Morwell – Victoria 2014

NAT 13.3%

Incumbent MP
Russell Northe, since 2006.

Geography
Latrobe Valley. Morwell covers most of the City of Latrobe, specifically the towns of Morwell and Traralgon, but not Moe. It also covers a small part of the Shire of Wellington. In addition to Morwell and Traralgon, Morwell electoral district covers the towns of Boolarra, Churchill, Newborough, Tyers and Yallourn North.

Map of Morwell's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Morwell’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Most of Morwell’s boundaries were left unchanged. Morwell expanded on its western boundary to take in Newborough, which was previously Narracan, and moved the boundary right up to the edge of Moe. These changes cut the National margin from 16.3% to 13.3%.

History
Morwell has existed as an electoral district since 1955. It was first held by the Liberal Party until 1970, and by the Labor Party from 1970 until the 2006 election, when it was won by the current Nationals MP Russell Northe.

Morwell was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Jim Balfour. He became a cabinet minister in 1964, and in 1967 moved to the new seat of Narracan. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a cabinet minister until 1977.

Balfour was succeeded in Morwell by fellow Liberal Archie Tanner. A former amateur boxing champion, Tanner held the seat for one term, losing Morwell in 1970 to the 27-year-old Derek Amos of the ALP.

Amos held the seat until his resignation in 1981, when he was succeeded at a by-election by the 31-year-old Valerie Callister, also of the ALP.

Callister retired in 1988, and was succeeded by Keith Hamilton, who served as Minister for Agriculture and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs.

Hamilton retired at the 2002 election, and was succeeded by Brendan Jenkins. He held the seat with a 4.9% margin. In 2002, the Liberal Party polled 19% of the primary vote, with the Nationals polling 12%. The Nationals had been the primary opposition to the ALP in Morwell as recently as 1996, but in 1999 the Liberals had become the main opposition, with the Nationals not contesting the seat.

In 2006, the Nationals polled almost 28% of the primary vote, with the Liberals on 14%. After preferences, the Nationals’ Russell Northe won the seat with a 2.2% margin. Northe was re-elected much more comfortably in 2010, with no Liberal opponent.

Candidates

Assessment
Morwell on paper looks like a reasonably safe Nationals seat, but was held by Labor up until 2006, and you can’t rule out the possibility of a Labor resurgence in a strong election year. We also don’t know what the impact of Latrobe Valley First will be – if they run a strong independent, this electorate could be primed for a change.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Russell Northe Nationals 19,200 56.11 +28.52 49.22
Graeme Middlemiss Labor 9,752 28.50 -12.07 31.19
Dan Jordan Greens 1,645 4.81 -0.26 5.06
Peter Kelly Country Alliance 1,226 3.58 +3.58 3.71
Lou Sigmund Independent 968 2.83 +2.83 2.48
Glyn Baker Independent 851 2.49 +2.49 2.18
Peter Gardner Independent 574 1.68 +1.68 1.47
Liberal 4.31
Other independents 0.37

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Russell Northe Nationals 22,726 66.26 +14.14 63.30
Graeme Middlemiss Labor 11,572 33.74 -14.14 36.70
Polling places in Morwell at the 2010 Victorian state election. Morwell in green, North in red, South in yellow, Traralgon in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Morwell at the 2010 Victorian state election. Morwell in green, North in red, South in yellow, Traralgon in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Morwell have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the two main towns of Traralgon and Morwell have been grouped together. Those polling places north of Traralgon and Morwell have been grouped as ‘north’, and those south of the main towns have been grouped as ‘south’.

The Nationals (including Liberal votes in those areas transferred from Narracan) won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 53.5% in the North and 54.8% in Morwell to 74.6% in Traralgon.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Traralgon 4.35 74.58 10,970 28.12
North 5.05 53.51 5,638 14.45
South 6.84 65.01 4,328 11.10
Morwell 5.17 54.80 3,576 9.17
Other votes 5.03 61.26 14,494 37.16
Two-party-preferred votes in Morwell at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Morwell at the 2010 Victorian state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting that Val Callister left politics to go back to public servant regional eventually becoming local head of DHS. I think Labor have this down as a possibility though their candidate is only 23, but local coal mine fire a very big issue.

  2. the vote here is a typical……… this seat should be labor under most circumstances and safe labor in a good year………this is the question……. and the result could be up in the air

  4. I’ve heard whispers that this seat is in play, though given the margin I find it hard to believe.

    The Bookies have it as $1.60 Nat and $2.25 ALP, which suggests it’s not too far from line ball.

    Certainly there is anger about how Napthine handled the mine fire crisis. Who knows, this could just be the dark horse on election night?

  6. Tracie Lund has a good chance at this seat, she is a true Independent & her platform is what the community has asked for through kitchen table conversations.

  7. There is a sufficient base of natural ALP voters here that it is surprising they aren’t taking it more seriously – do they really expect a 23yo ALP staffer who failed his BA at Melbourne to be received well here?

Comments are closed.