the 2002 election, the seat was won by the ALP’s Maxine Morand with a 2.3% margin. In 2006 her margin was cut to 0.3%.

At the 2010 election, Morand was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Gidley.

Candidates

Assessment
Mount Waverley was a very marginal Labor seat before the last election. The current margin is reasonably safe, and the Liberal Party should benefit from a sophmore surge, which could cancel out any general anti-Liberal swing. It’s likely that the Liberal Party will retain this seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Gidley Liberal 17,126 51.34 +6.96 52.52
Maxine Morand Labor 11,420 34.23 -7.58 33.47
Josh Fergeus Greens 2,548 7.64 -0.38 7.60
John Canavan Family First 815 2.44 -1.02 2.46
Lisa Chevallier Sex Party 578 1.73 +1.73 1.58
Des Kelly Democratic Labor 535 1.60 +1.6 1.46
Ali Khan Independent 336 1.01 +1.01 0.92

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Gidley Liberal 19,177 57.45 +7.81 58.60
Maxine Morand Labor 14,204 42.55 -7.81 41.40
Polling places in Mount Waverley at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mount Waverley at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Waverley have been divided into three parts: East, South and West.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with about 57% in the south and west, and 61% in the east.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.1% in the east to 7.6% in the south and west.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
West 7.64 56.61 11,273 30.77
East 7.10 60.99 8,251 22.52
South 7.60 56.75 6,274 17.12
Other votes 7.92 59.90 10,841 29.59
Two-party-preferred votes in Mount Waverley at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mount Waverley at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. could be a surprise, changing demographics and alp selecting candidate of East asian background may swing the large Chinese population to the alp.

  3. While Glen Waverley has a growing Asian population, it’s quite an affluent middle-class demographic. I guess kind of the equivalent of Epping or Chatswood in Sydney…..

    Was actually in Glen Waverley today. The Asian restaurants were split about 50-50 between Gidley and Yang in advertising signs…..

  5. Expecting this seat to be really close. Won’t be surprisef if it goes either way, although it is of course more likely to remain with the Libs. I think it will be the Liberals most marginal seat after the election. Either that or Ringwood, although I feel the East-West Link is very popular in Ringwood and that could have only a small swing to Lablr compared to thr state.

Comments are closed.