LIB 1.1%
Incumbent MP
James Merlino (ALP), since 2002.
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Monbulk covers suburbs in the outer east of Melbourne, and in the Dandenong Range, including Ferny Creek, Macclesfield, Menzies Creek, Monbulk, Montrose, Mt Dandenong, Olinda, Sassafras, Selby, Tecoma and Upwey. The electorate covers the south-western corner of the Yarra Ranges Shire, and a small part of the City of Knox.
Redistribution
Monbulk gained areas to the north and south of its previous borders, and lost its westernmost suburbs. Monbulk lost The Basin and parts of Bayswater and Boronia to Bayswater, gained parts of Kilsyth and Mooroolbark from Kilsyth, and gained Belgrave South and Narre Warren East from Gembrook. These changes flipped Monbulk from a Labor seat with a 1.9% margin to a notional Liberal seat with a 1.1% margin.
History
Monbulk was first created at the 1967 election. The seat has alternated between being held by the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Bill Borthwick. He had previously held the seat of Scoresby since a 1960 by-election. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1967 until 1982, serving as Deputy Premier from 1981 until his defeat in 1982.
Borthwick was defeated by the ALP’s Neil Pope in 1982. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1988 to 1992, when he was defeated by Steve McArthur of the Liberal Party. McArthur was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he suffered a 10.8% swing against him and lost his seat to the ALP’s James Merlino, who won the seat with a 8.3% margin in 2002, which was cut to 6.7% in 2006.
James Merlino served as a junior minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010. In 2010, Merlino held on against a 4.65% swing to the Liberal Party.
Candidates
- Ana Rojas (Rise Up Australia)
- Jordan Crook (Independent)
- James Merlino (Labor)
- Mark Verschuur (Liberal)
- Amelia Mason (Family First)
- Mike Clarke (Greens)
- Jennifer McAdam (Animal Justice)
- Craig Jenkin (Country Alliance)
- Ron Prendergast (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Monbulk is a very marginal electorate. While the seat is notionally a Liberal seat, Merlino’s position as the incumbent MP should give him a good shot at winning the seat. The seat will likely be won by the party that forms government.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Matt Mills | Liberal | 14,506 | 42.55 | +5.16 | 44.59 |
| James Merlino | Labor | 12,318 | 36.14 | -4.47 | 34.14 |
| Jo Tenner | Greens | 5,244 | 15.38 | -0.78 | 15.22 |
| Elizabeth Coyne | Democratic Labor | 618 | 1.81 | +1.81 | 1.52 |
| Rajeeva Gunasekera | Family First | 610 | 1.79 | -2.37 | 2.09 |
| Simon Picknell | Country Alliance | 528 | 1.55 | +1.55 | 0.95 |
| Lawrence Mobsby | Independent | 264 | 0.77 | +0.77 | 0.43 |
| Sex Party | 0.59 | ||||
| National | 0.10 | ||||
| Other independents | 0.38 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| James Merlino | Labor | 17,684 | 51.88 | -4.65 | 48.90 |
| Matt Mills | Liberal | 16,404 | 48.12 | +4.65 | 51.10 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Monbulk have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
The ALP won a majority in the east (50.3%) and the south (54.6%), while the Liberal Party won a larger 58.3% majority in the north.
The Greens polled very strongly in Monbulk, with a vote ranging from 7.1% in the north to 19.6% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| South | 19.55 | 45.42 | 11,551 | 31.04 |
| East | 17.13 | 49.70 | 7,389 | 19.86 |
| North | 7.08 | 58.32 | 7,377 | 19.83 |
| Other votes | 14.85 | 52.72 | 10,892 | 29.27 |
This will be a tough ask for Labor to regain following the redistribution, even with Merlino’s name recognition. I’d predict a win for the Libs.
Completely disagree considering it’s only 1.1% and polls predict the swing to labor to be much greater especially in the Melbourne area. Merlino is the incumbent and probably has greater recognition in the electorate. Greater then average swing to labor here and the libs will give up in pursuit of other seats
The Greens vote, & preferences will be very significant. Has the Greens vote dropped about 30% nationwide as the polls suggest ??. Merlino has lost his personal vote from old areas. I’d guess he’ll not get, or make much personal vote in his new areas. Looking at it all in all i’d reckon he needs to increase his primary vote about 5% to retain . Certainly one to watch, & will be fascinating
Craig Jenkin is nominated here for Country Alliance
Jordan Crook is a candidate for the unregistered Save the Planet Party. He has a Twitter profile here
http://twitter.com/JCrooka
The strong Liberal booths in the north-west have come from the old Kilsyth, which accounts for 20-25% the voters in Monbulk. Kilysth wasn’t seriously contested in 2010, Liberal David Hodgett received a 10% sophomore surge.
Perhaps the Liberal advantage is slightly overstated here.
Quite a bizarre setup for this seat. For one, I would have expected the seat to be named Belgrave, as the area surrouning Belgrave like Belgrave Heights and South, Narre Warren East, Tecoma, Selby, Upwey and Upper Ferntree Gully would make up close to if not half the population.
Also a bit strange to have Mooroolbark and Kilsyth here, especially Mooroolbark. Would seem more natural to me to have a seat stretching from Dorset Rd taking in half of Ferntree Gully and Boronia, as well as the Basin, and not having Kilsyth and Mooroolbark.
Anyway, I’m predicting a Labor victory here, mainly due to the local promises made by Merlino being much stronger and numerous than those of Verschuur, particuarly the Angliss and Maroondah hospital upgrades, Lilydale TAFE reopening and the removal of level crossings and resealing of Monbulk Rd.